Pittsburgh Panthers vs Miami Hurricanes Final — October 24, 2026
PITTOffense2026 regular season to dateMIA
PITTDefenseMIAPITTRecent formMIAPITTHome and roadseason to dateMIAPITTLast 10 gamesMIARest & travelrest and travel
PITTRest & travelMIAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Pittsburgh (4-2) visited Miami (5-0) on Saturday, October 24 at 12:00 PM ET.
Pittsburgh has the 92nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 43rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Miami has the 13th-ranked offense and the 53rd-ranked defense. When Pittsburgh has the ball, a 92nd-ranked offense (+0.004 EPA per play) meets a 53rd-ranked defense (+0.023 allowed); when Miami has it, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.266) meets a 43rd-ranked defense (−0.015 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Pittsburgh offense is at 44.4% (94th) and the Miami offense at 56.6% (1st). Pittsburgh scores 28.5 points per game (52nd) and allows 19.2 (28th); Miami scores 42.8 (1st) and allows 15.4 (10th).
Pittsburgh is 5-2; its last game was a 27-21 loss to Boston College. Miami is 6-0 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 43-35 win over Florida State.
Miami closed as a 20.5-point favorite at home against Pittsburgh. The spread opened at Miami -22.5. The total closed at 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Pittsburgh +1000, Miami -2000) prices Pittsburgh at 9% and Miami at 91%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52
Miami Hurricanes won by 29.
- Against the closing spread (Miami Hurricanes -20.5): Miami Hurricanes covered.
- Combined score 75 vs the closing total of 50.5: Over.
- Miami Hurricanes closed at -2000 on the moneyline (a 91% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Pittsburgh Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Pittsburgh Panthers 9%, Miami Hurricanes 91%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Pittsburgh | Points added | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 | Passingdropbacks | -4.0 |
| -6.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.5 |
| +22.2 | Explosive plays5 plays · 5 plays | +18.3 |
| -3.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -4.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +6.7 |
| +2.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -4.2 |
| +2.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 6 of 7 | +12.0 |
| +11.6 | All plays | +26.4 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 11.6 points to Miami Hurricanes. The final margin was 29.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Miami Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 91% and won.
The line moved toward Pittsburgh Panthers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Pittsburgh +22.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh +20.5 (-105)
Miami -2668 93%
Miami -2000 91%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts23
- Completion %43.5%
- Passing yards181
- Yards per attempt7.9
- TD–INT1–2
- Rushing yards43862nd
- Season line83 carries, 438 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards50032nd
- Season line26 catches, 500 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles46110th
- Attempts167
- Completion %80.8%1st
- Passing yards1,76431st
- Yards per attempt10.62nd
- TD–INT18–1
- Rushing yards39789th
- Season line52 carries, 397 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards7584th
- Season line50 catches, 758 yds, 8 TD
- Tackles30427th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Pittsburgh | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePittsburgh offense vs Miami defense | 41.3%92nd | 43.1%70th |
| Early-down success rateMiami offense vs Pittsburgh defense | 34.5%3rd | 50.4%3rd |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePittsburgh offense vs Miami defense | 38.7%84th | 35.7%35th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMiami offense vs Pittsburgh defense | 40.0%65th | 51.0%14th |
| Explosive play ratePittsburgh offense vs Miami defense | 5.1%118th | 7.5%90th |
| Explosive play rateMiami offense vs Pittsburgh defense | 7.8%101st | 9.3%13th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 49.0%86th-highest | 50.7%72nd-highest |
On 3rd down Pittsburgh converts 38.7% (84th) against a Miami defense allowing 35.7% (35th).
On 3rd down Miami converts 51.0% (14th) against a Pittsburgh defense allowing 40.0% (65th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Pittsburgh | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Pat Narduzzi | Mario Cristobal |
| Tenureat this school | 12th season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 85–63 | 41–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 85–63 | 103–79 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kade Bell | Shannon Dawson |
| Defensive coordinator | Cory Sanders | Corey Hetherman |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Pittsburgh won 1 and Miami 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Miami 38, Pittsburgh 7 Miami won | ||
| Nov 26, 2022 | Pittsburgh 42, Miami 16 Pittsburgh won | ||
| Oct 30, 2021 | Miami 38, Pittsburgh 34 Miami won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Pittsburgh Panthers
- Pittsburgh Panthers team stats
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Pittsburgh Panthers (Oct 31)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 35, Virginia Tech Hokies 33 (Oct 2)
Miami Hurricanes
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
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- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
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- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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