San Diego State Aztecs vs Oregon State Beavers Final — October 10, 2026
SDSUOffense2026 regular season to dateORST
SDSUDefenseORSTSDSURecent formORSTSDSUHome and roadseason to dateORSTSDSULast 10 gamesORSTRest & travelrest and travel
SDSURest & travelORSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
San Diego State (1-3) visited Oregon State (2-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 6:00 PM ET.
San Diego State has the 136th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 60th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Oregon State has the 11th-ranked offense and the 92nd-ranked defense. When San Diego State has the ball, a 136th-ranked offense (−0.277 EPA per play) meets a 92nd-ranked defense (+0.121 allowed); when Oregon State has it, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.286) meets a 60th-ranked defense (+0.038 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the San Diego State offense is at 39.4% (130th) and the Oregon State offense at 55.1% (8th). San Diego State scores 17.5 points per game (113th) and allows 31.0 (98th); Oregon State scores 33.2 (31st) and allows 25.2 (60th).
San Diego State is 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 31-29 win over Texas State. Oregon State is 3-2 and 5-0 against the spread; its last game was a 56-26 win over Colorado State.
Oregon State closed as a 15.5-point favorite at home against San Diego State. The spread opened at Oregon State -14.5. The total closed at 52.5, up from 52 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (San Diego State +525, Oregon State -825) prices San Diego State at 15% and Oregon State at 85%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Diego State Aztecs 14, Oregon State Beavers 66
Oregon State Beavers won by 52.
- Against the closing spread (Oregon State Beavers -15.5): Oregon State Beavers covered.
- Combined score 80 vs the closing total of 52.5: Over.
- Oregon State Beavers closed at -825 on the moneyline (a 85% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Oregon State Beavers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Diego State Aztecs 15%, Oregon State Beavers 85%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| San Diego State | Points added | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 | Passingdropbacks | -0.3 |
| -8.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.3 |
| +2.3 | Explosive plays1 plays · 9 plays | +21.0 |
| -3.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -5.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.0 |
| +1.4 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.2 |
| +2.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 6 of 7 | +2.5 |
| -17.0 | All plays | +18.7 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 18.7 points to Oregon State Beavers. The final margin was 52.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Oregon State Beavers closed as the market favourite at 85% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
San Diego State +14.5 (-110)
San Diego State +15.5 (-112)
Oregon State -705 84%
Oregon State -825 85%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts121
- Completion %57.9%184th
- Passing yards706209th
- Yards per attempt5.8234th
- TD–INT5–5
- Rushing yards31276th
- Season line56 carries, 312 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards177260th
- Season line16 catches, 177 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles487th
- Attempts196
- Completion %69.4%32nd
- Passing yards1,8272nd
- Yards per attempt9.326th
- TD–INT16–2
- Rushing yards271109th
- Season line45 carries, 271 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards7412nd
- Season line28 catches, 741 yds, 9 TD
- Tackles3849th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | San Diego State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSan Diego State offense vs Oregon State defense | 36.7%129th | 40.8%43rd |
| Early-down success rateOregon State offense vs San Diego State defense | 48.2%117th | 54.5%3rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSan Diego State offense vs Oregon State defense | 25.0%130th | 44.4%107th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOregon State offense vs San Diego State defense | 39.3%67th | 38.1%85th |
| Explosive play rateSan Diego State offense vs Oregon State defense | 4.0%129th | 6.4%60th |
| Explosive play rateOregon State offense vs San Diego State defense | 6.9%74th | 8.7%25th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.2%99th-highest | 66.3%2nd-highest |
On 3rd down San Diego State converts 25.0% (130th) against a Oregon State defense allowing 44.4% (107th).
On 3rd down Oregon State converts 38.1% (85th) against a San Diego State defense allowing 39.3% (67th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | San Diego State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean Lewis | JaMarcus Shephard |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 14–16 | 3–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 38–47 | 3–2 |
| Offensive coordinator | Sean Lewis | Mitch Dahlen |
| Defensive coordinator | Demetrius Sumler | Mike MacIntyre |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: San Diego State won 0 and Oregon State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2024 | Oregon State 21, San Diego State 0 Oregon State won | ||
| Sep 16, 2023 | San Diego State 9, Oregon State 26 Oregon State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
San Diego State Aztecs
- San Diego State Aztecs team stats
- Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs (Oct 31)
- San Diego State Aztecs 49, Colorado State Rams 56 (Oct 24)
- Fresno State Bulldogs 23, San Diego State Aztecs 26 (Oct 17)
- Texas State Bobcats 29, San Diego State Aztecs 31 (Oct 3)
Oregon State Beavers
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