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NCAAF · October 31, 2026

California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack Preview & Odds — October 31, 2026

California Golden Bears

2-5

Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

NC State Wolfpack

2-4

Quarterback CJ Bailey

Saturday, October 31 · 12:00 PM ET

CALOffense2026 regular season to dateNCSU

116th−0.066

EPA/play

+0.16034th

122nd41.9%

Success %

50.4%24th

113th19.7

PPG

25.569th

CALDefenseNCSU

104th+0.154

EPA/play allowed

+0.170110th

67th46.6%

Success % allowed

50.9%118th

121st35.1

Opp PPG

32.8112th

CALRecent formNCSU

Lvs Clemson 10-24L@ UNLV 31-39Wvs Virginia Tech 25-20Lvs Wake Forest 7-41L@ SMU 20-59

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ Vanderbilt 31-35Wvs App State 41-31Wvs Louisville 31-28Lvs Wake Forest 14-38L@ Stanford 28-31

3-5

Record

3-4

2-6

ATS

—

3-5

Over–under

—

CALHome and roadseason to dateNCSU

2-3

Home record

3-1

1-2

Road record

0-3

1-4

Home ATS

—

1-2

Road ATS

—

1-4

Home O/U

—

2-1

Road O/U

—

CALLast 10 gamesNCSU

Game by game

3-5

Last 8

—

-66

Net points

+29

—

Last 7

3-4

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

CALRest & travelNCSU

7 days

Days of rest

8 days

2,390 mi3,846 km

Travel to the game

Home

+3 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Carter-Finley Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 8 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Matchup preview

California (2-5) visits NC State (2-4) on Saturday, October 31 at 12:00 PM ET.

California has the 116th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 104th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, NC State has the 34th-ranked offense and the 110th-ranked defense. When California has the ball, a 116th-ranked offense (−0.066 EPA per play) meets a 110th-ranked defense (+0.170 allowed); when NC State has it, a 34th-ranked offense (+0.160) meets a 104th-ranked defense (+0.154 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the California offense is at 41.9% (122nd) and the NC State offense at 50.4% (24th). California scores 19.7 points per game (113th) and allows 35.1 (121st); NC State scores 25.5 (69th) and allows 32.8 (112th).

California is 3-5 and 2-6 against the spread; its last game was a 59-20 loss to SMU. NC State is 3-4; its last game was a 31-28 loss to Stanford.

NC State is a 7-point favorite at home against California. The spread opened at NC State -7.5. The total is 56.5, down from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (California +220, NC State -275) prices California at 30% and NC State at 70%.

Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.

Market

Odds and line movement

Spreadmoved 0.5

OpenNC State -7.5 (-110)
California +7.5 (-110)

NowNC State -7 (-111)
California +7 (-109)

Totaldown 1

Open57.5 (o -109 / u -111)

Now56.5 (o -110 / u -109)

Moneyline

OpenCalifornia +250 27%
NC State -312 73%

NowCalifornia +220 30%
NC State -275 70%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Best available prices on Oct 28

California +7-108DraftKings
NC State -7-102Caesars
Over 56.5-108Novig
Under 56.5+100Novig
California+230BetRivers
NC State-233Novig

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Players to watch

California

QB · Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

Attempts219
Completion %68.0%33rd
Passing yards1,55593rd
Yards per attempt7.1150th
TD–INT10–5

Leading rusher (RB) · Adam Mohammed

Rushing yards336158th
Season line73 carries, 336 yds, 3 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Chase Hendricks

Receiving yards49854th
Season line54 catches, 498 yds, 3 TD

Leading tackler (DB) · Isaiah Crosby

Tackles46183rd

NC State

QB · CJ Bailey

Attempts219
Completion %65.3%73rd
Passing yards1,76352nd
Yards per attempt8.170th
TD–INT11–4

Leading rusher (RB) · Jayden Scott

Rushing yards358141st
Season line62 carries, 358 yds, 4 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Keenan Jackson

Receiving yards45674th
Season line30 catches, 456 yds, 6 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Popo Aguirre

Tackles6047th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 28, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	California	NC State
Early-down success rateCalifornia offense vs NC State defense	39.8%110th	49.1%131st
Early-down success rateNC State offense vs California defense	42.0%53rd	42.6%78th
3rd-down conversion rateCalifornia offense vs NC State defense	37.3%96th	41.4%83rd
3rd-down conversion rateNC State offense vs California defense	42.2%90th	51.9%11th
Explosive play rateCalifornia offense vs NC State defense	5.8%108th	9.1%128th
Explosive play rateNC State offense vs California defense	11.0%137th	6.1%96th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	62.2%5th-highest	52.1%57th-highest

On 3rd down California converts 37.3% (96th) against a NC State defense allowing 41.4% (83rd).

On 3rd down NC State converts 51.9% (11th) against a California defense allowing 42.2% (90th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	California	NC State
Head coach	Tosh Lupoi	Todd Goebbel (interim) (interim)
Tenureat this school	1st season	1st season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	3–5	0–0
Career recordas an FBS head coach	3–5	0–0
Offensive coordinator	Pat McCann	Kurt Roper
Defensive coordinator	Da'Von Brown / Michael Hutchings	D. J. Eliot / Charlton Warren

Staff list as of October 27, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 1 time since 2021: California won 0 and NC State 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 19, 2024	NC State 24, California 23 NC State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Result

After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.

Teams