Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins Final — October 29, 2026
UTAHStarting goaliesPIT
UTAHOffense2026-27 regular season to datePITUTAHDefensePITUTAHTeamPITUTAH5-on-5PITUTAHSpecial teamsPITUTAHRecent formPITUTAHHome and roadseason to datePITInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
UTAHRest & travelPITUTAHKey injuriesPITAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 29, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Mammoth (8-5-0) visited the Penguins (5-6-1) on Thursday, October 29 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Mammoth score 3.62 goals per game (8th of 32) and allow 3.31 (20th). The Penguins score 3.33 goals per game (11th of 32) and allow 3.33 (22nd). The Mammoth earn 61.5% of available standings points (11th) and the Penguins 45.8% (24th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Mammoth 60.2% (2nd), Penguins 54.8% (9th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Mammoth 56.1% (3rd), Penguins 52.0% (13th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Mammoth 70.2% (1st), Penguins 64.4% (4th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Mammoth -130, Penguins +110) prices the Mammoth at 54% and the Penguins at 46%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Utah Mammoth 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Utah Mammoth won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5): Pittsburgh Penguins covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Utah Mammoth closed at -130 on the moneyline (a 54% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Utah Mammoth 54%, Pittsburgh Penguins 46%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 19:35 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (2-3)Pittsburgh Penguins 48% → 98% (+49 pts)
- 3rd 19:59 — Utah Mammoth goal (3-3)Utah Mammoth <1% → 52% (+51 pts)
- OT 3:27 — Utah Mammoth goal (4-3)Utah Mammoth 51% → 100% (+49 pts)
Utah Mammoth won after falling as low as <1% (3rd 19:59).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Utah Mammoth won 61% of G&W replays (Pittsburgh Penguins 39%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Utah Mammoth. Here is where that came from.
| Mammoth | Goals | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.4 |
| 0.1 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.2 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 3.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.7 |
| 1.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.3 |
| 0.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| -0.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.0 |
| -0.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Sebastian Cossa 31/34 · Arturs Silovs 30/34 | +0.8 |
How the margin was built, from Utah Mammoth's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Utah Mammoth closed as the market favourite at 54% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Mammoth -1.5 (+187)
Mammoth -1.5 (+175)
Penguins +110 46%
Penguins +110 46%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 15 times since 2018-19: the Mammoth won 4 and the Penguins 11.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Penguins 4, Mammoth 5 Mammoth won | Mammoth -185 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Penguins 4, Mammoth 3 Penguins won | Mammoth -148 underdog won | 6 over |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Mammoth 5, Penguins 4 OT Mammoth won | Mammoth -132 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Penguins 3, Mammoth 2 OT Penguins won | ||
| Nov 23, 2024 | Mammoth 6, Penguins 1 Mammoth won |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Utah Mammoth
- Utah Mammoth team stats
- Utah Mammoth at Montréal Canadiens (Nov 5)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Nov 3)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6 (Nov 1)
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
Pittsburgh Penguins
More NHL games on October 29, 2026
- Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (Oct 29)
- Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (Oct 29)
- Chicago Blackhawks 1, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 29)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Dallas Stars 2 (Oct 29)
- New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (Oct 29)
- Washington Capitals 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 29)
- Boston Bruins 1, St Louis Blues 4 (Oct 29)
- Buffalo Sabres 7, Anaheim Ducks 6 (Oct 29)
- Ottawa Senators 5, Los Angeles Kings 6 (Oct 29)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (Oct 29)
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