Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers Final — September 20, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35
San Francisco 49ers won by 22.
- Against the closing spread (San Francisco 49ers -13): San Francisco 49ers covered.
- Combined score 48 vs the closing total of 45: Over.
- San Francisco 49ers closed at -1000 on the moneyline (a 87% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Dolphins (0-1) visited the 49ers (1-0) at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, September 20 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 2.
The Dolphins have the 26th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers have the 8th-ranked offense and the 4th-ranked defense. When the Dolphins have the ball, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.236 EPA per play) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.265 allowed); when the 49ers have it, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.179) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.039 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Dolphins offense is at 34.0% (31st) and the 49ers offense at 56.2% (3rd). Through the air, the Dolphins average −0.206 EPA per dropback (25th) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 4th; the 49ers average +0.208 (11th) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 14th. The Dolphins score 13.0 points per game (25th) and allow 27.0 (18th); the 49ers score 27.0 (13th) and allow 7.0 (1st).
Brock Purdy has a 59.0% success rate (4th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Malik Willis' 36.8% (29th). Per dropback, Purdy is at +0.208 EPA to Willis' −0.206, with 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Willis' 0 and 1.
The Dolphins are 0-1 and 0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 27-13 loss to the Raiders. The 49ers are 1-0 and 1-0 against the spread; their last game was a 27-7 win over the Rams.
The 49ers closed as 13-point favorites at home against the Dolphins. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 45, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Dolphins +612, 49ers -1000) prices the Dolphins at 13% and the 49ers at 87%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Dolphins2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks37
- Success rate36.8%29th
- EPA per dropback−0.20625th
- Completion %55.6%28th
- CPOE−8.929th
- Yards per attempt8.110th
- TD–INT0–1
- Sack rate13.5%30th
- Dropbacks36
- Success rate59.0%4th
- EPA per dropback+0.20811th
- Completion %73.5%5th
- CPOE+0.818th
- Yards per attempt6.023rd
- TD–INT3–1
- Sack rate0.0%1st
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Malik Washington leads the Dolphins wide receivers with 53 receiving yards (32nd of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.6%. De'Von Achane has 36 rushing yards on 11 carries (37th of 47 qualified running backs). Mike Evans leads the 49ers wide receivers with 49 receiving yards (37th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.6%. Kaelon Black has 65 rushing yards on 14 carries (14th of 47 qualified running backs).
- Carries11
- Rush yards3637th
- Yards per carry3.340th
- EPA per rush−0.24641st
- Rush success rate27.3%39th
- Targets / catches8 / 3
- Receiving yards5332nd
- Target share29.6%10th
- Yards per target6.648th
- EPA per target−0.40468th
- Targets / catches2 / 2
- Receiving yards18
- Target share7.4%
- Yards per target9.0
- EPA per target+0.820
- Carries14
- Rush yards6514th
- Yards per carry4.617th
- EPA per rush+0.01919th
- Rush success rate42.9%21st
- Targets / catches7 / 6
- Receiving yards4937th
- Target share20.6%39th
- Yards per target7.043rd
- EPA per target+1.1698th
- Targets / catches5 / 2
- Receiving yards1232nd
- Target share14.7%20th
- Yards per target2.433rd
- EPA per target−1.11634th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Dolphins | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateDolphins offense vs 49ers defense | 35.9%29th | 47.7%23rd |
| Early-down success rate49ers offense vs Dolphins defense | 39.2%6th | 55.8%2nd |
| Early-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs 49ers defense | −0.00816th | −0.07911th |
| Early-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Dolphins defense | −0.2262nd | +0.1918th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDolphins offense vs 49ers defense | 20.0%27th | 22.2%7th |
| 3rd-down conversion rate49ers offense vs Dolphins defense | 41.7%18th | 58.3%4th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playDolphins offense vs 49ers defense | −0.89832nd | −0.7934th |
| 3rd-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Dolphins defense | +0.60025th | +0.12513th |
| Red-zone TD rateDolphins offense vs 49ers defense | 50.0%20th | 33.3%4th |
| Red-zone TD rate49ers offense vs Dolphins defense | 75.0%18th | 66.7%15th |
