Houston Cougars vs Kansas State Wildcats Final — October 10, 2026
HOUOffense2026 regular season to dateKSU
HOUDefenseKSUHOURecent formKSUHOUHome and roadseason to dateKSUHOULast 10 gamesKSURest & travelrest and travel
HOURest & travelKSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Houston (3-1) visited Kansas State (2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Houston has the 29th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 105th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Kansas State has the 43rd-ranked offense and the 54th-ranked defense. When Houston has the ball, a 29th-ranked offense (+0.210 EPA per play) meets a 54th-ranked defense (+0.026 allowed); when Kansas State has it, a 43rd-ranked offense (+0.136) meets a 105th-ranked defense (+0.171 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Houston offense is at 54.3% (9th) and the Kansas State offense at 52.7% (15th). Houston scores 32.0 points per game (40th) and allows 23.2 (51st); Kansas State scores 30.3 (50th) and allows 19.3 (33rd).
Houston is 3-1 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 27-17 win over UCF. Kansas State is 3-1 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 31-26 loss to Cincinnati.
Kansas State closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against Houston. The spread opened at Kansas State -2. The total closed at 55.5, up from 52 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Houston +112, Kansas State -140) prices Houston at 45% and Kansas State at 55%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Houston Cougars 35, Kansas State Wildcats 16
Houston Cougars won by 19.
- Against the closing spread (Kansas State Wildcats -2.5): Houston Cougars covered.
- Combined score 51 vs the closing total of 55.5: Under.
- Houston Cougars closed at +112 on the moneyline (a 45% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Kansas State Wildcats.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Houston Cougars 45%, Kansas State Wildcats 55%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 11:06 — Houston Cougars ball, 3rd & 9 at KSU 37No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep right to #2 K.Young caught at KSTATE01, for 36 yards to the KSTATE01 (#25 Z.Rich), 1ST DOWNHouston Cougars 47% → 58% (+11 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 9:20 — Houston Cougars ball, 4th & 1 at KSU 1Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 1 yard to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:20 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt go…Houston Cougars 52% → 59% (+7 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 3:53 — Houston Cougars ball, 4th & 6 at KSU 16#49 J.Dimas field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards), clock 03:53Kansas State Wildcats 32% → 39% (+8 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:47 — Houston Cougars ball, 4th & 1 at KSU 30No Huddle #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE28 (#88 E.Jackson), 1ST DOWNHouston Cougars 61% → 87% (+25 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:13 — Houston Cougars ball, 1st & 10 at KSU 28No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #9 P.Overmyer thrown to KSTATE23 broken up by #28 R.Van WyheKansas State Wildcats 8% → 42% (+34 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Houston | Points added | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Passingdropbacks | -6.0 |
| +3.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.0 |
| +17.1 | Explosive plays5 plays · 3 plays | +7.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -1.7 |
| -5.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.2 |
| -2.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.9 |
| +7.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 5 of 6 · 2 of 4 | +1.6 |
| +18.0 | All plays | +2.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 9.2 points to Houston Cougars. The final margin was 19.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Kansas State Wildcats closed as the market favourite at 55% and lost.
The line moved toward Kansas State Wildcats before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Houston +2 (-110)
Houston +2.5 (-110)
Kansas State -126 53%
Kansas State -140 55%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts135
- Completion %67.4%52nd
- Passing yards1,18573rd
- Yards per attempt8.849th
- TD–INT11–1
- Rushing yards31475th
- Season line55 carries, 314 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards33061st
- Season line27 catches, 330 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles29192nd
- Attempts133
- Completion %66.2%64th
- Passing yards910131st
- Yards per attempt6.8164th
- TD–INT7–2
- Rushing yards29194th
- Season line30 carries, 291 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards178255th
- Season line11 catches, 178 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles21479th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Houston | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateHouston offense vs Kansas State defense | 47.8%24th | 45.4%95th |
| Early-down success rateKansas State offense vs Houston defense | 44.0%80th | 42.9%72nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateHouston offense vs Kansas State defense | 60.4%3rd | 37.1%48th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKansas State offense vs Houston defense | 42.3%89th | 63.0%1st |
| Explosive play rateHouston offense vs Kansas State defense | 6.4%84th | 7.6%94th |
| Explosive play rateKansas State offense vs Houston defense | 9.0%117th | 8.8%23rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 44.9%105th-highest | 52.9%51st-highest |
On 3rd down Houston converts 60.4% (3rd) against a Kansas State defense allowing 37.1% (48th).
On 3rd down Kansas State converts 63.0% (1st) against a Houston defense allowing 42.3% (89th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Houston | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Willie Fritz | Collin Klein |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 18–12 | 3–1 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 89–66 | 3–1 |
| Offensive coordinator | Slade Nagle | Sean Gleeson |
| Defensive coordinator | Austin Armstrong | Jordan Peterson |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Houston won 1 and Kansas State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | Kansas State 19, Houston 24 Houston won | ||
| Oct 28, 2023 | Houston 0, Kansas State 41 Kansas State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Houston Cougars
- Houston Cougars team stats
- Houston Cougars 13, Utah Utes 21 (Oct 24)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys 32, Houston Cougars 35 (Oct 17)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
Kansas State Wildcats
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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