Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers Final — November 8, 2026
LVStarting quarterbacksexpected startersSF
LVOffense2026 regular season to dateSFLVDefenseSFLVRecent formSFLVHome and roadseason to dateSFInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
LVRest & travelSFLVKey injuriesSFAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Raiders (4-4) visited the 49ers (6-1) at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, November 8 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 9.
The Raiders have the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 28th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers have the 1st-ranked offense and the 8th-ranked defense. When the Raiders have the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (+0.017 EPA per play) meets a 8th-ranked defense (−0.043 allowed); when the 49ers have it, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.177) meets a 28th-ranked defense (+0.078 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Raiders offense is at 42.4% (17th) and the 49ers offense at 53.4% (1st). Through the air, the Raiders average +0.158 EPA per dropback (7th) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 15th; the 49ers average +0.290 (2nd) against a Raiders pass defense ranked 27th. The Raiders score 27.6 points per game (6th) and allow 28.8 (31st); the 49ers score 28.1 (4th) and allow 19.9 (6th).
Over the last five games, the Raiders rank 14th on offense and 32nd on defense by EPA per play; the 49ers rank 4th and 15th.
Brock Purdy has a 55.1% success rate (2nd of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Kirk Cousins' 48.8% (11th). Per dropback, Purdy is at +0.287 EPA to Cousins' +0.170, with 15 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Cousins' 19 and 5.
The Raiders are 4-4 and 6-2 against the spread; their last game was a 38-33 win over the Jets. The 49ers are 6-1 and 4-3 against the spread; their last game was a 29-20 loss to the Falcons. The 49ers are coming off a bye.
The 49ers closed as 8.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Raiders +345, 49ers -455) prices the Raiders at 22% and the 49ers at 78%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38
San Francisco 49ers won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (San Francisco 49ers -8.5): San Francisco 49ers covered.
- Combined score 55 vs the closing total of 51.5: Over.
- San Francisco 49ers closed at -455 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Las Vegas Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Las Vegas Raiders 22%, San Francisco 49ers 78%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Raiders | Points added | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| -4.4 | Passingdropbacks | +2.1 |
| -4.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.9 |
| +14.1 | Explosive plays8 plays · 10 plays | +16.9 |
| -22.5 | Turnovers5 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.0 |
| +6.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.5 |
| +2.4 | Penalties5 for 29 yds · 7 for 59 yds | +1.3 |
| +0.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 3 of 4 | +4.7 |
| -8.1 | All plays | +14.5 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 16.4 points to San Francisco 49ers. The final margin was 21.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
San Francisco 49ers closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
The line moved toward Las Vegas Raiders before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Raiders +8.5 (-109)
Raiders +8.5 (-108)
49ers -500 80%
49ers -455 78%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Tre Tucker has 474 receiving yards for the Raiders (19th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 17.2%. Mike Washington Jr. has 278 rushing yards on 65 carries (31st of 42 qualified running backs). Christian McCaffrey has 389 rushing yards on 84 carries (20th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries65
- Rush yards27831st
- Yards per carry4.319th
- EPA per rush−0.11426th
- Rush success rate30.8%38th
- Targets / catches48 / 29
- Receiving yards47419th
- Target share17.2%49th
- Yards per target9.915th
- EPA per target+0.43223rd
- Targets / catches61 / 41
- Receiving yards5471st
- Target share27.6%1st
- Yards per target9.09th
- EPA per target+0.5594th
- Carries84
- Rush yards38920th
- Yards per carry4.613th
- EPA per rush+0.1442nd
- Rush success rate53.6%1st
- Targets / catches8 / 3
- Receiving yards33
- Target share6.5%
- Yards per target4.1
- EPA per target−0.284
- Targets / catches46 / 34
- Receiving yards4253rd
- Target share22.4%5th
- Yards per target9.26th
- EPA per target+0.34911th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Raiders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateRaiders offense vs 49ers defense | 41.9%20th | 43.7%17th |
| Early-down success rate49ers offense vs Raiders defense | 48.1%31st | 52.8%1st |
| Early-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs 49ers defense | +0.00119th | −0.0617th |
| Early-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Raiders defense | +0.10430th | +0.1751st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateRaiders offense vs 49ers defense | 42.6%11th | 38.3%11th |
| 3rd-down conversion rate49ers offense vs Raiders defense | 43.0%24th | 50.0%2nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playRaiders offense vs 49ers defense | +0.2294th | +0.02920th |
| 3rd-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Raiders defense | −0.04914th | +0.1158th |
| Red-zone TD rateRaiders offense vs 49ers defense | 54.5%21st | 47.8%7th |
| Red-zone TD rate49ers offense vs Raiders defense | 70.6%27th | 87.0%1st |
| Red-zone success rateRaiders offense vs 49ers defense | 30.9%32nd | 44.1%18th |
| Red-zone success rate49ers offense vs Raiders defense | 51.1%29th | 56.2%1st |
On early downs the Raiders succeed on 41.9% of plays (20th) against a 49ers defense that allows 43.7% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 42.6% (11th) against a defense allowing 38.3% (11th). On early downs the 49ers succeed on 52.8% of plays (1st) against a Raiders defense that allows 48.1% (31st); on 3rd down they convert 50.0% (2nd) against a defense allowing 43.0% (24th). The Raiders score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (21st). The 49ers score touchdowns on 87.0% of red-zone trips (1st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Raiders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Klint Kubiak | Kyle Shanahan |
| Offensive coordinator | Andrew Janocko | Klay Kubiak |
| Defensive coordinator | Rob Leonard | Raheem Morris |
| Offense tendencies | Raiders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −2.4%18th-highest | 1.7%5th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 62.0%12th-highest | 57.9%24th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 55.8%15th-highest | 54.7%16th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 55.7%24th-highest | 49.0%30th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 8.0%8th-highest | 2.0%30th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.712th-slowest | 34.26th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 18.0%10th | 18.8%6th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.2%13th | 11.2%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 6.3%29th | 11.8%8th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 3.5%4th | 3.0%1st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.20%7th | 1.99%16th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 62.111th-most | 57.128th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 7 of 12 | 5 of 8 |
| Defense | Raiders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 6.3%15th | 5.6%20th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 18.4%28th | 11.5%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.4%18th | 5.5%4th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 14.2%31st | 3.1%1st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 2.64%5th | 1.38%28th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 17.5%6th | 13.8%24th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.3%21st | 11.3%3rd |
The Raiders run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.4% pass rate over expected, 18th-highest), while the 49ers sit at 1.7% (5th-highest). In neutral situations the Raiders take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the 49ers 34.2, so the Raiders play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Raiders have gone for it 7 of 12 times and the 49ers 5 of 8.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Raiders won 0 and the 49ers 2. In the most recent meeting (January 1, 2023), the 49ers won 37-34; the Raiders averaged +0.062 EPA per play; the 49ers averaged +0.306 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2023 | 49ers 37, Raiders 34 49ers won | 49ers -10 Raiders covered | 41.5 over | Raiders +0.062 · 49ers +0.306 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | Raiders 3, 49ers 34 49ers won | Raiders -1.5 49ers covered | 44 under | Raiders −0.138 · 49ers +0.312 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Las Vegas Raiders
- Las Vegas Raiders team stats
- Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders (Nov 15)
- Las Vegas Raiders 38, New York Jets 33 (Nov 1)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
San Francisco 49ers
- San Francisco 49ers team stats
- San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (Nov 15)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 (Oct 19)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
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