Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Final — September 20, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Cleveland Browns won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8): Cleveland Browns covered.
- Combined score 42 vs the closing total of 41.5: Over.
- Cleveland Browns closed at +325 on the moneyline (a 23% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Browns (0-1) visited the Buccaneers (0-1) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, September 20 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 2.
The Browns have the 24th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 30th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have the 25th-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When the Browns have the ball, a 24th-ranked offense (−0.184 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (−0.002 allowed); when the Buccaneers have it, a 25th-ranked offense (−0.185) meets a 30th-ranked defense (+0.338 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Browns offense is at 44.9% (14th) and the Buccaneers offense at 47.1% (9th). Through the air, the Browns average −0.225 EPA per dropback (26th) against a Buccaneers pass defense ranked 12th; the Buccaneers average −0.292 (27th) against a Browns pass defense ranked 32nd. The Browns score 10.0 points per game (28th) and allow 34.0 (27th); the Buccaneers score 27.0 (13th) and allow 33.0 (26th).
Deshaun Watson has a 51.5% success rate (8th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Baker Mayfield's 50.0% (10th). Per dropback, Watson is at −0.225 EPA to Mayfield's −0.292, with 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception to Mayfield's 0 and 0.
The Browns are 0-1 and 0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 34-10 loss to the Jaguars. The Buccaneers are 0-1 and 0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 33-27 loss to the Bengals.
The Buccaneers closed as 8-point favorites at home against the Browns. The spread opened at Buccaneers -8.5. The total closed at 41.5, up from 40.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Browns +325, Buccaneers -425) prices the Browns at 23% and the Buccaneers at 77%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Browns2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks30
- Success rate51.5%8th
- EPA per dropback−0.22526th
- Completion %72.7%7th
- CPOE+10.36th
- Yards per attempt9.35th
- TD–INT1–1
- Sack rate16.7%32nd
- Dropbacks36
- Success rate50.0%10th
- EPA per dropback−0.29228th
- Completion %82.1%1st
- CPOE+14.03rd
- Yards per attempt7.714th
- TD–INT0–0
- Sack rate11.1%27th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
KC Concepcion leads the Browns wide receivers with 43 receiving yards (41st of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.7%. Quinshon Judkins has 33 rushing yards on 12 carries (40th of 47 qualified running backs). Emeka Egbuka leads the Buccaneers wide receivers with 63 receiving yards (23rd of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.2%. Bucky Irving has 45 rushing yards on 8 carries (27th of 47 qualified running backs).
- Carries12
- Rush yards3340th
- Yards per carry2.846th
- EPA per rush−0.22740th
- Rush success rate25.0%41st
- Targets / catches5 / 4
- Receiving yards4341st
- Target share22.7%25th
- Yards per target8.635th
- EPA per target−0.36167th
- Targets / catches3 / 2
- Receiving yards2126th
- Target share13.6%23rd
- Yards per target7.018th
- EPA per target−0.06125th
- Carries8
- Rush yards4527th
- Yards per carry5.67th
- EPA per rush+0.4442nd
- Rush success rate62.5%1st
- Targets / catches6 / 5
- Receiving yards6323rd
- Target share22.2%27th
- Yards per target10.523rd
- EPA per target+0.79221st
- Targets / catches5 / 3
- Receiving yards2621st
- Target share18.5%12th
- Yards per target5.225th
- EPA per target−0.01824th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Browns | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBrowns offense vs Buccaneers defense | 51.3%6th | 43.8%16th |
| Early-down success rateBuccaneers offense vs Browns defense | 59.1%32nd | 46.3%12th |
| Early-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.04618th | +0.08021st |
| Early-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Browns defense | +0.36032nd | −0.11323rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBrowns offense vs Buccaneers defense | 12.5%32nd | 57.1%27th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuccaneers offense vs Browns defense | 55.6%25th | 50.0%9th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBrowns offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.77028th | −0.28113th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Browns defense | +0.23123rd | −0.48224th |
| Red-zone TD rateBrowns offense vs Buccaneers defense | 0.0%30th | 40.0%6th |
| Red-zone TD rateBuccaneers offense vs Browns defense | 100.0%24th | 50.0%20th |
| Red-zone success rateBrowns offense vs Buccaneers defense | 28.6%27th | 46.7%18th |
| Red-zone success rateBuccaneers offense vs Browns defense | 100.0%31st | 44.4%17th |
On early downs the Browns succeed on 51.3% of plays (6th) against a Buccaneers defense that allows 43.8% (16th); on 3rd down they convert 12.5% (32nd) against a defense allowing 57.1% (27th). On early downs the Buccaneers succeed on 46.3% of plays (12th) against a Browns defense that allows 59.1% (32nd); on 3rd down they convert 50.0% (9th) against a defense allowing 55.6% (25th). The Browns score touchdowns on 0.0% of red-zone trips (30th). The Buccaneers score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (20th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Browns | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Todd Monken | Todd Bowles |
| Offensive coordinator | Travis Switzer | Zac Robinson |
| Defensive coordinator | Mike Rutenberg | — |
| Offense tendencies | Browns | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.6% | −10.2%30th-highest | 2.0%7th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 59.9% | 61.2%15th-highest | 70.6%5th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.6% | 53.8%16th-highest | 65.9%4th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.6% | 67.3%12th-highest | 54.9%20th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.8% | 4.1%19th-highest | 9.8%8th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.7 | 38.83rd-slowest | 33.813th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 14.9% | 16.0%14th | 12.5%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.0% | 12.0%10th | 6.2%19th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 10.6% | 5.3%29th | 6.7%24th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 16.7%32nd | 11.1%28th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 2.20% | 4.08%29th | 7.84%32nd |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.6 | 49.029th-most | 51.024th-most |
| Defense | Browns | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 4.2%23rd | 2.7%24th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 14.9% | 25.0%30th | 19.4%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.0% | 16.7%30th | 8.3%18th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 10.6% | 17.9%29th | 16.0%28th |
| Takeaways per playleague 2.20% | 0.00%25th | 1.61%19th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.5%22nd | 16.2%13th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 30.0%31st | 16.7%21st |
The Browns run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−10.2% pass rate over expected, 30th-highest), while the Buccaneers sit at 2.0% (7th-highest). In neutral situations the Browns take 38.8 seconds between snaps and the Buccaneers 33.8, so the Buccaneers play faster.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Teven Jenkins GOutBack
- Noah Igbinoghene CBQuestionableHand
- Tyson Campbell CBQuestionableAnkle
- Jalen McMillan WRQuestionableKnee
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Browns have 7 days between games and the Buccaneers 7. The Browns travel about 936 miles. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
BrownsBuccaneersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Browns won 1 and the Buccaneers 1. In the most recent meeting (November 27, 2022), the Browns won 23-17; the Browns averaged +0.025 EPA per play; the Buccaneers averaged −0.033 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2022 | Buccaneers 17, Browns 23 Browns won | Buccaneers -3 Browns covered | 42 under | Browns +0.025 · Buccaneers −0.033 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | Browns 23, Buccaneers 26 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -3.5 Browns covered | 52.5 under | Browns −0.131 · Buccaneers −0.110 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Browns +8.5 (-110)
Browns +8 (-109)
Buccaneers -425 78%
Buccaneers -425 77%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Cleveland Browns
- Cleveland Browns team stats
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
- Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 (Sep 13)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers team stats
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Oct 4)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 20, 2026
- Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 (Sep 20)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 (Sep 20)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 (Sep 20)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
- Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 (Sep 20)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
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