Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Final — October 25, 2026
TBStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCAR
TBOffense2026 regular season to dateCARTBDefenseCARTBRecent formCARTBHome and roadseason to dateCARInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
TBRest & travelCARTBKey injuriesCARAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Buccaneers (1-5) visited the Panthers (3-2) at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 7.
The Buccaneers have the 29th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 4th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers have the 6th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense. When the Buccaneers have the ball, a 29th-ranked offense (−0.130 EPA per play) meets a 19th-ranked defense (−0.009 allowed); when the Panthers have it, a 6th-ranked offense (+0.116) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.087 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Buccaneers offense is at 38.8% (27th) and the Panthers offense at 44.1% (14th). Through the air, the Buccaneers average −0.181 EPA per dropback (31st) against a Panthers pass defense ranked 15th; the Panthers average +0.204 (6th) against a Buccaneers pass defense ranked 6th. The Buccaneers score 19.8 points per game (25th) and allow 23.0 (17th); the Panthers score 29.2 (4th) and allow 24.6 (21st).
Over the last five games, the Buccaneers rank 29th on offense and 3rd on defense by EPA per play; the Panthers rank 6th and 19th.
Bryce Young has a 45.2% success rate (17th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Baker Mayfield's 38.7% (30th). Per dropback, Young is at +0.205 EPA to Mayfield's −0.256, with 11 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Mayfield's 2 and 2. Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable on the injury report.
The Buccaneers are 1-5 and 1-5 against the spread; their last game was a 26-19 loss to the Steelers. The Panthers are 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 25-14 win over the Eagles.
The Panthers closed as 3-point favorites at home against the Buccaneers. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 44.5, up from 44 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Buccaneers +134, Panthers -159) prices the Buccaneers at 41% and the Panthers at 59%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won by 30.
- Against the closing spread (Carolina Panthers -3): Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered.
- Combined score 56 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers closed at +134 on the moneyline (a 41% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41%, Carolina Panthers 59%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:00 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers ball, 3rd & 10 at CAR 45(Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (29-A.Evans).Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42% → 48% (+6 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 3:20 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers ball, 3rd & 4 at TB 24(Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (29-A.Evans). PENALTY on CAR-29-A.Evans, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at TB 24 - No Play.Tampa Bay Buccaneers 59% → 65% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:59 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers ball, 4th & 5 at MID 509-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-41-K.Kieft at CAR 18.Tampa Bay Buccaneers 61% → 71% (+10 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:15 — Carolina Panthers ball, 3rd & 14 at CAR 40(Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (97-A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (97-A.Muhammad) [97-A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-94-C.Kancey at CAR 32. 94-C.Kancey for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Tampa Bay Buccaneers 69% → 83% (+14 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won after falling as low as 40% (Q1 14:52).
Game DNA
| Buccaneers | Points added | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2 | Passingdropbacks | -4.9 |
| -9.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.1 |
| +15.6 | Explosive plays9 plays · 5 plays | +11.6 |
| +5.1 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -17.2 |
| +2.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.5 |
| -1.8 | Penalties6 for 35 yds · 4 for 56 yds | -1.9 |
| +7.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 1 of 2 | -2.9 |
| +18.3 | All plays | -18.9 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 22.3 points to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The final margin was 30.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Carolina Panthers closed as the market favourite at 59% and lost.
