Home › Game previews › NCAAF › October 2026 › North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels

NCAAF · October 10, 2026

North Dakota State Bison vs UNLV Rebels Final — October 10, 2026

North Dakota State Bison

4-0

Quarterback Nathan Hayes

FINAL

UNLV Rebels

3-2

Quarterback Jackson Arnold

Saturday, October 10 · 7:00 PM ET

NDSUOffense2026 regular season to dateUNLV

46th+0.130

EPA/play

+0.04077th

27th50.9%

Success %

42.2%114th

37th32.5

PPG

25.073rd

NDSUDefenseUNLV

21st−0.091

EPA/play allowed

−0.00446th

43rd44.6%

Success % allowed

43.4%31st

5th12.2

Opp PPG

23.654th

NDSURecent formUNLV

Wvs Jacksonville State 33-7Wvs Fordham 38-0W@ Air Force 38-32W@ Sacramento State 31-10Wvs Wyoming 28-0

Resultsoldest to newest

Lvs Memphis 21-27W@ Hawai'i 21-6L@ North Texas 6-44W@ Akron 38-10Wvs California 39-31

5-0

Record

3-2

NDSUHome and roadseason to dateUNLV

3-0

Home record

1-1

2-0

Road record

2-1

NDSULast 10 gamesUNLV

Game by game

5-0

Last 5

3-2

+119

Net points

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

NDSURest & travelUNLV

7 days

Days of rest

7 days

1,204 mi1,938 km

Travel to the game

Home

−2 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venueindoors

Allegiant Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

North Dakota State (4-0) visited UNLV (3-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:00 PM ET.

North Dakota State has the 46th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UNLV has the 77th-ranked offense and the 46th-ranked defense. When North Dakota State has the ball, a 46th-ranked offense (+0.130 EPA per play) meets a 46th-ranked defense (−0.004 allowed); when UNLV has it, a 77th-ranked offense (+0.040) meets a 21st-ranked defense (−0.091 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the North Dakota State offense is at 50.9% (27th) and the UNLV offense at 42.2% (114th). North Dakota State scores 32.5 points per game (37th) and allows 12.2 (5th); UNLV scores 25.0 (73rd) and allows 23.6 (54th).

North Dakota State is 5-0; its last game was a 28-0 win over Wyoming. UNLV is 3-2; its last game was a 39-31 win over California.

North Dakota State closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with UNLV getting the points at home. The spread opened at North Dakota State -4. The total closed at 47.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (North Dakota State -137, UNLV +113) prices North Dakota State at 55% and UNLV at 45%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

North Dakota State Bison 7, UNLV Rebels 13

UNLV Rebels won by 6.

Against the closing spread (UNLV Rebels +2.5): UNLV Rebels covered.
Combined score 20 vs the closing total of 47.5: Under.
UNLV Rebels closed at +113 on the moneyline (a 45% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

55%Market at the close45%

North Dakota State BisonUNLV Rebels

60%Market at the open40%

From open to close the market moved 5 points toward UNLV Rebels.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (North Dakota State Bison 55%, UNLV Rebels 45%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q1 9:39 — North Dakota State Bison ball, 2nd & 10 at NDSU 25Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass intercepted by #42 A.Porter at NDSU23 #42 A.Porter return 23 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:39 #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (…UNLV Rebels 47% → 64% (+17 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 13:24 — UNLV Rebels ball, 2nd & 10 at NDSU 49Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass intercepted by #25 R.James at NDSU37 #25 R.James return 17 yards to the UNLV46 (#65 A.Robinson)North Dakota State Bison 27% → 38% (+11 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 6:10 — North Dakota State Bison ball, 2nd & 20 at UNLV 21Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #8 C.Kiel caught at UNLV00, for 21 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:10, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt go…North Dakota State Bison 36% → 49% (+12 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 14:10 — North Dakota State Bison ball, 4th & 1 at NDSU 18#5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU18 (#23 C.Santee; #8 K.Ka'aihue), TURNOVER ON DOWNSUNLV Rebels 65% → 78% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Q4 7:44 — North Dakota State Bison ball, 2nd & 11 at UNLV 44Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #26 B.Wavrunek caught at UNLV48, for 3 yards loss to the UNLV47 (#4 T.Nkuba)UNLV Rebels 72% → 85% (+13 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Game DNA

North Dakota State	Points added	UNLV
-4.6	Passingdropbacks	-1.9
-5.6	Rushingdesigned runs	+0.2
+10.6	Explosive plays4 plays · 1 plays	+2.1
-11.3	Turnovers3 giveaways · 1 giveaways	-5.3
-3.8	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	-5.0
-3.9	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	-5.4
-3.9	Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 0 of 2	-2.2
-22.6	All plays	-17.6

Bar left: North Dakota State gainedBar right: UNLV gained

The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.5 points to North Dakota State Bison. The final margin was 6.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

Line review

North Dakota State Bison closed as the market favourite at 55% and lost.

The line moved toward UNLV Rebels before kickoff, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 1.5

OpenUNLV +4 (-110)
North Dakota State -4 (-110)

CloseUNLV +2.5 (-107)
North Dakota State -2.5 (-115)

Totaldown 3

Open50.5 (o -105 / u -115)

Close47.5 (o -112 / u -110)

Moneyline

OpenNorth Dakota State -170 60%
UNLV +141 40%

CloseNorth Dakota State -137 55%
UNLV +113 45%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Players to watch

North Dakota State

QB · Nathan Hayes

Attempts116
Completion %64.7%88th
Passing yards995113th
Yards per attempt8.655th
TD–INT7–2

Leading rusher (RB) · DJ Scott

Rushing yards29888th
Season line70 carries, 298 yds, 4 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Jackson Williams

Receiving yards35845th
Season line22 catches, 358 yds, 1 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Donovan Woolen

Tackles33115th

UNLV

QB · Jackson Arnold

Attempts133
Completion %59.4%165th
Passing yards1,06895th
Yards per attempt8.090th
TD–INT8–0

Leading rusher (RB) · Jai'Den Thomas

Rushing yards38341st
Season line73 carries, 383 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Taz Reddicks

Receiving yards272102nd
Season line14 catches, 272 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (S) · Jake Pope

Tackles3674th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	North Dakota State	UNLV
Early-down success rateNorth Dakota State offense vs UNLV defense	48.3%18th	40.3%33rd
Early-down success rateUNLV offense vs North Dakota State defense	40.7%40th	38.5%118th
3rd-down conversion rateNorth Dakota State offense vs UNLV defense	45.7%37th	38.9%60th
3rd-down conversion rateUNLV offense vs North Dakota State defense	35.6%37th	39.1%79th
Explosive play rateNorth Dakota State offense vs UNLV defense	8.2%39th	8.2%105th
Explosive play rateUNLV offense vs North Dakota State defense	5.0%22nd	7.0%62nd
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	40.3%123rd-highest	46.7%95th-highest

On 3rd down North Dakota State converts 45.7% (37th) against a UNLV defense allowing 38.9% (60th).

On 3rd down UNLV converts 39.1% (79th) against a North Dakota State defense allowing 35.6% (37th).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	North Dakota State	UNLV
Head coach	Tim Polasek	Dan Mullen
Tenureat this school	3rd season	2nd season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	31–3	13–6
Career recordas an FBS head coach	5–0	116–67
Offensive coordinator	Dan Larson	Corey Dennis
Defensive coordinator	Grant Olson	Paul Guenther

Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.

Teams