Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Final — September 20, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33
Kansas City Chiefs won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Kansas City Chiefs -6): Indianapolis Colts covered.
- Combined score 63 vs the closing total of 45.5: Over.
- Kansas City Chiefs closed at -280 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Colts (0-1) visited the Chiefs (1-0) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, September 20 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 2.
The Colts have the 27th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 29th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have the 10th-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When the Colts have the ball, a 27th-ranked offense (−0.241 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.344 allowed); when the Chiefs have it, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.164) meets a 29th-ranked defense (+0.321 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Colts offense is at 41.5% (22nd) and the Chiefs offense at 42.2% (18th). Through the air, the Colts average −0.441 EPA per dropback (30th) against a Chiefs pass defense ranked 2nd; the Chiefs average +0.026 (17th) against a Colts pass defense ranked 28th. The Colts score 23.0 points per game (18th) and allow 41.0 (31st); the Chiefs score 31.0 (8th) and allow 10.0 (2nd).
Patrick Mahomes has a 42.4% success rate (19th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Daniel Jones' 38.2% (26th). Per dropback, Mahomes is at +0.026 EPA to Jones' −0.441, with 2 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Jones' 1 and 1.
The Colts are 0-1 and 0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 41-23 loss to the Ravens. The Chiefs are 1-0 and 1-0 against the spread; their last game was a 31-10 win over the Broncos.
The Chiefs closed as 6-point favorites at home against the Colts. The spread opened at Chiefs -6.5. The total closed at 45.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Colts +228, Chiefs -280) prices the Colts at 29% and the Chiefs at 71%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Colts2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks34
- Success rate38.2%26th
- EPA per dropback−0.44129th
- Completion %61.3%22nd
- CPOE−5.125th
- Yards per attempt5.426th
- TD–INT1–1
- Sack rate5.9%15th
- Dropbacks33
- Success rate42.4%19th
- EPA per dropback+0.02617th
- Completion %55.6%28th
- CPOE−11.932nd
- Yards per attempt6.820th
- TD–INT2–1
- Sack rate6.1%16th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Keenan Allen leads the Colts wide receivers with 32 receiving yards (54th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 20.7%. Jonathan Taylor has 98 rushing yards on 19 carries (8th of 47 qualified running backs). Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs wide receivers with 18 receiving yards (71st of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.0%. Kenneth Walker III has 173 rushing yards on 23 carries (1st of 47 qualified running backs).
- Carries19
- Rush yards988th
- Yards per carry5.212th
- EPA per rush+0.11610th
- Rush success rate47.4%15th
- Targets / catches6 / 6
- Receiving yards3254th
- Target share20.7%37th
- Yards per target5.360th
- EPA per target−0.00159th
- Targets / catches5 / 3
- Receiving yards1330th
- Target share17.2%17th
- Yards per target2.632nd
- EPA per target−0.11127th
- Carries23
- Rush yards1731st
- Yards per carry7.52nd
- EPA per rush+0.4393rd
- Rush success rate47.8%13th
- Targets / catches6 / 3
- Receiving yards1871st
- Target share24.0%22nd
- Yards per target3.073rd
- EPA per target−1.40877th
- Targets / catches5 / 3
- Receiving yards716th
- Target share20.0%11th
- Yards per target14.24th
- EPA per target+0.9946th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Colts | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Chiefs defense | 45.2%15th | 39.4%7th |
| Early-down success rateChiefs offense vs Colts defense | 52.9%28th | 34.8%30th |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.20729th | −0.07813th |
| Early-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Colts defense | +0.30630th | −0.07821st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Chiefs defense | 30.0%22nd | 16.7%2nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChiefs offense vs Colts defense | 37.5%16th | 56.2%7th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.07316th | −0.8752nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Colts defense | +0.84430th | +0.2969th |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Chiefs defense | 100.0%1st | 50.0%8th |
| Red-zone TD rateChiefs offense vs Colts defense | 75.0%18th | 60.0%19th |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Chiefs defense | 75.0%3rd | 50.0%19th |
| Red-zone success rateChiefs offense vs Colts defense | 54.5%24th | 40.0%20th |
