Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators Final — October 31, 2026
TBStarting goaliesNSH
TBOffense2026-27 regular season to dateNSHTBDefenseNSHTBTeamNSHTB5-on-5NSHTBSpecial teamsNSHTBRecent formNSHTBHome and roadseason to dateNSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
TBRest & travelNSHTBKey injuriesNSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 31, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Lightning (8-3-1) visited the Predators (4-4-5) on Saturday, October 31 at 2:10 PM ET.
The Lightning score 3.67 goals per game (6th of 32) and allow 3.17 (15th). The Predators score 2.85 goals per game (24th of 32) and allow 3.31 (19th). The Lightning earn 70.8% of available standings points (3rd) and the Predators 50.0% (22nd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Lightning 54.9% (5th), Predators 45.8% (24th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Lightning 55.4% (5th), Predators 45.0% (28th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Lightning 52.5% (15th), Predators 50.0% (17th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lightning -175, Predators +145) prices the Lightning at 61% and the Predators at 39%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 5
Nashville Predators won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Nashville Predators +1.5): Nashville Predators covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Nashville Predators closed at +145 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Nashville Predators 5
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Lightning 61%, Nashville Predators 39%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 7:27 — Nashville Predators goal (4-4)Nashville Predators 19% → 47% (+28 pts)
- OT 0:00 — Nashville Predators period-endNashville Predators 17% → 46% (+30 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Nashville Predators game-endNashville Predators 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Nashville Predators won after falling as low as 16% (3rd 7:05).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 53% of G&W replays (Nashville Predators 47%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Lightning | Goals | Predators |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.0 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.5 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.5 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| +0.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +1.0 |
| -1.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Andrei Vasilevskiy 29/33 · Justus Annunen 22/26 | -0.9 |
How the margin was built, from Nashville Predators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Lightning -1.5 (+140)
Lightning -1.5 (+140)
Predators +142 40%
Predators +145 39%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2018-19: the Lightning won 16 and the Predators 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Predators 2, Lightning 3 Lightning won | ||
| Oct 28, 2025 | Lightning 5, Predators 2 Lightning won | Lightning -180 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Lightning 3, Predators 2 OT Lightning won | Predators -137 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Predators 2, Lightning 3 OT Lightning won | Lightning -140 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Dec 7, 2023 | Lightning 1, Predators 5 Predators won | Predators -135 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning team stats
- Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning (Nov 5)
- Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (Nov 3)
- Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (Oct 29)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 24)
Nashville Predators
More NHL games on October 31, 2026
- Chicago Blackhawks 4, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 31)
- St Louis Blues 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 31)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Islanders 0 (Oct 31)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (Oct 31)
- Ottawa Senators 5, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 31)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (Oct 31)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 31)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 31)
- Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 5 (Oct 31)
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