Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs NC State Wolfpack Final — October 10, 2026
WAKEOffense2026 regular season to dateNCSU
WAKEDefenseNCSUWAKERecent formNCSUWAKEHome and roadseason to dateNCSUWAKELast 10 gamesNCSURest & travelrest and travel
WAKERest & travelNCSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Wake Forest (4-1) visited NC State (2-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET.
Wake Forest has the 12th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 44th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, NC State has the 39th-ranked offense and the 103rd-ranked defense. When Wake Forest has the ball, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.285 EPA per play) meets a 103rd-ranked defense (+0.160 allowed); when NC State has it, a 39th-ranked offense (+0.145) meets a 44th-ranked defense (−0.009 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Wake Forest offense is at 52.5% (16th) and the NC State offense at 50.6% (28th). Wake Forest scores 36.6 points per game (17th) and allows 23.0 (49th); NC State scores 27.8 (59th) and allows 32.0 (106th).
Wake Forest is 4-1 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 57-3 win over Stanford. NC State is 3-2; its last game was a 31-28 win over Louisville.
Wake Forest closed as a 3.5-point road favorite, with NC State getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 56.5, down from 61.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wake Forest -175, NC State +145) prices Wake Forest at 61% and NC State at 39%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14
Wake Forest Demon Deacons won by 24.
- Against the closing spread (NC State Wolfpack +3.5): Wake Forest Demon Deacons covered.
- Combined score 52 vs the closing total of 56.5: Under.
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons closed at -175 on the moneyline (a 61% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Wake Forest Demon Deacons 61%, NC State Wolfpack 39%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:42 — NC State Wolfpack ball, 3rd & 11 at NCSU 24No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NCSU30 fumbled by #11 C.Bailey at NCSU27 forced by #23 V.Firenze recovered by WF #8 B.Johnson…Wake Forest Demon Deacons 65% → 76% (+11 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 8:17 — NC State Wolfpack ball, 3rd & 5 at WAKE 24No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep right to #82 C.Robinson caught at WF01, for 24 yards to the WF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WF H…NC State Wolfpack 27% → 35% (+8 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:18 — Wake Forest Demon Deacons ball, 3rd & 8 at NCSU 11No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass incomplete short left to #12 K.Johnson thrown to NCSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NCSU Offside declined NCSU Pass Interference (#2 R.R…Wake Forest Demon Deacons 45% → 54% (+8 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:44 — Wake Forest Demon Deacons ball, 3rd & 6 at NCSU 6No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete short left to #8 C.Hernandez caught at NCSU00, for 6 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:44 #90 C.Calvert kick att…Wake Forest Demon Deacons 56% → 67% (+11 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 8:55 — Wake Forest Demon Deacons ball, 2nd & 9 at WAKE 37No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Lopez pass complete deep middle to #10 J.Foley caught at NCSU29, for 52 yards to the NCSU11 (#14 J.Sensabaugh), 1ST DOWNWake Forest Demon Deacons 71% → 82% (+11 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Wake Forest Demon Deacons won after falling as low as 30% (Q2 5:58).
Game DNA
| Wake Forest | Points added | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| +3.7 | Passingdropbacks | -2.7 |
| -6.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.0 |
| +10.0 | Explosive plays4 plays · 2 plays | +5.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.1 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.9 |
| -1.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.3 |
| +8.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 6 · 1 of 2 | +0.4 |
| +14.9 | All plays | -2.2 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 7.7 points to Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The final margin was 24.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Wake Forest Demon Deacons closed as the market favourite at 61% and won.
The line moved toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wake Forest -3.5 (-105)
Wake Forest -3.5 (-111)
NC State +132 41%
NC State +145 39%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts133
- Completion %66.2%
- Passing yards1,180
- Yards per attempt8.9
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards258127th
- Season line50 carries, 258 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards6035th
- Season line37 catches, 603 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3761st
- Attempts150
- Completion %65.3%80th
- Passing yards1,26658th
- Yards per attempt8.459th
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards35850th
- Season line62 carries, 358 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards33955th
- Season line22 catches, 339 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles4227th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Wake Forest | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateWake Forest offense vs NC State defense | 47.8%25th | 53.2%138th |
| Early-down success rateNC State offense vs Wake Forest defense | 41.2%44th | 41.8%84th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateWake Forest offense vs NC State defense | 45.3%41st | 37.0%45th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNC State offense vs Wake Forest defense | 40.0%70th | 50.8%16th |
| Explosive play rateWake Forest offense vs NC State defense | 7.4%54th | 9.6%128th |
| Explosive play rateNC State offense vs Wake Forest defense | 4.1%8th | 5.9%95th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.4%45th-highest | 49.8%77th-highest |
On 3rd down Wake Forest converts 45.3% (41st) against a NC State defense allowing 37.0% (45th).
On 3rd down NC State converts 50.8% (16th) against a Wake Forest defense allowing 40.0% (70th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Wake Forest | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jake Dickert | Dave Doeren |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 14th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 13–5 | 98–72 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 36–25 | 121–76 |
| Offensive coordinator | Rob Ezell | Kurt Roper |
| Defensive coordinator | Scottie Hazelton | D. J. Eliot / Charlton Warren |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: Wake Forest won 2 and NC State 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2025 | NC State 34, Wake Forest 24 NC State won | ||
| Oct 5, 2024 | Wake Forest 34, NC State 30 Wake Forest won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | NC State 26, Wake Forest 6 NC State won | ||
| Nov 5, 2022 | Wake Forest 21, NC State 30 NC State won | ||
| Nov 13, 2021 | NC State 42, Wake Forest 45 Wake Forest won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons team stats
- Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Oct 31)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 41, California Golden Bears 7 (Oct 17)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 30, Louisville Cardinals 27 (Sep 26)
NC State Wolfpack
- NC State Wolfpack team stats
- California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack (Oct 31)
- NC State Wolfpack 28, Stanford Cardinal 31 (Oct 23)
- Louisville Cardinals 28, NC State Wolfpack 31 (Oct 3)
- NC State Wolfpack 8, Virginia Cavaliers 34 (Aug 29)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results