Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Final — September 20, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3
Minnesota Vikings won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (Chicago Bears -4.5): Minnesota Vikings covered.
- Combined score 12 vs the closing total of 46.5: Under.
- Minnesota Vikings closed at +180 on the moneyline (a 34% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Vikings (1-0) visited the Bears (1-0) at Soldier Field on Sunday, September 20 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 2.
The Vikings have the 18th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 10th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Bears have the 1st-ranked offense and the 26th-ranked defense. When the Vikings have the ball, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.020 EPA per play) meets a 26th-ranked defense (+0.182 allowed); when the Bears have it, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.409) meets a 10th-ranked defense (−0.175 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Vikings offense is at 35.6% (29th) and the Bears offense at 54.3% (4th). Through the air, the Vikings average +0.075 EPA per dropback (15th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 25th; the Bears average +0.538 (3rd) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 11th. The Vikings score 39.0 points per game (3rd) and allow 22.0 (12th); the Bears score 59.0 (1st) and allow 37.0 (29th).
Caleb Williams has a 61.0% success rate (3rd of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Carson Wentz's 41.7% (20th). Per dropback, Williams is at +0.538 EPA to Wentz's +0.150, with 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Wentz's 3 and 0.
The Vikings are 1-0 and 1-0 against the spread; their last game was a 39-22 win over the Packers. The Bears are 1-0 and 1-0 against the spread; their last game was a 59-37 win over the Panthers.
The Bears closed as 4.5-point favorites at home against the Vikings. The spread opened at Bears -5.5. The total closed at 46.5, down from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Vikings +180, Bears -218) prices the Vikings at 34% and the Bears at 66%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Vikings2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks23
- Success rate41.7%20th
- EPA per dropback+0.15014th
- Completion %63.2%19th
- CPOE−7.327th
- Yards per attempt7.019th
- TD–INT3–0
- Sack rate13.0%29th
- Dropbacks38
- Success rate61.0%3rd
- EPA per dropback+0.5384th
- Completion %72.4%9th
- CPOE+16.62nd
- Yards per attempt9.36th
- TD–INT2–0
- Sack rate5.3%14th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings wide receivers with 92 receiving yards (9th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 39.1%. Jordan Mason has 59 rushing yards on 15 carries (18th of 47 qualified running backs). Kalif Raymond leads the Bears wide receivers with 84 receiving yards (10th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 34.6%. D'Andre Swift has 124 rushing yards on 18 carries (4th of 47 qualified running backs).
- Carries15
- Rush yards5918th
- Yards per carry3.929th
- EPA per rush−0.19838th
- Rush success rate20.0%44th
- Targets / catches9 / 8
- Receiving yards929th
- Target share39.1%2nd
- Yards per target10.225th
- EPA per target+1.2727th
- Targets / catches5 / 4
- Receiving yards3615th
- Target share21.7%6th
- Yards per target7.217th
- EPA per target+0.63411th
- Carries18
- Rush yards1244th
- Yards per carry6.93rd
- EPA per rush+0.5121st
- Rush success rate55.6%6th
- Targets / catches9 / 8
- Receiving yards8410th
- Target share34.6%4th
- Yards per target9.332nd
- EPA per target+0.71925th
- Targets / catches3 / 2
- Receiving yards3516th
- Target share11.5%28th
- Yards per target11.75th
- EPA per target+1.1925th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Vikings | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateVikings offense vs Bears defense | 25.0%32nd | 50.0%25th |
| Early-down success rateBears offense vs Vikings defense | 43.4%15th | 50.9%7th |
| Early-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Bears defense | −0.27932nd | +0.25129th |
| Early-down EPA per playBears offense vs Vikings defense | +0.12123rd | +0.3472nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateVikings offense vs Bears defense | 57.1%5th | 44.4%21st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBears offense vs Vikings defense | 25.0%8th | 71.4%3rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playVikings offense vs Bears defense | +0.7206th | +0.08019th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBears offense vs Vikings defense | −0.8443rd | +0.9272nd |
| Red-zone TD rateVikings offense vs Bears defense | 80.0%9th | 100.0%24th |
| Red-zone TD rateBears offense vs Vikings defense | 25.0%3rd | 100.0%1st |
| Red-zone success rateVikings offense vs Bears defense | 46.2%15th | 90.0%30th |
