Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Final — October 6, 2026
OTTStarting goaliesDET
OTTOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DETOTTDefenseDETOTTTeamDETOTT5-on-5DETOTTSpecial teamsDETOTTRecent formDETInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelDETOTTKey injuriesDETAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 6, 9:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Senators (2-0-0) visited the Red Wings (0-2-0) on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Red Wings scored 2.94 goals per game (22nd of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Senators earned 60.4% of available standings points (9th) and the Red Wings 56.1% (15th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 54.8% (3rd), Red Wings 48.6% (21st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 52.9% (5th), Red Wings 48.8% (21st). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 56.0% (4th), Red Wings 48.5% (19th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Senators +104, Red Wings -124) prices the Senators at 47% and the Red Wings at 53%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Detroit Red Wings won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Detroit Red Wings -1.5): Detroit Red Wings covered.
- Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Detroit Red Wings closed at -124 on the moneyline (a 53% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Detroit Red Wings 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Detroit Red Wings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ottawa Senators 47%, Detroit Red Wings 53%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 2:44 — Ottawa Senators goal (1-0)Ottawa Senators 47% → 62% (+15 pts)
- 1st 3:16 — Detroit Red Wings goal (1-1)Detroit Red Wings 38% → 53% (+15 pts)
- 1st 13:14 — Detroit Red Wings goal (1-2)Detroit Red Wings 53% → 69% (+16 pts)
Detroit Red Wings won after falling as low as 38% (1st 3:16).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Detroit Red Wings won 76% of G&W replays (Ottawa Senators 24%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Detroit Red Wings. Here is where that came from.
| Senators | Goals | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.0 |
| 0.8 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.8 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 1.9 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.9 |
| 0.5 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.4 |
| +0.7 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.1 |
| -0.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Samuel Ersson 31/35 · John Gibson 22/25 | -0.7 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from Detroit Red Wings's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Detroit Red Wings closed as the market favourite at 53% and won.
The line moved toward Detroit Red Wings before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Senators -1.5 (+212)
Senators +1.5 (-250)
Red Wings -110 50%
Red Wings -124 53%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 27 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 18 and the Red Wings 9.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | Senators 3, Red Wings 2 Senators won | Red Wings -130 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Red Wings 2, Senators 1 OT Red Wings won | Senators -155 underdog won | 6 under |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Senators 3, Red Wings 4 OT Red Wings won | Red Wings -125 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Red Wings 5, Senators 3 Red Wings won | Senators -155 underdog won | 6 over |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Senators 4, Red Wings 3 Senators won | Senators -135 favorite won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
Detroit Red Wings
More NHL games on October 6, 2026
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- New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 5 (Oct 6)
- St Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (Oct 6)
- Vegas Golden Knights 6, Seattle Kraken 2 (Oct 6)
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