Central Michigan Chippewas vs New Mexico Lobos Final — September 5, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
CMURest & travelUNM
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Central Michigan visited New Mexico on Saturday, September 5 at 10:00 PM ET.
New Mexico closed as a 10.5-point favorite at home against Central Michigan. The spread opened at New Mexico -12.5. The total closed 47.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Central Michigan +335, New Mexico -445) prices Central Michigan at 22% and New Mexico at 78%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Central Michigan Chippewas 7, New Mexico Lobos 38
New Mexico Lobos won by 31.
- Against the closing spread (New Mexico Lobos -10.5): New Mexico Lobos covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 47.5: Under.
- New Mexico Lobos closed at -445 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Central Michigan Chippewas.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Central Michigan Chippewas 22%, New Mexico Lobos 78%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 10:57 — New Mexico Lobos ball, 3rd & 10 at UNM 22Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 16 yards gain to the UNM38 (#1 J.Douglas), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Holding (#26 M.McKenzie) 10 yards from UNM38 to UNM48, 1ST D…New Mexico Lobos 74% → 80% (+5 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, New Mexico Lobos would win >99% of the time (Central Michigan Chippewas <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured New Mexico Lobos. Here is where that came from.
| Central Michigan | Points added | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| -10.8 | Passingdropbacks | -3.4 |
| -4.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | +7.1 |
| +2.1 | Explosive plays1 plays · 2 plays | +1.8 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.9 |
| -0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +3.5 |
| +0.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 0 · 4 of 4 | +5.9 |
| -12.0 | All plays | +15.8 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 11.1 points to New Mexico Lobos. The final margin was 31.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New Mexico Lobos closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
The line moved toward Central Michigan Chippewas before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Central Michigan +12.5 (-110)
Central Michigan +10.5 (-110)
New Mexico -500 80%
New Mexico -445 78%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Teams
Central Michigan Chippewas
- Central Michigan Chippewas team stats
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 21, Central Michigan Chippewas 14 (Oct 17)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 14, Ohio Bobcats 31 (Oct 10)
New Mexico Lobos
- New Mexico Lobos team stats
- New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans (Oct 31)
- North Dakota State Bison 16, New Mexico Lobos 21 (Oct 24)
- New Mexico Lobos 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 10 (Oct 17)
- UTEP Miners 7, New Mexico Lobos 61 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 5, 2026
- Oregon State Beavers 20, Houston Cougars 33 (Sep 5)
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
- Texas State Bobcats 7, Texas Longhorns 59 (Sep 5)
- Wyoming Cowboys 13, Colorado State Rams 35 (Sep 5)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62 (Sep 5)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 21, Florida Gators 66 (Sep 5)
- UNLV Rebels 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6 (Sep 5)
Dig deeper
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