Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns Final — September 5, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
TXSTRest & travelTEX
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Texas State visited Texas on Saturday, September 5 at 3:30 PM ET.
Texas closed as a 29.5-point favorite at home against Texas State. The spread opened at Texas -30.5. The total closed 60.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Texas State +2500, Texas -9000) prices Texas State at 4% and Texas at 96%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Texas State Bobcats 7, Texas Longhorns 59
Texas Longhorns won by 52.
- Against the closing spread (Texas Longhorns -29.5): Texas Longhorns covered.
- Combined score 66 vs the closing total of 60.5: Over.
- Texas Longhorns closed at -9000 on the moneyline (a 96% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Texas Longhorns.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Texas State Bobcats 4%, Texas Longhorns 96%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Texas Longhorns would win >99% of the time (Texas State Bobcats <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Texas Longhorns. Here is where that came from.
| Texas State | Points added | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 | Passingdropbacks | +1.1 |
| -18.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.7 |
| +18.3 | Explosive plays5 plays · 6 plays | +15.2 |
| -12.0 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -3.5 |
| -5.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +6.8 |
| +2.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.5 |
| -0.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 6 of 7 | +7.8 |
| -14.5 | All plays | +23.2 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 12.7 points to Texas Longhorns. The final margin was 52.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Texas Longhorns closed as the market favourite at 96% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Texas State +30.5 (-113)
Texas State +29.5 (-110)
Texas -10000 96%
Texas -9000 96%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Teams
Texas State Bobcats
- Texas State Bobcats team stats
- Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos (Oct 31)
- Utah State Aggies 17, Texas State Bobcats 20 (Oct 24)
- Colorado State Rams 27, Texas State Bobcats 66 (Oct 15)
- Texas State Bobcats 29, San Diego State Aztecs 31 (Oct 3)
Texas Longhorns
- Texas Longhorns team stats
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns (Oct 31)
- Ole Miss Rebels 27, Texas Longhorns 34 (Oct 24)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Texas Longhorns 24, Oklahoma Sooners 27 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 5, 2026
- Oregon State Beavers 20, Houston Cougars 33 (Sep 5)
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
- Wyoming Cowboys 13, Colorado State Rams 35 (Sep 5)
- UL Monroe Warhawks 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 62 (Sep 5)
- Florida Atlantic Owls 21, Florida Gators 66 (Sep 5)
- UNLV Rebels 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6 (Sep 5)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 7, New Mexico Lobos 38 (Sep 5)
Dig deeper
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