Seattle Kraken vs Detroit Red Wings Final — October 9, 2026
SEAStarting goaliesDET
SEAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DETSEADefenseDETSEATeamDETSEA5-on-5DETSEASpecial teamsDETSEARecent formDETSEAHome and roadseason to dateDETInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SEARest & travelDETSEAKey injuriesDETAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 9, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Kraken (2-2-0) visited the Red Wings (1-2-0) on Friday, October 9 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Kraken scored 2.76 goals per game (28th of 32) and allowed 3.21 (23rd). The Red Wings scored 2.94 goals per game (22nd of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Kraken earned 48.2% of available standings points (27th) and the Red Wings 56.1% (15th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Kraken 45.4% (30th), Red Wings 48.6% (21st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Kraken 45.4% (31st), Red Wings 48.8% (21st). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Kraken 46.1% (25th), Red Wings 48.5% (19th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed at 5.5, down from 6.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kraken +125, Red Wings -150) prices the Kraken at 43% and the Red Wings at 57%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Seattle Kraken 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Seattle Kraken won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Detroit Red Wings -1.5): Seattle Kraken covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Seattle Kraken closed at +125 on the moneyline (a 43% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Detroit Red Wings 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Detroit Red Wings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Seattle Kraken 43%, Detroit Red Wings 57%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 4:00 — Detroit Red Wings goal (1-2)Detroit Red Wings 56% → 74% (+18 pts)
- 2nd 4:39 — Seattle Kraken goal (2-2)Seattle Kraken 26% → 44% (+18 pts)
- 2nd 6:59 — Seattle Kraken goal (3-2)Seattle Kraken 44% → 65% (+20 pts)
Seattle Kraken won after falling as low as 26% (2nd 4:39).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Detroit Red Wings won 60% of G&W replays (Seattle Kraken 40%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Detroit Red Wings. Here is where that came from.
| Kraken | Goals | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 3.5 |
| 1.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.5 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.3 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.0 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.8 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 1.1 |
| +2.7 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.1 |
| +1.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Philipp Grubauer 37/40 · John Gibson 10/15, Daniil Tarasov 8/9 | -2.7 |
How the margin was built, from Seattle Kraken's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Detroit Red Wings closed as the market favourite at 57% and lost.
The line moved toward Detroit Red Wings before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kraken +1.5 (-205)
Kraken +1.5 (-210)
Red Wings -141 56%
Red Wings -150 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 10 times since 2018-19: the Kraken won 4 and the Red Wings 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Red Wings 4, Kraken 3 Red Wings won | Red Wings -120 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kraken 2, Red Wings 4 Red Wings won | Red Wings -170 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Red Wings 5, Kraken 4 SO Red Wings won | Kraken -111 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Kraken 2, Red Wings 6 Red Wings won | Red Wings -175 favorite won | 6 over |
| Feb 19, 2024 | Red Wings 4, Kraken 3 OT Red Wings won | Kraken -135 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Seattle Kraken
- Seattle Kraken team stats
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- Detroit Red Wings 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (Oct 20)
Detroit Red Wings
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