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NCAAF · October 17, 2026

Florida Gators vs Texas Longhorns Final — October 17, 2026

Florida Gators logo
3-2
27
Quarterback Aaron Philo
FINAL
Texas Longhorns logo
4-1
24
Quarterback Arch Manning
Saturday, October 17 · 12:00 PM ET
FLAOffense2026 regular season to dateTEX
21st+0.250
EPA/play
+0.01387th
19th51.9%
Success %
47.2%66th
8th39.6
PPG
31.439th
FLADefenseTEX
115th+0.210
EPA/play allowed
−0.10914th
96th48.8%
Success % allowed
41.9%17th
118th34.2
Opp PPG
16.013th
FLARecent formTEX
Wvs Campbell 52-3W@ Auburn 44-39Wvs Ole Miss 52-28L@ Missouri 17-45Lvs South Carolina 19-38
Resultsoldest to newest
Wvs Texas State 59-7Wvs Ohio State 24-23Wvs UTSA 30-6W@ Tennessee 20-17L@ Oklahoma 24-27
4-2
Record
4-1
3-3
ATS
1-4
4-2
Over–under
2-3
FLAHome and roadseason to dateTEX
3-1
Home record
3-0
1-1
Road record
1-1
2-2
Home ATS
1-2
1-1
Road ATS
0-2
2-2
Home O/U
1-2
2-0
Road O/U
1-1
FLALast 10 gamesTEX
+45+49+5+24-28-19
Game by game
+52+1+24+3-3
4-2
Last 6
—
+76
Net points
+77
—
Last 5
4-1
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Rest & travelrest and travel
FLARest & travelTEX
7 days
Days of rest
7 days
921 mi1,482 km
Travel to the game
Home
−1 hclock change vs home
Time-zone change
Home
Venue
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

Florida (3-2) visited Texas (4-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.

Florida has the 21st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 115th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Texas has the 87th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense. When Florida has the ball, a 21st-ranked offense (+0.250 EPA per play) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.109 allowed); when Texas has it, a 87th-ranked offense (+0.013) meets a 115th-ranked defense (+0.210 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Florida offense is at 51.9% (19th) and the Texas offense at 47.2% (66th). Florida scores 39.6 points per game (8th) and allows 34.2 (118th); Texas scores 31.4 (39th) and allows 16.0 (13th).

Florida is 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread; its last game was a 38-19 loss to South Carolina. Texas is 4-1 and 1-4 against the spread; its last game was a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma.

Texas closed as a 13.5-point favorite at home against Florida. The spread opened at Texas -10.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Florida +400, Texas -532) prices Florida at 19% and Texas at 81%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24

Florida Gators won by 3.

  • Against the closing spread (Texas Longhorns -13.5): Florida Gators covered.
  • Combined score 51 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
  • Florida Gators closed at +400 on the moneyline (a 19% no-vig market-implied chance).

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playFlorida Gators +11.5 -1101.00uWIN +1.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 3
OpenTexas -10.5 (-109)
Florida +10.5 (-113)
CloseTexas -13.5 (-107)
Florida +13.5 (-112)
Totaldown 3
Open54.5 (o -113 / u -109)
Close51.5 (o -110 / u -110)
Moneyline
OpenFlorida +290 25%
Texas -375 75%
CloseFlorida +400 19%
Texas -532 81%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %

Matchup

Players to watch

Florida Gators logo
Florida
QB · Aaron Philo
  • Attempts149
  • Completion %70.5%17th
  • Passing yards1,34176th
  • Yards per attempt9.040th
  • TD–INT9–3
Leading rusher (RB) · Jadan Baugh
  • Rushing yards6728th
  • Season line110 carries, 672 yds, 12 TD
Leading receiver (WR) · Dallas Wilson
  • Receiving yards37664th
  • Season line26 catches, 376 yds, 3 TD
Leading tackler (LB) · Myles Graham
  • Tackles4286th
Texas Longhorns logo
Texas
QB · Arch Manning
  • Attempts147
  • Completion %63.3%106th
  • Passing yards1,125116th
  • Yards per attempt7.7108th
  • TD–INT10–5
Leading rusher (RB) · Hollywood Smothers
  • Rushing yards237184th
  • Season line53 carries, 237 yds, 2 TD
Leading receiver (WR) · Cam Coleman
  • Receiving yards318107th
  • Season line17 catches, 318 yds, 5 TD
Leading tackler (LB) · Rasheem Biles
  • Tackles4197th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

SituationFloridaTexas
Early-down success rateFlorida offense vs Texas defense46.9%27th36.3%8th
Early-down success rateTexas offense vs Florida defense43.4%73rd42.6%77th
3rd-down conversion rateFlorida offense vs Texas defense46.3%31st28.8%6th
3rd-down conversion rateTexas offense vs Florida defense56.2%136th42.4%59th
Explosive play rateFlorida offense vs Texas defense9.0%19th4.5%12th
Explosive play rateTexas offense vs Florida defense7.0%79th5.2%110th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks41.9%123rd-highest49.7%82nd-highest

On 3rd down Florida converts 46.3% (31st) against a Texas defense allowing 28.8% (6th).

On 3rd down Texas converts 42.4% (59th) against a Florida defense allowing 56.2% (136th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

StaffFloridaTexas
Head coachJon SumrallSteve Sarkisian
Tenureat this school1st season6th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below4–250–21
Career recordas an FBS head coach47–1496–56
Offensive coordinatorBuster FaulknerKyle Flood
Defensive coordinatorBrad WhiteWill Muschamp / Johnny Nansen

Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Florida won 1 and Texas 1.

DateScoreLineTotal
Oct 4, 2025Texas 21, Florida 29
Florida won


Nov 9, 2024Florida 17, Texas 49
Texas won


Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Teams

Florida Gators

Texas Longhorns

Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.

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