Carolina Hurricanes vs Philadelphia Flyers Final — October 3, 2026
CARStarting goaliesPHI
CAROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)PHICARDefensePHICARTeamPHICAR5-on-5PHICARSpecial teamsPHICARRecent formPHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CARRest & travelPHICARKey injuriesPHIAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 3, 6:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Hurricanes (0-1-1) visited the Flyers (0-1-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Hurricanes scored 3.61 goals per game (2nd of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Flyers scored 3.05 goals per game (20th of 32) and allowed 2.96 (9th). The Hurricanes earned 68.9% of available standings points (2nd) and the Flyers 59.8% (10th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Hurricanes 56.4% (2nd), Flyers 51.0% (11th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Hurricanes 59.8% (1st), Flyers 47.7% (26th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Hurricanes 53.7% (8th), Flyers 53.7% (9th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hurricanes -139, Flyers +114) prices the Hurricanes at 55% and the Flyers at 45%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Carolina Hurricanes won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Philadelphia Flyers +1.5): Philadelphia Flyers covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
- Carolina Hurricanes closed at -139 on the moneyline (a 55% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Philadelphia Flyers 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Carolina Hurricanes.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Carolina Hurricanes 55%, Philadelphia Flyers 45%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 4:59 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (2-2)Carolina Hurricanes 26% → 55% (+30 pts)
- OT 1:33 — Carolina Hurricanes giveawayCarolina Hurricanes 26% → 52% (+26 pts)
- OT 2:51 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (3-2)Carolina Hurricanes 70% → 100% (+30 pts)
Carolina Hurricanes won after falling as low as 21% (OT 0:00).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Carolina Hurricanes won 73% of G&W replays (Philadelphia Flyers 27%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Carolina Hurricanes. Here is where that came from.
| Hurricanes | Goals | Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.5 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.7 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.9 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.2 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.4 |
| 0.9 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| -1.1 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.6 |
| +0.6 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Pyotr Kochetkov 16/18 · Joseph Woll 37/40 | +1.1 |
How the margin was built, from Carolina Hurricanes's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Carolina Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 55% and won.
The line moved toward Carolina Hurricanes before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Hurricanes -1.5 (+184)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+180)
Flyers +110 46%
Flyers +114 45%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 27 times since 2018-19: the Hurricanes won 21 and the Flyers 6.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Hurricanes 2, Flyers 3 SO Flyers won | ||
| Dec 14, 2025 | Flyers 2, Hurricanes 3 SO Hurricanes won | Hurricanes -250 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Hurricanes 4, Flyers 3 SO Hurricanes won | Hurricanes -180 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Flyers 3, Hurricanes 4 OT Hurricanes won | Hurricanes -300 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Hurricanes 5, Flyers 0 Hurricanes won | Hurricanes -170 favorite won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Carolina Hurricanes
- Carolina Hurricanes team stats
- Boston Bruins 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (Oct 27)
- Carolina Hurricanes 4, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 24)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
Philadelphia Flyers
- Philadelphia Flyers team stats
- Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals (Oct 28)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (Oct 27)
- Anaheim Ducks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (Oct 24)
- Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 1 (Oct 21)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 3, 2026
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- Utah Mammoth 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 3)
- Seattle Kraken 1, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 3)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (Oct 3)
- Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (Oct 3)
- Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Oct 3)
- New Jersey Devils 0, New York Islanders 6 (Oct 3)
- Boston Bruins 1, Minnesota Wild 4 (Oct 3)
- Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 3)
- St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 3)
- Los Angeles Kings 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (Oct 3)
- Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 4 (Oct 3)
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