Baylor Bears vs Auburn Tigers Final — September 5, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
BAYRest & travelAUB
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Baylor visited Auburn on Saturday, September 5 at 3:30 PM ET.
Auburn closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against Baylor. The spread opened at Auburn -7. The total closed at 58.5, down from 59.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Baylor +215, Auburn -272) prices Baylor at 30% and Auburn at 70%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17
Auburn Tigers won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Auburn Tigers -6.5): Baylor Bears covered.
- Combined score 33 vs the closing total of 58.5: Under.
- Auburn Tigers closed at -272 on the moneyline (a 70% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Baylor Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Baylor Bears 30%, Auburn Tigers 70%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 11:46 — Auburn Tigers ball, 1st & 10 at AUB 38No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass intercepted by #24 M.Gifford at BAY45 #24 M.Gifford return 6 yards to the AUB49 (#11 W.Myers)Baylor Bears 20% → 37% (+17 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:52 — Baylor Bears ball, 4th & 4 at AUB 43PENALTY AUB Offside (#11 D.Smith) 5 yards from AUB43 to AUB38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYBaylor Bears 28% → 41% (+13 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:36 — Auburn Tigers ball, 3rd & 5 at BAY 44No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass complete short left to #5 C.Nimrod caught at BAY37, for 26 yards to the BAY18 (#7 D.Jordan), 1ST DOWNAuburn Tigers 67% → 83% (+15 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:26 — Baylor Bears ball, 3rd & 5 at AUB 31No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep middle to #3 J.Porter caught at AUB04, for 27 yards to the AUB04 (#1 C.Anthony), 1ST DOWNBaylor Bears 10% → 32% (+22 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:17 — Baylor Bears ball, 2nd & 3 at AUB 3No Huddle-Shotgun #35 D.Pendergrass rush middle for 2 yards loss to the AUB05 (#9 E.Melendez; #35 D.Walker)Auburn Tigers 73% → 88% (+15 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Baylor Bears would win 55% of the time (Auburn Tigers 45%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Baylor | Points added | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6 | Passingdropbacks | -1.3 |
| -12.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -9.6 |
| +8.6 | Explosive plays4 plays · 6 plays | +9.8 |
| -10.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -8.0 |
| +0.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.6 |
| +5.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.7 |
| +0.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 2 of 3 | +4.3 |
| -8.9 | All plays | -2.4 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 3.7 points to Baylor Bears. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Auburn Tigers closed as the market favourite at 70% and won.
The line moved toward Baylor Bears before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Baylor +7 (-110)
Baylor +6.5 (+100)
Auburn -290 71%
Auburn -272 70%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Baylor won 0 and Auburn 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2025 | Auburn 38, Baylor 24 Auburn won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Baylor Bears
- Baylor Bears team stats
- Baylor Bears at UCF Knights (Oct 30)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- TCU Horned Frogs 17, Baylor Bears 6 (Oct 17)
- Baylor Bears 55, Arizona State Sun Devils 19 (Oct 3)
Auburn Tigers
- Auburn Tigers team stats
- Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (Oct 31)
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Auburn Tigers 27, Georgia Bulldogs 24 (Oct 17)
- Auburn Tigers 14, Tennessee Volunteers 24 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 5, 2026
- Oregon State Beavers 20, Houston Cougars 33 (Sep 5)
- Texas State Bobcats 7, Texas Longhorns 59 (Sep 5)
- Wyoming Cowboys 13, Colorado State Rams 35 (Sep 5)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62 (Sep 5)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 21, Florida Gators 66 (Sep 5)
- UNLV Rebels 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6 (Sep 5)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 7, New Mexico Lobos 38 (Sep 5)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results