Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Final — September 20, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20
New England Patriots won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (New England Patriots -4.5): New England Patriots covered.
- Combined score 23 vs the closing total of 41.5: Under.
- New England Patriots closed at -227 on the moneyline (a 67% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Steelers (1-0) visited the Patriots (0-1) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, September 20 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 2.
The Steelers have the 30th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 2nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots have the 21st-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense. When the Steelers have the ball, a 30th-ranked offense (−0.303 EPA per play) meets a 19th-ranked defense (+0.066 allowed); when the Patriots have it, a 21st-ranked offense (−0.110) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.321 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Steelers offense is at 32.8% (32nd) and the Patriots offense at 41.8% (21st). Through the air, the Steelers average −0.324 EPA per dropback (28th) against a Patriots pass defense ranked 23rd; the Patriots average +0.065 (16th) against a Steelers pass defense ranked 1st. The Steelers score 20.0 points per game (22nd) and allow 13.0 (6th); the Patriots score 10.0 (28th) and allow 13.0 (6th).
Drake Maye has a 51.2% success rate (9th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Aaron Rodgers' 35.7% (30th). Per dropback, Maye is at +0.065 EPA to Rodgers' −0.288, with 1 touchdown pass and 3 interceptions to Rodgers' 1 and 0.
The Steelers are 1-0 and 1-0 against the spread; their last game was a 20-13 win over the Falcons. The Patriots are 0-1 and 0-0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 13-10 loss to the Seahawks.
The Patriots closed as 4.5-point favorites at home against the Steelers. The spread opened at Patriots -5.5. The total closed at 41.5, down from 43.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Steelers +187, Patriots -227) prices the Steelers at 33% and the Patriots at 67%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Steelers2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks42
- Success rate35.7%30th
- EPA per dropback−0.28827th
- Completion %60.0%24th
- CPOE+1.216th
- Yards per attempt5.524th
- TD–INT1–0
- Sack rate4.8%12th
- Dropbacks42
- Success rate51.2%9th
- EPA per dropback+0.06516th
- Completion %69.7%13th
- CPOE+6.011th
- Yards per attempt5.425th
- TD–INT1–3
- Sack rate7.1%20th
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
DK Metcalf leads the Steelers wide receivers with 40 receiving yards (44th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 27.0%. Jaylen Warren has 46 rushing yards on 10 carries (25th of 47 qualified running backs). DeMario Douglas leads the Patriots wide receivers with 20 receiving yards (67th of 82 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.6%. Rhamondre Stevenson has 51 rushing yards on 18 carries (23rd of 47 qualified running backs).
- Carries10
- Rush yards4625th
- Yards per carry4.619th
- EPA per rush−0.12434th
- Rush success rate40.0%28th
- Targets / catches10 / 4
- Receiving yards4044th
- Target share27.0%14th
- Yards per target4.067th
- EPA per target−0.54469th
- Targets / catches5 / 5
- Receiving yards4613th
- Target share13.5%24th
- Yards per target9.210th
- EPA per target+0.74710th
- Carries18
- Rush yards5123rd
- Yards per carry2.845th
- EPA per rush−0.44747th
- Rush success rate27.8%38th
- Targets / catches7 / 5
- Receiving yards2067th
- Target share22.6%26th
- Yards per target2.975th
- EPA per target+0.07354th
- Targets / catches3 / 3
- Receiving yards2621st
- Target share9.7%32nd
- Yards per target8.711th
- EPA per target+0.03321st
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Steelers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSteelers offense vs Patriots defense | 36.2%28th | 42.9%14th |
| Early-down success ratePatriots offense vs Steelers defense | 44.4%17th | 40.8%24th |
| Early-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Patriots defense | −0.13826th | +0.07319th |
| Early-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Steelers defense | −0.2133rd | −0.13125th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSteelers offense vs Patriots defense | 25.0%23rd | 18.2%4th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePatriots offense vs Steelers defense | 16.7%2nd | 31.2%21st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSteelers offense vs Patriots defense | −0.61126th | −0.5098th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPatriots offense vs Steelers defense | −0.7256th | −0.33622nd |
| Red-zone TD rateSteelers offense vs Patriots defense | 50.0%20th | 0.0%1st |
| Red-zone success rateSteelers offense vs Patriots defense | 33.3%22nd | 16.7%2nd |
