California Golden Bears vs UNLV Rebels Final — October 3, 2026
CALOffense2026 regular season to dateUNLV
CALDefenseUNLVCALLast 10 gamesUNLVRest & travelrest and travel
CALRest & travelUNLVAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
California (1-2) visited UNLV (2-2) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
California has the 104th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 88th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UNLV has the 81st-ranked offense and the 31st-ranked defense. When California has the ball, a 104th-ranked offense (−0.126 EPA per play) meets a 31st-ranked defense (−0.112 allowed); when UNLV has it, a 81st-ranked offense (−0.011) meets a 88th-ranked defense (+0.076 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the California offense is at 41.5% (84th) and the UNLV offense at 42.8% (73rd). California scores 18.3 points per game (103rd) and allows 29.0 (77th); UNLV scores 21.5 (89th) and allows 21.8 (44th).
UNLV is 2-2; its last game was a 38-10 win over Akron.
UNLV closed as a 1.5-point favorite at home against California. The spread opened with California favored by 1.5. The total closed at 52.5, down from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (California -105, UNLV -117) prices California at 49% and UNLV at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
California Golden Bears 31, UNLV Rebels 39
UNLV Rebels won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (UNLV Rebels -1.5): UNLV Rebels covered.
- Combined score 70 vs the closing total of 52.5: Over.
- UNLV Rebels closed at -117 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward UNLV Rebels.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (California Golden Bears 49%, UNLV Rebels 51%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 11:30 — California Golden Bears ball, 1st & 10 at CAL 9Shotgun #3 J.Sagapolutele pass complete short right to #22 T.Purcell caught at CAL25, for 91 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:30, 1ST DOWN #91 C.Meyer kic…California Golden Bears 46% → 62% (+16 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:31 — UNLV Rebels ball, 3rd & 8 at UNLV 30Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep right to #6 K.McGee caught at CAL35, for 70 yards to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:31, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attemp…UNLV Rebels 34% → 51% (+17 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:34 — California Golden Bears ball, 2nd & 7 at UNLV 30Shotgun #3 J.Sagapolutele pass intercepted by #5 Q.Keyes at UNLV28 #5 Q.Keyes return 44 yards to the CAL28 (#81 T.Sams)UNLV Rebels 45% → 64% (+20 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:38 — California Golden Bears ball, 4th & 2 at UNLV 23#20 A.Emory rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNLV24 (#94 L.Conti; #44 K.Togafau), TURNOVER ON DOWNSCalifornia Golden Bears 9% → 25% (+17 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 12:18 — UNLV Rebels ball, 1st & 10 at UNLV 34Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete deep right to #2 T.Reddicks thrown to CAL25UNLV Rebels 76% → 93% (+17 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
UNLV Rebels won after falling as low as 31% (Q1 8:10).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, UNLV Rebels would win 78% of the time (California Golden Bears 22%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured UNLV Rebels. Here is where that came from.
| California | Points added | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| -19.1 | Passingdropbacks | -13.9 |
| -6.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.6 |
| +24.7 | Explosive plays8 plays · 4 plays | +18.1 |
| -8.7 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.4 |
| -1.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.1 |
| -0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.7 |
| +0.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 2 of 3 | +5.1 |
| -11.6 | All plays | +2.2 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 6.6 points to California Golden Bears. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
UNLV Rebels closed as the market favourite at 51% and won.
The line moved toward UNLV Rebels before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
California -1.5 (-100)
California +1.5 (-115)
UNLV -107 49%
UNLV -117 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts137
- Completion %64.2%100th
- Passing yards98572nd
- Yards per attempt7.2135th
- TD–INT7–4
- Rushing yards33640th
- Season line73 carries, 336 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards25088th
- Season line17 catches, 250 yds
- Tackles27121st
- Attempts111
- Completion %61.3%139th
- Passing yards89196th
- Yards per attempt8.089th
- TD–INT5–0
- Rushing yards33739th
- Season line57 carries, 337 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards236109th
- Season line12 catches, 236 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles28100th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | California | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCalifornia offense vs UNLV defense | 41.3%45th | 41.0%87th |
| Early-down success rateUNLV offense vs California defense | 38.3%53rd | 40.4%56th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCalifornia offense vs UNLV defense | 40.0%67th | 43.4%95th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUNLV offense vs California defense | 45.2%106th | 39.6%71st |
| Explosive play rateCalifornia offense vs UNLV defense | 4.5%115th | 7.3%86th |
| Explosive play rateUNLV offense vs California defense | 10.6%132nd | 7.1%67th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.7%27th-highest | 47.5%84th-highest |
On 3rd down California converts 40.0% (67th) against a UNLV defense allowing 43.4% (95th).
On 3rd down UNLV converts 39.6% (71st) against a California defense allowing 45.2% (106th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | California | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tosh Lupoi | Dan Mullen |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–2 | 12–6 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 2–2 | 115–67 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jordan Somerville | Corey Dennis |
| Defensive coordinator | Da'Von Brown / Michael Hutchings | Paul Guenther |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: California won 1 and UNLV 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2024 bowl | California 13, UNLV 24 UNLV won | ||
| Sep 10, 2022 | UNLV 14, California 20 California won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
California Golden Bears
- California Golden Bears team stats
- California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack (Oct 31)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 41, California Golden Bears 7 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
UNLV Rebels
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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