Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears Final — November 8, 2026
TBStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCHI
TBOffense2026 regular season to dateCHITBDefenseCHITBRecent formCHITBHome and roadseason to dateCHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
TBRest & travelCHITBKey injuriesCHIAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Buccaneers (3-5) visited the Bears (6-2) at Soldier Field on Sunday, November 8 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 9.
The Buccaneers have the 27th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 2nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bears have the 9th-ranked offense and the 12th-ranked defense. When the Buccaneers have the ball, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.094 EPA per play) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.024 allowed); when the Bears have it, a 9th-ranked offense (+0.063) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.158 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Buccaneers offense is at 40.9% (25th) and the Bears offense at 47.3% (8th). Through the air, the Buccaneers average −0.175 EPA per dropback (30th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 12th; the Bears average +0.134 (10th) against a Buccaneers pass defense ranked 2nd. The Buccaneers score 22.2 points per game (20th) and allow 18.9 (5th); the Bears score 26.8 (8th) and allow 20.0 (8th).
Over the last five games, the Buccaneers rank 20th on offense and 1st on defense by EPA per play; the Bears rank 15th and 14th.
Caleb Williams has a 50.5% success rate (6th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Baker Mayfield's 37.7% (32nd). Per dropback, Williams is at +0.283 EPA to Mayfield's −0.234, with 6 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Mayfield's 3 and 2.
The Buccaneers are 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; their last game was a 16-0 win over the Falcons. The Bears are 6-2 and 6-2 against the spread; their last game was a 34-17 win over the Seahawks.
The Bears closed as 6.5-point favorites at home against the Buccaneers. The spread opened at Bears -6. The total closed at 47.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Buccaneers +233, Bears -282) prices the Buccaneers at 29% and the Bears at 71%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27
Chicago Bears won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Chicago Bears -6.5): Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered.
- Combined score 51 vs the closing total of 47.5: Over.
- Chicago Bears closed at -282 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Chicago Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29%, Chicago Bears 71%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 4:38 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 3 at CHI 36(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone (25-J.Parrish) at CHI 43. 34-A.Anzalone pushed ob at CHI 37 for 6 yards (10-L.Burden).Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18% → 30% (+13 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 3:50 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers ball, 2nd & 9 at CHI 36(Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson at CHI 33. 1-J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Chicago Bears 72% → 92% (+21 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:48 — Chicago Bears ball, 3rd & 7 at CHI 15(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden to CHI 19 for 4 yards (3-R.Bain; 22-K.Scott). FUMBLES (3-R.Bain), RECOVERED by TB-5-I.Melifonwu at CHI 21. 5-I.Melifonwu to CHI 17 for 4 yards (62-J.Thuney).Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5% → 17% (+12 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:47 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 9 at CHI 46(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 84-C.Loveland pushed ob at TB 16 for 38 yards (5-I.Melifonwu).Chicago Bears 73% → 93% (+19 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:03 — Chicago Bears ball, 3rd & 14 at TB 208-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. Penalty on TB-91-A.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.Chicago Bears 84% → 100% (+16 pts) · Drive 27 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Buccaneers | Points added | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| -9.2 | Passingdropbacks | -4.2 |
| -5.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.2 |
| +13.8 | Explosive plays7 plays · 6 plays | +15.5 |
| -13.3 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 5 giveaways | -20.7 |
| +0.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.1 |
| -1.9 | Penalties8 for 45 yds · 9 for 74 yds | -2.4 |
| +0.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 5 · 1 of 4 | -1.0 |
| -14.5 | All plays | -11.9 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 7.3 points to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Chicago Bears closed as the market favourite at 71% and won.
The line moved toward Chicago Bears before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Buccaneers +6 (-110)
Buccaneers +6.5 (-111)
Bears -260 69%
Bears -282 71%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Emeka Egbuka has 240 receiving yards for the Buccaneers (62nd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.2%. Bucky Irving has 728 rushing yards on 147 carries (4th of 42 qualified running backs). Luther Burden III has 547 receiving yards for the Bears (13th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.7%. D'Andre Swift has 545 rushing yards on 143 carries (12th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries147
- Rush yards7284th
- Yards per carry5.09th
- EPA per rush−0.00114th
- Rush success rate42.2%14th
- Targets / catches49 / 28
- Receiving yards24062nd
- Target share26.2%14th
- Yards per target4.975th
- EPA per target−0.25974th
- Targets / catches30 / 19
- Receiving yards18628th
- Target share15.2%21st
- Yards per target6.227th
- EPA per target+0.16026th
- Carries143
- Rush yards54512th
- Yards per carry3.829th
- EPA per rush−0.03619th
- Rush success rate44.8%10th
- Targets / catches56 / 42
- Receiving yards54713th
- Target share21.7%30th
- Yards per target9.818th
- EPA per target+0.30735th
- Targets / catches51 / 33
- Receiving yards30914th
- Target share19.8%8th
- Yards per target6.130th
- EPA per target−0.05730th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Buccaneers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBuccaneers offense vs Bears defense | 40.9%23rd | 42.8%14th |
| Early-down success rateBears offense vs Buccaneers defense | 40.5%6th | 46.7%7th |
| Early-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Bears defense | −0.04623rd | +0.11732nd |
| Early-down EPA per playBears offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.0626th | +0.03017th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuccaneers offense vs Bears defense | 38.4%20th | 23.8%1st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBears offense vs Buccaneers defense | 32.0%5th | 44.3%6th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Bears defense | −0.19827th | −0.4252nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBears offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.4661st | +0.1527th |
| Red-zone TD rateBuccaneers offense vs Bears defense | 52.0%26th | 60.0%14th |
| Red-zone TD rateBears offense vs Buccaneers defense | 50.0%9th | 58.8%16th |
| Red-zone success rateBuccaneers offense vs Bears defense | 47.4%9th | 44.6%19th |
| Red-zone success rateBears offense vs Buccaneers defense | 42.6%14th | 49.2%7th |
On early downs the Buccaneers succeed on 40.9% of plays (23rd) against a Bears defense that allows 42.8% (14th); on 3rd down they convert 38.4% (20th) against a defense allowing 23.8% (1st). On early downs the Bears succeed on 46.7% of plays (7th) against a Buccaneers defense that allows 40.5% (6th); on 3rd down they convert 44.3% (6th) against a defense allowing 32.0% (5th). The Buccaneers score touchdowns on 52.0% of red-zone trips (26th). The Bears score touchdowns on 58.8% of red-zone trips (16th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Buccaneers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Todd Bowles | Ben Johnson |
| Offensive coordinator | Zac Robinson | Press Taylor |
| Defensive coordinator | — | Dennis Allen |
| Offense tendencies | Buccaneers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −10.1%31st-highest | −0.4%10th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 52.3%32nd-highest | 55.3%29th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 44.7%32nd-highest | 51.0%25th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 63.7%15th-highest | 53.5%26th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 7.1%11th-highest | 5.1%18th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 34.53rd-slowest | 32.920th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 9.4%32nd | 15.3%17th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 6.0%30th | 10.9%4th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 12.9%5th | 8.8%16th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 8.9%28th | 6.1%18th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.44%25th | 2.12%20th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 61.414th-most | 70.81st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 5 of 9 | 11 of 14 |
| Defense | Buccaneers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 5.4%24th | 8.2%2nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 14.1%12th | 19.5%30th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 6.1%5th | 10.4%27th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 8.6%12th | 10.0%20th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 3.06%1st | 1.96%14th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 12.3%28th | 16.7%11th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 15.6%15th | 13.7%8th |
The Buccaneers run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−10.1% pass rate over expected, 31st-highest), while the Bears sit at −0.4% (10th-highest). In neutral situations the Buccaneers take 34.5 seconds between snaps and the Bears 32.9, so the Bears play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Buccaneers have gone for it 5 of 9 times and the Bears 11 of 14.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 7 times since 2015: the Buccaneers won 4 and the Bears 3. In the most recent meeting (September 17, 2023), the Buccaneers won 27-17; the Bears averaged −0.165 EPA per play; the Buccaneers averaged +0.233 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2023 | Bears 17, Buccaneers 27 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -2.5 Buccaneers covered | 41 over | Bears −0.165 · Buccaneers +0.233 |
| Oct 24, 2021 | Bears 3, Buccaneers 38 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -12.5 Buccaneers covered | 47 under | Bears −0.436 · Buccaneers +0.140 |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Buccaneers 19, Bears 20 Bears won | Buccaneers -3.5 Bears covered | 44 under | Bears −0.122 · Buccaneers −0.013 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | Buccaneers 10, Bears 48 Bears won | Bears -3 Bears covered | 46 over | Bears +0.461 · Buccaneers −0.123 |
| Sep 17, 2017 | Bears 7, Buccaneers 29 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -7 Buccaneers covered | 44 under | Bears −0.245 · Buccaneers −0.009 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers team stats
- Atlanta Falcons 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Nov 1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
Chicago Bears
- Chicago Bears team stats
- Chicago Bears 34, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 2)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
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