On early downs the Colts succeed on 45.2% of plays (15th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 39.4% (7th); on 3rd down they convert 30.0% (22nd) against a defense allowing 16.7% (2nd). On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 34.8% of plays (30th) against a Colts defense that allows 52.9% (28th); on 3rd down they convert 56.2% (7th) against a defense allowing 37.5% (16th). The Colts score touchdowns on 100.0% of red-zone trips (1st). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 60.0% of red-zone trips (19th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Colts | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Shane Steichen | Andy Reid |
| Offensive coordinator | Jim Bob Cooter | Eric Bieniemy |
| Defensive coordinator | Lou Anarumo | Steve Spagnuolo |
| Offense tendencies | Colts | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.6% | −4.5%21st-highest | 0.1%11th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 59.9% | 64.2%12th-highest | 51.6%26th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.6% | 61.9%10th-highest | 47.8%24th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.6% | 64.2%13th-highest | 59.4%16th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.8% | 13.2%5th-highest | 0.0%30th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.7 | 33.416th-slowest | 29.726th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 14.9% | 6.2%30th | 12.9%19th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.0% | 6.2%19th | 6.5%18th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 10.6% | 26.3%1st | 12.9%7th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 5.9%14th | 6.1%15th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 2.20% | 3.77%26th | 1.56%12th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.6 | 53.021st-most | 64.010th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 45.7% | — | 2 of 2 |
| Defense | Colts | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 6.9%15th | 12.1%4th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 14.9% | 33.3%31st | 3.4%2nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.0% | 11.1%21st | 0.0%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 10.6% | 12.9%25th | 8.3%13th |
| Takeaways per playleague 2.20% | 1.67%17th | 4.35%3rd |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 10.3%25th | 21.2%8th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 26.5%29th | 15.2%16th |
The Colts run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−4.5% pass rate over expected, 21st-highest), while the Chiefs sit at 0.1% (11th-highest). In neutral situations the Colts take 33.4 seconds between snaps and the Chiefs 29.7, so the Chiefs play faster.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
- Chamarri Conner SOutKnee
- Josh Simmons TOutBack
- Chris Jones DTQuestionableCalf
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Colts have 7 days between games and the Chiefs 6. The Colts travel about 447 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour back.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
ColtsChiefsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Colts won 2 and the Chiefs 3. In the most recent meeting (November 23, 2025), the Chiefs won 23-20; the Colts averaged −0.004 EPA per play; the Chiefs averaged +0.014 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | Colts 20, Chiefs 23 Chiefs won | Chiefs -3.5 Colts covered | 50.5 under | Colts −0.004 · Chiefs +0.014 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Chiefs 17, Colts 20 Colts won | Chiefs -4.5 Colts covered | 51 under | Colts −0.161 · Chiefs +0.035 |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Colts 19, Chiefs 13 Colts won | Chiefs -10.5 Colts covered | 55.5 under | Colts +0.010 · Chiefs −0.086 |
| Jan 12, 2019 playoffs | Colts 13, Chiefs 31 Chiefs won | Chiefs -4 Chiefs covered | 54.5 under | Colts −0.238 · Chiefs +0.072 |
| Oct 30, 2016 | Chiefs 30, Colts 14 Chiefs won | Chiefs -3 Chiefs covered | 50.5 under | Colts −0.193 · Chiefs +0.133 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Colts +6.5 (-105)
Colts +6 (-112)
Chiefs -337 74%
Chiefs -280 71%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Indianapolis Colts
- Indianapolis Colts team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (Oct 4)
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Sep 13)
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Oct 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 (Sep 14)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 20, 2026
- Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 (Sep 20)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 (Sep 20)
- Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Sep 20)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 (Sep 20)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
- Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 (Sep 20)
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