On early downs the Steelers succeed on 36.2% of plays (28th) against a Patriots defense that allows 42.9% (14th); on 3rd down they convert 25.0% (23rd) against a defense allowing 18.2% (4th). On early downs the Patriots succeed on 40.8% of plays (24th) against a Steelers defense that allows 44.4% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 31.2% (21st) against a defense allowing 16.7% (2nd). The Steelers score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (20th). The Patriots score touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (20th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Steelers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike McCarthy | Mike Vrabel |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Angelichio | Josh McDaniels |
| Defensive coordinator | Patrick Graham | Zak Kuhr |
| Offense tendencies | Steelers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.6% | 10.6%1st-highest | −2.6%18th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 59.9% | 70.5%6th-highest | 62.7%14th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.6% | 61.7%11th-highest | 53.1%17th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.6% | 57.4%17th-highest | 55.2%18th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.8% | 6.6%14th-highest | 0.0%30th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.7 | 30.325th-slowest | 32.321st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 14.9% | 14.6%17th | 7.7%27th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.0% | 7.3%16th | 0.0%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 10.6% | 5.6%27th | 4.0%30th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 4.7%11th | 7.1%19th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 2.20% | 1.64%15th | 4.48%31st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.6 | 61.015th-most | 67.06th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 45.7% | — | 1 of 2 |
| Defense | Steelers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 15.4%2nd | 7.4%12th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 14.9% | 18.2%22nd | 12.0%12th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.0% | 13.6%25th | 12.0%22nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 10.6% | 9.7%17th | 10.0%19th |
| Takeaways per playleague 2.20% | 3.51%9th | 0.00%25th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 19.2%10th | 22.2%6th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.0%13th | 14.3%14th |
The Steelers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (10.6% pass rate over expected, 1st-highest), while the Patriots sit at −2.6% (18th-highest). In neutral situations the Steelers take 30.3 seconds between snaps and the Patriots 32.3, so the Steelers play faster.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Joey Porter Jr. CBOutBack
- Troy Fautanu TQuestionableAnkle
- Michael Pittman WRQuestionableFoot
- Carlton Davis III CBOutNeck
- Ben Brown CQuestionableKnee
- Dre'Mont Jones LBQuestionableFoot
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Steelers have 7 days between games and the Patriots 11. The Steelers travel about 468 miles.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
SteelersPatriotsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 9 times since 2015: the Steelers won 2 and the Patriots 7. In the most recent meeting (September 21, 2025), the Steelers won 21-14; the Patriots averaged −0.157 EPA per play; the Steelers averaged −0.052 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Steelers 21, Patriots 14 Steelers won | Steelers -1.5 Steelers covered | 44.5 under | Patriots −0.157 · Steelers −0.052 |
| Dec 7, 2023 | Patriots 21, Steelers 18 Patriots won | Steelers -6 Patriots covered | 30 over | Patriots −0.059 · Steelers −0.306 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Patriots 17, Steelers 14 Patriots won | Patriots -3 push | 40 under | Patriots +0.142 · Steelers −0.063 |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Steelers 3, Patriots 33 Patriots won | Patriots -5.5 Patriots covered | 49 under | Patriots +0.236 · Steelers −0.226 |
| Dec 16, 2018 | Patriots 10, Steelers 17 Steelers won | Patriots -2.5 Steelers covered | 55 under | Patriots +0.060 · Steelers +0.125 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Steelers +5.5 (-110)
Steelers +4.5 (-105)
Patriots -235 67%
Patriots -227 67%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pittsburgh Steelers team stats
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27 (Oct 1)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
New England Patriots
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 20, 2026
- Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3 (Sep 20)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
- Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Sep 20)
- Philadelphia Eagles 24, Tennessee Titans 20 (Sep 20)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 20)
- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
- Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35 (Sep 20)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
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