North Texas Mean Green vs Navy Midshipmen Final — October 24, 2026
UNTOffense2026 regular season to dateNAVY
UNTDefenseNAVYUNTRecent formNAVYUNTHome and roadseason to dateNAVYUNTLast 10 gamesNAVYRest & travelrest and travel
UNTRest & travelNAVYAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
North Texas (3-2) visited Navy (1-4) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET.
North Texas has the 4th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 105th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Navy has the 49th-ranked offense and the 87th-ranked defense. When North Texas has the ball, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.319 EPA per play) meets a 87th-ranked defense (+0.119 allowed); when Navy has it, a 49th-ranked offense (+0.127) meets a 105th-ranked defense (+0.166 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the North Texas offense is at 49.6% (38th) and the Navy offense at 50.4% (28th). North Texas scores 38.0 points per game (8th) and allows 32.2 (112th); Navy scores 25.4 (73rd) and allows 28.0 (82nd).
North Texas is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 50-10 win over Charlotte. Navy is 2-4 and 2-4 against the spread; its last game was a 38-34 loss to UTSA.
North Texas closed as a 3-point road favorite, with Navy getting the points at home. The spread opened at North Texas -1.5. The total closed at 60.5, down from 61.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (North Texas -150, Navy +125) prices North Texas at 57% and Navy at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
North Texas Mean Green 49, Navy Midshipmen 39
North Texas Mean Green won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Navy Midshipmen +3): North Texas Mean Green covered.
- Combined score 88 vs the closing total of 60.5: Over.
- North Texas Mean Green closed at -150 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward North Texas Mean Green.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (North Texas Mean Green 57%, Navy Midshipmen 43%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 11:38 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 4th & 3 at UNT 42#89 L.Hutchison rush right for 10 yards loss to the Navy48 (#10 D.Onuoha), TURNOVER ON DOWNSNorth Texas Mean Green 57% → 66% (+9 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 10:05 — North Texas Mean Green ball, 1st & 10 at UNT 45Shotgun #1 J.White rush right for 10 yards gain to the Navy45 (#52 N.McCamy), 1ST DOWNNorth Texas Mean Green 66% → 74% (+8 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 10:35 — North Texas Mean Green ball, 2nd & 10 at UNT 44No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep middle to #13 J.Stevenson caught at Navy12, for 46 yards to the Navy10, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNNorth Texas Mean Green 74% → 81% (+7 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:55 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 1st & 10 at UNT 39Zakye Barker 63 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic De Freitas Kick)North Texas Mean Green 83% → 95% (+13 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:38 — North Texas Mean Green ball, 1st & 10 at UNT 41No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.White rush right for 59 yards gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:38, 1ST DOWN #90 D.De Freitas kick attempt good (H: #37 I.Ratliff, LS…North Texas Mean Green 77% → 90% (+13 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| North Texas | Points added | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 | Passingdropbacks | +0.2 |
| +1.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -13.8 |
| +17.5 | Explosive plays8 plays · 9 plays | +28.6 |
| -3.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -10.6 |
| +3.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.0 |
| -1.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +6.0 |
| +3.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 4 of 5 | +7.4 |
| +19.3 | All plays | +14.9 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 15.5 points to North Texas Mean Green. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
North Texas Mean Green closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
The line moved toward North Texas Mean Green before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
North Texas -1.5 (-110)
North Texas -3 (-109)
Navy +101 48%
Navy +125 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts199
- Completion %72.4%9th
- Passing yards1,85920th
- Yards per attempt9.324th
- TD–INT15–4
- Rushing yards68712th
- Season line96 carries, 687 yds, 9 TD
- Receiving yards45350th
- Season line33 catches, 453 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles45126th
- Attempts54
- Completion %46.3%
- Passing yards559
- Yards per attempt10.3
- TD–INT6–1
- Rushing yards64416th
- Season line123 carries, 644 yds, 9 TD
- Receiving yards189377th
- Season line5 catches, 189 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4987th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | North Texas | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNorth Texas offense vs Navy defense | 43.2%68th | 35.1%4th |
| Early-down success rateNavy offense vs North Texas defense | 47.8%125th | 49.8%8th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Texas offense vs Navy defense | 51.6%13th | 47.3%118th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNavy offense vs North Texas defense | 41.8%87th | 42.6%50th |
| Explosive play rateNorth Texas offense vs Navy defense | 9.1%16th | 6.7%67th |
| Explosive play rateNavy offense vs North Texas defense | 7.8%100th | 6.4%81st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.2%25th-highest | 24.9%136th-highest |
On 3rd down North Texas converts 51.6% (13th) against a Navy defense allowing 47.3% (118th).
On 3rd down Navy converts 42.6% (50th) against a North Texas defense allowing 41.8% (87th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | North Texas | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Neal Brown | Brian Newberry |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 4–2 | 28–16 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 76–53 | 28–16 |
| Offensive coordinator | Mike Bloesch | Drew Cronic |
| Defensive coordinator | Bradley Dale Peveto / Matt Powledge | Ricky Brown / Eric Lewis |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: North Texas won 1 and Navy 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Navy 17, North Texas 31 North Texas won | ||
| Oct 7, 2023 | North Texas 24, Navy 27 Navy won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
North Texas Mean Green
- North Texas Mean Green team stats
- Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green (Oct 29)
- Charlotte 49ers 10, North Texas Mean Green 50 (Oct 10)
- North Texas Mean Green 45, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 44 (Oct 1)
- Houston Baptist Huskies 14, North Texas Mean Green 63 (Sep 26)
Navy Midshipmen
- Navy Midshipmen team stats
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen (Oct 31)
- Navy Midshipmen 34, UTSA Roadrunners 38 (Oct 17)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26, Navy Midshipmen 34 (Oct 10)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
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- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
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- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
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