Florida Atlantic Owls vs Florida Gators Final — September 5, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
FAURest & travelFLA
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Florida Atlantic visited Florida on Saturday, September 5 at 7:45 PM ET.
Florida closed as a 25.5-point favorite at home against Florida Atlantic. The spread opened at Florida -26.5. The total closed at 59.5, up from 58.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Florida Atlantic +1468, Florida -4444) prices Florida Atlantic at 6% and Florida at 94%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Florida Atlantic Owls 21, Florida Gators 66
Florida Gators won by 45.
- Against the closing spread (Florida Gators -25.5): Florida Gators covered.
- Combined score 87 vs the closing total of 59.5: Over.
- Florida Gators closed at -4444 on the moneyline (a 94% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida Atlantic Owls 6%, Florida Gators 94%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Florida Gators would win >99% of the time (Florida Atlantic Owls <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Florida Gators. Here is where that came from.
| Florida Atlantic | Points added | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| +1.5 | Passingdropbacks | +6.9 |
| +1.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | +5.2 |
| +3.7 | Explosive plays2 plays · 6 plays | +9.6 |
| -8.4 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -1.7 |
| -3.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.5 |
| -1.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.1 |
| +9.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 8 of 8 | +16.4 |
| +2.2 | All plays | +36.0 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 7.2 points to Florida Gators. The final margin was 45.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Florida Gators closed as the market favourite at 94% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Florida Atlantic +26.5 (-105)
Florida Atlantic +25.5 (-110)
Florida -3938 94%
Florida -4444 94%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Florida Atlantic won 0 and Florida 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2021 | Florida Atlantic 14, Florida 35 Florida won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Florida Atlantic Owls
- Florida Atlantic Owls team stats
- Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green (Oct 29)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Texas Southern Tigers 10, Florida Atlantic Owls 66 (Oct 3)
Florida Gators
- Florida Gators team stats
- Florida Gators at Georgia Bulldogs (Oct 31)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Florida Gators 17, Missouri Tigers 45 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 5, 2026
- Oregon State Beavers 20, Houston Cougars 33 (Sep 5)
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
- Texas State Bobcats 7, Texas Longhorns 59 (Sep 5)
- Wyoming Cowboys 13, Colorado State Rams 35 (Sep 5)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62 (Sep 5)
- UNLV Rebels 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6 (Sep 5)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 7, New Mexico Lobos 38 (Sep 5)
Dig deeper
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