Oregon State Beavers vs Houston Cougars Final — September 5, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
ORSTRest & travelHOU
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Oregon State visited Houston on Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 PM ET.
Houston closed as a 21-point favorite at home against Oregon State. The spread opened at Houston -20.5. The total closed 50.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Oregon State +912, Houston -1694) prices Oregon State at 9% and Houston at 91%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Oregon State Beavers 20, Houston Cougars 33
Houston Cougars won by 13.
- Against the closing spread (Houston Cougars -21): Oregon State Beavers covered.
- Combined score 53 vs the closing total of 50.5: Over.
- Houston Cougars closed at -1694 on the moneyline (a 91% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Oregon State Beavers 9%, Houston Cougars 91%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Houston Cougars would win 97% of the time (Oregon State Beavers 3%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Houston Cougars. Here is where that came from.
| Oregon State | Points added | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| -13.0 | Passingdropbacks | +0.3 |
| -0.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.2 |
| +19.1 | Explosive plays6 plays · 8 plays | +25.6 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -12.5 |
| +4.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +7.2 |
| -3.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.7 |
| +3.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 5 | +1.1 |
| +10.7 | All plays | +21.3 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.3 points to Houston Cougars. The final margin was 13.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Houston Cougars closed as the market favourite at 91% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Oregon State +20.5 (-110)
Oregon State +21 (-110)
Houston -1700 90%
Houston -1694 91%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Oregon State won 0 and Houston 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2025 | Houston 27, Oregon State 24 Houston won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Oregon State Beavers
- Oregon State Beavers team stats
- Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs (Oct 31)
- Washington State Cougars 30, Oregon State Beavers 48 (Oct 17)
- San Diego State Aztecs 14, Oregon State Beavers 66 (Oct 10)
- Oregon State Beavers 56, Colorado State Rams 26 (Oct 3)
Houston Cougars
- Houston Cougars team stats
- Houston Cougars 13, Utah Utes 21 (Oct 24)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys 32, Houston Cougars 35 (Oct 17)
- Houston Cougars 35, Kansas State Wildcats 16 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 5, 2026
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
- Texas State Bobcats 7, Texas Longhorns 59 (Sep 5)
- Wyoming Cowboys 13, Colorado State Rams 35 (Sep 5)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62 (Sep 5)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 21, Florida Gators 66 (Sep 5)
- UNLV Rebels 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6 (Sep 5)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 7, New Mexico Lobos 38 (Sep 5)
Dig deeper
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