The line moved toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Buccaneers +3 (-104)
Buccaneers +3 (-115)
Panthers -180 61%
Panthers -159 59%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Chris Godwin Jr. has 216 receiving yards for the Buccaneers (53rd of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 15.5%. Bucky Irving has 452 rushing yards on 96 carries (8th of 40 qualified running backs). Tetairoa McMillan has 471 receiving yards for the Panthers (9th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.4%. Chuba Hubbard has 426 rushing yards on 89 carries (9th of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries96
- Rush yards4528th
- Yards per carry4.711th
- EPA per rush−0.00215th
- Rush success rate37.5%23rd
- Targets / catches29 / 23
- Receiving yards21653rd
- Target share15.5%53rd
- Yards per target7.452nd
- EPA per target+0.23346th
- Targets / catches29 / 19
- Receiving yards18617th
- Target share15.5%18th
- Yards per target6.425th
- EPA per target+0.18824th
- Carries89
- Rush yards4269th
- Yards per carry4.89th
- EPA per rush+0.0885th
- Rush success rate48.3%6th
- Targets / catches48 / 32
- Receiving yards4719th
- Target share26.4%13th
- Yards per target9.820th
- EPA per target+0.45025th
- Targets / catches21 / 13
- Receiving yards14828th
- Target share11.5%29th
- Yards per target7.020th
- EPA per target+0.26611th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Buccaneers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBuccaneers offense vs Panthers defense | 38.5%27th | 42.3%13th |
| Early-down success ratePanthers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 41.7%10th | 45.4%12th |
| Early-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Panthers defense | −0.11528th | +0.01720th |
| Early-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.01712th | +0.1882nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBuccaneers offense vs Panthers defense | 36.8%23rd | 42.0%20th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePanthers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 33.8%8th | 38.8%19th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBuccaneers offense vs Panthers defense | −0.14224th | −0.06114th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Buccaneers defense | −0.3455th | −0.09820th |
| Red-zone TD rateBuccaneers offense vs Panthers defense | 50.0%25th | 76.9%29th |
| Red-zone TD ratePanthers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 52.9%11th | 70.0%8th |
| Red-zone success rateBuccaneers offense vs Panthers defense | 46.3%10th | 42.9%18th |
| Red-zone success ratePanthers offense vs Buccaneers defense | 44.2%21st | 50.0%5th |
On early downs the Buccaneers succeed on 38.5% of plays (27th) against a Panthers defense that allows 42.3% (13th); on 3rd down they convert 36.8% (23rd) against a defense allowing 42.0% (20th). On early downs the Panthers succeed on 45.4% of plays (12th) against a Buccaneers defense that allows 41.7% (10th); on 3rd down they convert 38.8% (19th) against a defense allowing 33.8% (8th). The Buccaneers score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (25th). The Panthers score touchdowns on 70.0% of red-zone trips (8th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Buccaneers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Todd Bowles | Dave Canales |
| Offensive coordinator | Zac Robinson | Brad Idzik |
| Defensive coordinator | — | Ejiro Evero |
| Offense tendencies | Buccaneers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | −2.1%19th-highest | 4.8%2nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 64.4%8th-highest | 65.1%7th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 56.5%14th-highest | 61.5%4th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 68.7%7th-highest | 63.1%14th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 8.3%10th-highest | 5.1%20th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.414th-slowest | 28.632nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 9.6%30th | 19.8%3rd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 6.4%27th | 10.6%6th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 9.1%16th | 12.0%6th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 9.1%29th | 5.5%15th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 2.94%29th | 0.89%4th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 62.313th-most | 67.22nd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 4 of 8 | 3 of 6 |
| Defense | Buccaneers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 4.8%23rd | 5.1%21st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 15.1%15th | 11.7%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 6.4%6th | 5.4%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 9.2%17th | 9.1%16th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.99%14th | 1.83%20th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 13.0%26th | 13.0%27th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 15.8%18th | 16.0%19th |
The Buccaneers run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.1% pass rate over expected, 19th-highest), while the Panthers sit at 4.8% (2nd-highest). In neutral situations the Buccaneers take 33.4 seconds between snaps and the Panthers 28.6, so the Panthers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Buccaneers have gone for it 4 of 8 times and the Panthers 3 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Buccaneers won 14 and the Panthers 8. In the most recent meeting (January 3, 2026), the Buccaneers won 16-14; the Panthers averaged −0.021 EPA per play; the Buccaneers averaged +0.006 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Panthers 14, Buccaneers 16 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -3 Panthers covered | 43.5 under | Panthers −0.021 · Buccaneers +0.006 |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Buccaneers 20, Panthers 23 Panthers won | Buccaneers -3 Panthers covered | 44.5 under | Panthers +0.101 · Buccaneers +0.107 |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Panthers 14, Buccaneers 48 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -9.5 Buccaneers covered | 47.5 over | Panthers −0.103 · Buccaneers +0.454 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -6.5 Panthers covered | 46 over | Panthers +0.002 · Buccaneers −0.031 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Buccaneers 9, Panthers 0 Buccaneers won | Buccaneers -5 Buccaneers covered | 36.5 under | Panthers −0.310 · Buccaneers −0.094 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers team stats
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Nov 1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16 (Oct 8)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (Oct 4)
Carolina Panthers
- Carolina Panthers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Oct 29)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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