NC State Wolfpack vs Virginia Cavaliers Final — August 29, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
NCSURest & travelUVA
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
NC State visited Virginia on Saturday, August 29 at 3:30 PM ET.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
NC State Wolfpack 8, Virginia Cavaliers 34
Virginia Cavaliers won by 26.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Virginia Cavaliers would win >99% of the time (NC State Wolfpack <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Virginia Cavaliers. Here is where that came from.
| NC State | Points added | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 | Passingdropbacks | -0.4 |
| +1.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -7.7 |
| +6.4 | Explosive plays1 plays · 5 plays | +13.3 |
| -8.2 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -2.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.0 |
| -0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.1 |
| -4.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 2 of 2 | +5.0 |
| -15.1 | All plays | +15.1 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 9.9 points to Virginia Cavaliers. The final margin was 26.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Market
Closing line and line movement
NC State +5.5 (-108)
Virginia -219 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: NC State won 2 and Virginia 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Virginia 31, NC State 35 NC State won | ||
| Sep 22, 2023 | NC State 24, Virginia 21 NC State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
NC State Wolfpack
- NC State Wolfpack team stats
- California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack (Oct 31)
- NC State Wolfpack 28, Stanford Cardinal 31 (Oct 23)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Louisville Cardinals 28, NC State Wolfpack 31 (Oct 3)
Virginia Cavaliers
- Virginia Cavaliers team stats
- Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Oct 31)
- Duke Blue Devils 19, Virginia Cavaliers 16 (Oct 23)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Syracuse Orange 25, Virginia Cavaliers 28 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on August 29, 2026
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