| Red-zone success rateBears offense vs Vikings defense | 30.0%6th | 66.7%4th |
On early downs the Vikings succeed on 25.0% of plays (32nd) against a Bears defense that allows 50.0% (25th); on 3rd down they convert 57.1% (5th) against a defense allowing 44.4% (21st). On early downs the Bears succeed on 50.9% of plays (7th) against a Vikings defense that allows 43.4% (15th); on 3rd down they convert 71.4% (3rd) against a defense allowing 25.0% (8th). The Vikings score touchdowns on 80.0% of red-zone trips (9th). The Bears score touchdowns on 100.0% of red-zone trips (1st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Vikings | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kevin O'Connell | Ben Johnson |
| Offensive coordinator | Wes Phillips | Press Taylor |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Flores | Dennis Allen |
| Offense tendencies | Vikings | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.6% | −8.6%28th-highest | −1.5%14th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 59.9% | 52.5%24th-highest | 54.3%23rd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.6% | 40.9%30th-highest | 49.1%23rd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.6% | 46.6%26th-highest | 47.1%25th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.8% | 6.9%13th-highest | 5.7%17th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.7 | 41.01st-slowest | 31.622nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 14.9% | 11.1%22nd | 19.4%6th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.0% | 3.7%23rd | 13.9%7th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 10.6% | 3.6%31st | 12.5%9th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 9.7%27th | 5.3%13th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 2.20% | 1.70%17th | 1.43%10th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.6 | 58.018th-most | 70.04th-most |
| Defense | Vikings | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 8.7%8th | 4.7%21st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 14.9% | 19.0%23rd | 24.4%29th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.0% | 16.7%30th | 14.6%27th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 10.6% | 9.5%16th | 10.5%20th |
| Takeaways per playleague 2.20% | 2.99%13th | 3.23%11th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 32.6%1st | 11.6%23rd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 16.7%21st | 7.9%5th |
The Vikings run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−8.6% pass rate over expected, 28th-highest), while the Bears sit at −1.5% (14th-highest). In neutral situations the Vikings take 41.0 seconds between snaps and the Bears 31.6, so the Bears play faster.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Brian O'Neill TQuestionableKnee
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Vikings have 7 days between games and the Bears 7. The Vikings travel about 355 miles.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
VikingsBearsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Vikings won 14 and the Bears 8. In the most recent meeting (November 16, 2025), the Bears won 19-17; the Bears averaged −0.048 EPA per play; the Vikings averaged −0.193 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | Bears 19, Vikings 17 Bears won | Vikings -3 Bears covered | 47.5 under | Bears −0.048 · Vikings −0.193 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Vikings 27, Bears 24 Vikings won | Vikings -1.5 Vikings covered | 43.5 over | Bears −0.071 · Vikings −0.177 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Bears 12, Vikings 30 Vikings won | Vikings -7 Vikings covered | 43.5 under | Bears −0.210 · Vikings +0.032 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Vikings 30, Bears 27 Vikings won | Vikings -3 push | 39.5 over | Bears +0.060 · Vikings +0.072 |
| Nov 27, 2023 | Bears 12, Vikings 10 Bears won | Vikings -3 Bears covered | 43.5 under | Bears −0.121 · Vikings −0.512 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Vikings +5.5 (-109)
Vikings +4.5 (-109)
Bears -245 68%
Bears -218 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings team stats
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (Oct 4)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 (Sep 13)
Chicago Bears
- Chicago Bears team stats
- New York Jets at Chicago Bears (Oct 4)
- Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27 (Sep 28)
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 20, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20 (Sep 20)
- Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Sep 20)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 (Sep 20)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
- Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 (Sep 20)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
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