UL Monroe Warhawks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Final — September 5, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
ULMRest & travelMSST
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UL Monroe visited Mississippi State on Saturday, September 5 at 7:30 PM ET.
Mississippi State closed as a 28.5-point favorite at home against UL Monroe. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 54.5, down from 55.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UL Monroe +2000, Mississippi State -7000) prices UL Monroe at 5% and Mississippi State at 95%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62
Mississippi State Bulldogs won by 49.
- Against the closing spread (Mississippi State Bulldogs -28.5): Mississippi State Bulldogs covered.
- Combined score 75 vs the closing total of 54.5: Over.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs closed at -7000 on the moneyline (a 95% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UL Monroe Warhawks 5%, Mississippi State Bulldogs 95%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Mississippi State Bulldogs would win 100% of the time (UL Monroe Warhawks 0%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Mississippi State Bulldogs. Here is where that came from.
| UL Monroe | Points added | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| -12.1 | Passingdropbacks | +2.8 |
| +7.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -0.5 |
| +11.4 | Explosive plays1 plays · 9 plays | +26.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +5.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +2.7 |
| +0.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.8 |
| +0.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 0 · 3 of 6 | +8.5 |
| +12.2 | All plays | +41.3 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 15.5 points to Mississippi State Bulldogs. The final margin was 49.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Mississippi State Bulldogs closed as the market favourite at 95% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UL Monroe +28.5 (-112)
UL Monroe +28.5 (-114)
Mississippi State -10000 95%
Mississippi State -7000 95%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Teams
UL Monroe Warhawks
- UL Monroe Warhawks team stats
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks (Oct 31)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 21, Troy Trojans 14 (Oct 24)
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 24, UL Monroe Warhawks 0 (Oct 17)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 35, South Alabama Jaguars 52 (Oct 3)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Mississippi State Bulldogs team stats
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns (Oct 31)
- Oklahoma Sooners 23, Mississippi State Bulldogs 15 (Oct 24)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 5, 2026
- Oregon State Beavers 20, Houston Cougars 33 (Sep 5)
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
- Texas State Bobcats 7, Texas Longhorns 59 (Sep 5)
- Wyoming Cowboys 13, Colorado State Rams 35 (Sep 5)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 21, Florida Gators 66 (Sep 5)
- UNLV Rebels 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6 (Sep 5)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 7, New Mexico Lobos 38 (Sep 5)
Dig deeper
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