| Red-zone success rateDolphins offense vs 49ers defense | 40.0%20th | 33.3%7th |
| Red-zone success rate49ers offense vs Dolphins defense | 41.7%13th | 50.0%11th |
On early downs the Dolphins succeed on 35.9% of plays (29th) against a 49ers defense that allows 47.7% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 20.0% (27th) against a defense allowing 22.2% (7th). On early downs the 49ers succeed on 55.8% of plays (2nd) against a Dolphins defense that allows 39.2% (6th); on 3rd down they convert 58.3% (4th) against a defense allowing 41.7% (18th). The Dolphins score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (20th). The 49ers score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (15th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Dolphins | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jeff Hafley | Kyle Shanahan |
| Offensive coordinator | Bobby Slowik | Klay Kubiak |
| Defensive coordinator | Sean Duggan | Raheem Morris |
| Offense tendencies | Dolphins | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.6% | −0.9%13th-highest | 5.0%3rd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 59.9% | 74.0%2nd-highest | 56.2%21st-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.6% | 69.2%3rd-highest | 50.0%21st-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.6% | 76.0%5th-highest | 42.2%29th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.8% | 2.0%22nd-highest | 0.0%30th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.7 | 36.07th-slowest | 33.911th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 14.9% | 15.6%15th | 8.3%25th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.0% | 15.6%4th | 2.8%25th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 10.6% | 7.7%21st | 14.3%6th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 13.5%30th | 0.0%1st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 2.20% | 4.00%28th | 1.56%12th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.6 | 50.028th-most | 64.010th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 45.7% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Defense | Dolphins | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 0.0%28th | 0.0%28th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 14.9% | 6.5%4th | 10.3%9th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.0% | 3.2%9th | 6.9%16th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 10.6% | 12.1%22nd | 7.4%11th |
| Takeaways per playleague 2.20% | 3.12%12th | 3.57%8th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 6.5%29th | 27.6%3rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 24.3%28th | 5.6%3rd |
The Dolphins run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−0.9% pass rate over expected, 13th-highest), while the 49ers sit at 5.0% (3rd-highest). In neutral situations the Dolphins take 36.0 seconds between snaps and the 49ers 33.9, so the 49ers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Dolphins have gone for it 0 of 1 times and the 49ers 0 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Chop Robinson LBOutConcussion
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Dolphins have 7 days between games and the 49ers 10. The Dolphins travel about 2,555 miles, moving their body clock 3 hours back. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
Dolphins49ersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Dolphins won 3 and the 49ers 1. In the most recent meeting (December 22, 2024), the Dolphins won 29-17; the Dolphins averaged +0.165 EPA per play; the 49ers averaged +0.060 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 49ers 17, Dolphins 29 Dolphins won | 49ers -2 Dolphins covered | 44 over | Dolphins +0.165 · 49ers +0.060 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Dolphins 17, 49ers 33 49ers won | 49ers -4.5 49ers covered | 46 over | Dolphins −0.328 · 49ers −0.002 |
| Oct 11, 2020 | Dolphins 43, 49ers 17 Dolphins won | 49ers -8.5 Dolphins covered | 50.5 over | Dolphins +0.336 · 49ers −0.304 |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 49ers 24, Dolphins 31 Dolphins won | Dolphins -7 push | 44.5 over | Dolphins +0.226 · 49ers +0.131 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Dolphins +13 (-109)
Dolphins +13 (-110)
49ers -950 87%
49ers -1000 87%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Miami Dolphins
- Miami Dolphins team stats
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Sep 13)
San Francisco 49ers
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 20, 2026
- Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 (Sep 20)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 (Sep 20)
- Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Sep 20)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 (Sep 20)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
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