Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning Final — October 29, 2026
WPGStarting goaliesTB
WPGOffense2026-27 regular season to dateTBWPGDefenseTBWPGTeamTBWPG5-on-5TBWPGSpecial teamsTBWPGRecent formTBWPGHome and roadseason to dateTBInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
WPGRest & travelTBWPGKey injuriesTBAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 29, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Jets (4-5-3) visited the Lightning (7-3-1) on Thursday, October 29 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Jets score 2.33 goals per game (29th of 32) and allow 3.00 (10th). The Lightning score 3.45 goals per game (10th of 32) and allow 3.09 (15th). The Jets earn 45.8% of available standings points (24th) and the Lightning 68.2% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Jets 45.9% (24th), Lightning 54.9% (8th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Jets 48.5% (17th), Lightning 55.6% (4th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Jets 29.4% (31st), Lightning 51.3% (15th).
The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jets +180, Lightning -225) prices the Jets at 34% and the Lightning at 66%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Tampa Bay Lightning won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5): Tampa Bay Lightning covered.
- Combined score 10 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Tampa Bay Lightning closed at -225 on the moneyline (a 66% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Winnipeg Jets.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Winnipeg Jets 34%, Tampa Bay Lightning 66%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 2:20 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (0-1)Tampa Bay Lightning 66% → 79% (+13 pts)
- 1st 17:45 — Winnipeg Jets goal (1-1)Winnipeg Jets 21% → 36% (+15 pts)
- 2nd 9:43 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (1-2)Tampa Bay Lightning 62% → 80% (+19 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 82% of G&W replays (Winnipeg Jets 18%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tampa Bay Lightning. Here is where that came from.
| Jets | Goals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.1 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 2.0 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 1.7 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.2 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| +2.3 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.8 |
| -0.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Stuart Skinner 16/21, Nico Daws 9/9 · Andrei Vasilevskiy 17/21 | -2.3 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from Tampa Bay Lightning's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Tampa Bay Lightning closed as the market favourite at 66% and won.
The line moved toward Winnipeg Jets before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Jets +1.5 (-125)
Jets +1.5 (-142)
Lightning -236 67%
Lightning -225 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Jets won 9 and the Lightning 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Lightning 1, Jets 4 Jets won | Lightning -200 underdog won | 6 under |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Jets 1, Lightning 4 Lightning won | Lightning -190 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Jets 1, Lightning 4 Lightning won | Lightning -142 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Lightning 4, Jets 7 Jets won | Jets -150 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 2, 2024 | Lightning 2, Jets 4 Jets won | Jets -137 favorite won | 6 push |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Winnipeg Jets
- Winnipeg Jets team stats
- Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets (Nov 5)
- Winnipeg Jets 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (Nov 3)
- Winnipeg Jets 0, Carolina Hurricanes 7 (Nov 1)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Florida Panthers 5 (Oct 30)
Tampa Bay Lightning
More NHL games on October 29, 2026
- Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (Oct 29)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (Oct 29)
- Chicago Blackhawks 1, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 29)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Dallas Stars 2 (Oct 29)
- New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (Oct 29)
- Washington Capitals 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 29)
- Boston Bruins 1, St Louis Blues 4 (Oct 29)
- Buffalo Sabres 7, Anaheim Ducks 6 (Oct 29)
- Ottawa Senators 5, Los Angeles Kings 6 (Oct 29)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (Oct 29)
Dig deeper
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