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NHL · October 31, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montréal Canadiens Final — October 31, 2026

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-2

Goalie Sergei Murashov Confirmed

FINAL

Montréal Canadiens

8-3-2

Goalie Jacob Fowler Confirmed

Saturday, October 31 · 7:10 PM ET

PITStarting goaliesMTL

This season

Starts

.880

Sv%

.943

.800

HDSv%

.857

−3.2

GSAx

+11.0

Last season

Starts

.897

Sv%

.908

1.000

HDSv%

.861

−1.0

GSAx

+9.9

PITOffense2026-27 regular season to dateMTL

12th3.31

GF/G

3.3112th

16th7.15

PP GF/60

2.9332nd

PITDefenseMTL

23rd3.38

GA/G

2.928th

7th5.41

PK GA/60

6.4913th

PITTeamMTL

24th46.2%

Pts%

69.2%5th

10th54.1%

xGF%

53.3%12th

13th52.0%

CF%

54.4%6th

3rd66.7%

HDCF%

58.5%8th

PIT5-on-5MTL

3rd2.91

xGF/60

2.777th

15th2.47

xGA/60

2.4211th

15th9.8%

Sh%

10.5%10th

26th89.4%

Sv%

90.9%11th

16th112.6

CF/60 (both)

111.419th

9th+0.04

GAx/G

−0.0415th

21st−0.20

GSAx/G

+0.357th

11th11.3%

Sh%

10.9%15th

23rd88.6%

Sv%

90.1%5th

PITSpecial teamsMTL

30th5.82

PP xG/60

5.1332nd

32nd55.2

PP FF/60

58.630th

27th4.5

PP min/G

4.723rd

22nd8.45

PK xGA/60

7.7813th

6th4.3

PK min/G

6.430th

PITRecent formMTL

L@ VGK 2-6L@ UTA 4-5Wvs FLA 4-0Wvs NSH 3-2OTLvs UTA 3-4

Resultsoldest to newest

OTLvs SJS 3-4W@ CHI 4-1W@ WPG 2-1W@ STL 2-0W@ DAL 5-2

Game by game

5-6-2

Record

8-3-2

2-2-1

Last 5

4-0-1

3-5-2

Last 10

7-2-1

—

Over–under

8-5

PITHome and roadseason to dateMTL

4-1-1

Home record

3-2-1

1-5-1

Road record

5-1-1

—

Home O/U

5-1

—

Road O/U

3-4

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

PITRest & travelMTL

1 day

Days of rest

1 day

477 mi767 km · straight-line from previous game (estimate)

Travel to the game

Home

PITKey injuriesMTL

Bryan Rust RWIRTrevor van Riemsdyk DIR

Players out or limited

Nick Suzuki COutIvan Demidov RWIRMike Matheson DDay-to-day

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 31, 10:10 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Penguins (5-6-2) visited the Canadiens (8-3-2) on Saturday, October 31 at 7:10 PM ET.

The Penguins score 3.31 goals per game (12th of 32) and allow 3.38 (23rd). The Canadiens score 3.31 goals per game (12th of 32) and allow 2.92 (8th). The Penguins earn 46.2% of available standings points (24th) and the Canadiens 69.2% (5th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Penguins 54.1% (10th), Canadiens 53.3% (12th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Penguins 52.0% (13th), Canadiens 54.4% (6th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Penguins 66.7% (3rd), Canadiens 58.5% (8th).

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Penguins +100, Canadiens -120) prices the Penguins at 48% and the Canadiens at 52%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montréal Canadiens 5

Montréal Canadiens won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Montréal Canadiens -1.5): Pittsburgh Penguins covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Montréal Canadiens closed at -120 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Montréal Canadiens 5

Decided

In regulation

Montréal Canadiens won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

48%Market at the close52%

Pittsburgh PenguinsMontréal Canadiens

42%Market at the open58%

From open to close the market moved 6 points toward Pittsburgh Penguins.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Penguins 48%, Montréal Canadiens 52%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 2:41 — Montréal Canadiens goal (1-1)Montréal Canadiens 37% → 52% (+15 pts)
1st 7:28 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (2-2)Pittsburgh Penguins 32% → 48% (+16 pts)
2nd 1:54 — Montréal Canadiens goal (2-3)Montréal Canadiens 52% → 70% (+18 pts)

Montréal Canadiens won after falling as low as 36% (1st 2:08).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

41%PIT

Share of G&W replays won

59%MTL

2.3

Expected goals

2.9

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 59% of G&W replays (Pittsburgh Penguins 41%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Penguins	Goals	Canadiens
1.7	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.0
0.5	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.7
0.1	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.2
2.3	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.9
0.8	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.0
0.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.2
+0.8	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+2.1
-2.1	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Sergei Murashov 22/27 · Jacob Fowler 25/29	-0.8

Bar left: Penguins gainedBar right: Canadiens gained

How the margin was built, from Montréal Canadiens's side:

Chances -0.3Finishing & goaltending +1.3Montréal Canadiens by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playPittsburgh Penguins ML +1091uLOSS -1u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Montréal Canadiens closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.

The line moved toward Pittsburgh Penguins before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenCanadiens -1.5 (+150)
Penguins +1.5 (-180)

CloseCanadiens -1.5 (+190)
Penguins +1.5 (-240)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -120 / u -102)

Close6.5 (o -120 / u +100)

Moneyline

OpenPenguins +130 42%
Canadiens -154 58%

ClosePenguins +100 48%
Canadiens -120 52%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 22 times since 2018-19: the Penguins won 13 and the Canadiens 9.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 3, 2026	Canadiens 5, Penguins 6 OT Penguins won	Canadiens -115 underdog won	6.5 over
Dec 21, 2025	Canadiens 3, Penguins 4 SO Penguins won	Penguins -115 favorite won	6.5 over
Dec 20, 2025	Penguins 0, Canadiens 4 Canadiens won	Canadiens -135 favorite won	6.5 under
Dec 11, 2025	Canadiens 4, Penguins 2 Canadiens won	Penguins -130 underdog won	6.5 under
Dec 12, 2024	Penguins 9, Canadiens 2 Penguins won	Penguins -118 favorite won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams