Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos Final — September 20, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20
Denver Broncos won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Denver Broncos -2.5): Denver Broncos covered.
- Combined score 33 vs the closing total of 45.5: Under.
- Denver Broncos closed at -145 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Jaguars (1-0) visited the Broncos (0-1) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, September 20 at 4:05 PM ET in Week 2.
The Jaguars have the 3rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 9th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the 32nd-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When the Jaguars have the ball, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.338 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.164 allowed); when the Broncos have it, a 32nd-ranked offense (−0.344) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.184 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Jaguars offense is at 60.4% (1st) and the Broncos offense at 37.0% (28th). Through the air, the Jaguars average +0.793 EPA per dropback (1st) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 16th; the Broncos average −0.443 (31st) against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 7th. The Jaguars score 34.0 points per game (6th) and allow 10.0 (2nd); the Broncos score 10.0 (28th) and allow 31.0 (23rd).
Trevor Lawrence has a 72.0% success rate (2nd of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bo Nix's 38.2% (26th). Per dropback, Lawrence is at +0.793 EPA to Nix's −0.443, with 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Nix's 1 and 1.
The Jaguars are 1-0 and 1-0 against the spread; their last game was a 34-10 win over the Browns. The Broncos are 0-1 and 0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-10 loss to the Chiefs.
The Broncos closed as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Jaguars. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 45.5, up from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jaguars +124, Broncos -145) prices the Jaguars at 43% and the Broncos at 57%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Jaguars2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks24
- Success rate72.0%2nd
- EPA per dropback+0.7931st
- Completion %78.3%4th
- CPOE+22.31st
- Yards per attempt10.73rd
- TD–INT4–0
- Sack rate4.2%10th
- Dropbacks33
- Success rate38.2%26th
- EPA per dropback−0.44330th
- Completion %60.7%23rd
- CPOE−7.828th
- Yards per attempt4.731st
- TD–INT1–1
- Sack rate12.1%28th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Parker Washington leads the Jaguars wide receivers with 83 receiving yards (11th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.6%. Bhayshul Tuten has 66 rushing yards on 15 carries (13th of 47 qualified running backs). Pat Bryant leads the Broncos wide receivers with 42 receiving yards (42nd of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.2%. J.K. Dobbins has 36 rushing yards on 8 carries (37th of 47 qualified running backs).
- Carries15
- Rush yards6613th
- Yards per carry4.423rd
- EPA per rush−0.07329th
- Rush success rate46.7%16th
- Targets / catches6 / 5
- Receiving yards8311th
- Target share28.6%11th
- Yards per target13.812th
- EPA per target+1.4603rd
- Targets / catches3 / 2
- Receiving yards2324th
- Target share14.3%22nd
- Yards per target7.715th
- EPA per target+0.7949th
- Carries8
- Rush yards3637th
- Yards per carry4.520th
- EPA per rush−0.14136th
- Rush success rate12.5%45th
- Targets / catches6 / 4
- Receiving yards4242nd
- Target share22.2%27th
- Yards per target7.043rd
- EPA per target+0.33641st
- Targets / catches5 / 4
- Receiving yards4314th
- Target share18.5%12th
- Yards per target8.612th
- EPA per target+0.8118th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Jaguars | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJaguars offense vs Broncos defense | 59.1%1st | 34.8%3rd |
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs Jaguars defense | 51.3%27th | 39.4%25th |
| Early-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Broncos defense | +0.3601st | −0.07812th |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.04615th | −0.07820th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJaguars offense vs Broncos defense | 55.6%8th | 56.2%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs Jaguars defense | 12.5%1st | 16.7%30th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJaguars offense vs Broncos defense | +0.23110th | +0.29624th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Jaguars defense | −0.7705th | −0.87531st |
| Red-zone TD rateJaguars offense vs Broncos defense | 100.0%1st | 60.0%13th |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs Jaguars defense | 0.0%1st | 50.0%20th |
| Red-zone success rateJaguars offense vs Broncos defense | 100.0%1st | 40.0%11th |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs Jaguars defense | 28.6%5th | 50.0%11th |
On early downs the Jaguars succeed on 59.1% of plays (1st) against a Broncos defense that allows 34.8% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 55.6% (8th) against a defense allowing 56.2% (26th). On early downs the Broncos succeed on 39.4% of plays (25th) against a Jaguars defense that allows 51.3% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 16.7% (30th) against a defense allowing 12.5% (1st). The Jaguars score touchdowns on 100.0% of red-zone trips (1st). The Broncos score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (20th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Jaguars | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Liam Coen | Sean Payton |
| Offensive coordinator | Grant Udinski | Davis Webb |
| Defensive coordinator | Anthony Campanile | Vance Joseph |
| Offense tendencies | Jaguars | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.6% | −2.8%19th-highest | 1.9%8th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 59.9% | 45.3%31st-highest | 71.7%4th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.6% | 47.7%25th-highest | 63.6%7th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.6% | 39.6%30th-highest | 80.4%2nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.8% | 7.5%12th-highest | 6.5%15th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.7 | 33.714th-slowest | 37.85th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 14.9% | 25.0%3rd | 3.4%31st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.0% | 16.7%2nd | 0.0%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 10.6% | 17.9%4th | 8.3%20th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 4.2%10th | 12.1%29th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 2.20% | 0.00%1st | 4.35%30th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.6 | 53.021st-most | 46.032nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 45.7% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Defense | Jaguars | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 16.7%1st | 6.1%16th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 14.9% | 16.0%19th | 12.9%14th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.0% | 12.0%22nd | 6.5%15th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 10.6% | 5.3%4th | 12.9%25th |
| Takeaways per playleague 2.20% | 4.08%4th | 1.56%20th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 30.0%2nd | 15.2%15th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 12.5%11th | 21.2%25th |
The Jaguars run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.8% pass rate over expected, 19th-highest), while the Broncos sit at 1.9% (8th-highest). In neutral situations the Jaguars take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the Broncos 37.8, so the Jaguars play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Jaguars have gone for it 0 of 1 times and the Broncos 0 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
- RJ Harvey RBQuestionableHamstring
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Jaguars have 7 days between games and the Broncos 6. The Jaguars travel about 1,468 miles, moving their body clock 2 hours back. The stadium sits about 5,280 feet above sea level.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
JaguarsBroncosLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Jaguars won 2 and the Broncos 3. In the most recent meeting (December 21, 2025), the Jaguars won 34-20; the Broncos averaged −0.033 EPA per play; the Jaguars averaged +0.088 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Jaguars 34, Broncos 20 Jaguars won | Broncos -3.5 Jaguars covered | 46.5 over | Broncos −0.033 · Jaguars +0.088 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Broncos 21, Jaguars 17 Broncos won | Jaguars -1 Broncos covered | 41 under | Broncos +0.020 · Jaguars −0.098 |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Broncos 23, Jaguars 13 Broncos won | Broncos -6 Broncos covered | 45 under | Broncos +0.143 · Jaguars −0.252 |
| Sep 29, 2019 | Jaguars 26, Broncos 24 Jaguars won | Broncos -2.5 Jaguars covered | 37 over | Broncos +0.043 · Jaguars +0.166 |
| Dec 4, 2016 | Broncos 20, Jaguars 10 Broncos won | Broncos -3.5 Broncos covered | 39 under | Broncos −0.284 · Jaguars −0.359 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Jaguars +2.5 (-110)
Jaguars +2.5 (-103)
Broncos -136 55%
Broncos -145 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jacksonville Jaguars team stats
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (Oct 4)
- Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 (Sep 13)
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
- Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 (Sep 14)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 20, 2026
- Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 (Sep 20)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 (Sep 20)
- Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Sep 20)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 (Sep 20)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
- Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 (Sep 20)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
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