Home › Game previews › NCAAF › September 2026 › UNLV Rebels at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
NCAAF · September 5, 2026

UNLV Rebels vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Final — September 5, 2026

UNLV Rebels logo
UNLV Rebels
21
FINAL
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors logo
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
6
Saturday, September 5 · 10:00 PM ET
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Rest & travelrest and travel
UNLVRest & travelHAW
7 days
Days of rest
—
2,753 mi4,430 km
Travel to the game
Home
−3 hclock change vs home
Time-zone change
Home
Venue
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
About these numbers

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

UNLV visited Hawai'i on Saturday, September 5 at 10:00 PM ET.

UNLV closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with Hawai'i getting the points at home. The spread opened at UNLV -3. The total closed at 54.5, down from 58.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UNLV -132, Hawai'i +110) prices UNLV at 54% and Hawai'i at 46%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

UNLV Rebels 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6

UNLV Rebels won by 15.

  • Against the closing spread (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +2.5): UNLV Rebels covered.
  • Combined score 27 vs the closing total of 54.5: Under.
  • UNLV Rebels closed at -132 on the moneyline (a 54% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

54%Market at the close46%
UNLV RebelsHawaii Rainbow Warriors
57%Market at the open43%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UNLV Rebels 54%, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 46%) and moving with every snap until the final.

100%75%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Market start1Q1 2:12: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 25% to 32%2Q1 1:12: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 29% to 36%3Q2 1:51: UNLV Rebels 71% to 78%4Q4 11:35: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 23% to 30%5Q4 9:53: UNLV Rebels 74% to 87%■ Hawai'i■ UNLV
 

Biggest swings

  1. Q1 2:12 — UNLV Rebels ball, 4th & 4 at HAW 33Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #17 A.Walker thrown to Hawaii25, TURNOVER ON DOWNSHawaii Rainbow Warriors 25% → 32% (+7 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
  2. Q1 1:12 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 3rd & 9 at HAW 34Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short middle to #6 K.Carvalho caught at Hawaii42, for 26 yards to the UNLV40 (#7 J.Pope; #10 T.Fulton), 1ST DOWNHawaii Rainbow Warriors 29% → 36% (+7 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
  3. Q2 1:51 — UNLV Rebels ball, 1st & 10 at UNLV 48#11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #6 K.McGee caught at Hawaii15, for 44 yards to the Hawaii08 (#2 K.Moore), 1ST DOWNUNLV Rebels 71% → 78% (+7 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
  4. Q4 11:35 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 3rd & 7 at UNLV 31No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short middle to #83 J.Fetui caught at UNLV19, for 12 yards to the UNLV19 (#4 T.Nkuba), 1ST DOWNHawaii Rainbow Warriors 23% → 30% (+7 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
  5. Q4 9:53 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 4th & 1 at UNLV 10Shotgun #26 S.Mikaele rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNLV11 (#94 L.Conti; #8 K.Ka'aihue), TURNOVER ON DOWNSUNLV Rebels 74% → 87% (+12 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

98%UNLV
Chance to win, from chances created
2%HAW
22.2
Expected points
5.0
21
Final score
6

Based on the quality of each team's plays, UNLV Rebels would win 98% of the time (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured UNLV Rebels. Here is where that came from.

UNLVPoints addedHawai'i
-11.7Passingdropbacks
-4.9
-5.3Rushingdesigned runs
+9.5
+14.8Explosive plays5 plays · 1 plays
+3.8
+0.0Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways
-5.6
+4.1Special teamskicks, punts and returns
-0.8
-2.1Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball
-4.1
+3.0Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 0 of 3
-5.0
+2.7All plays
-7.0
Bar left: UNLV gainedBar right: Hawai'i gained

The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 14.8 points to Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. The final margin was 15.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 58.5 -1051.00uWIN +1.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

UNLV Rebels closed as the market favourite at 54% and won.

The line moved toward Hawaii Rainbow Warriors before kickoff, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 0.5
OpenHawai'i +3 (-109)
UNLV -3 (-112)
CloseHawai'i +2.5 (-110)
UNLV -2.5 (-112)
Totaldown 4
Open58.5 (o -109 / u -110)
Close54.5 (o -116 / u -108)
Moneyline
OpenUNLV -146 57%
Hawai'i +119 43%
CloseUNLV -132 54%
Hawai'i +110 46%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %
Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/moSee today’s free game →

Matchup

Success by situation

SituationUNLVHawai'i
Early-down success rateUNLV offense vs Hawai'i defense36.2%55th33.3%12th
Early-down success rateHawai'i offense vs UNLV defense42.6%59th25.9%77th
3rd-down conversion rateUNLV offense vs Hawai'i defense20.0%72nd46.7%54th
3rd-down conversion rateHawai'i offense vs UNLV defense27.3%21st37.5%45th
Explosive play rateUNLV offense vs Hawai'i defense7.7%34th8.5%57th
Explosive play rateHawai'i offense vs UNLV defense6.9%43rd4.2%60th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks56.4%27th-highest73.6%3rd-highest

On 3rd down UNLV converts 20.0% (72nd) against a Hawai'i defense allowing 46.7% (54th).

On 3rd down Hawai'i converts 37.5% (45th) against a UNLV defense allowing 27.3% (21st).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 81 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 5 times since 2021: UNLV won 4 and Hawai'i 1.

DateScoreLineTotal
Nov 21, 2025Hawai'i 10, UNLV 38
UNLV won

Nov 9, 2024UNLV 29, Hawai'i 27
UNLV won

Sep 30, 2023Hawai'i 20, UNLV 44
UNLV won

Nov 19, 2022UNLV 25, Hawai'i 31
Hawai'i won

Nov 13, 2021Hawai'i 13, UNLV 27
UNLV won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Teams

UNLV Rebels

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.

More NCAAF games on September 5, 2026

All NCAAF games in September 2026

Follow the market every day

See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.

Odds boardTracked results