Charlotte 49ers vs North Texas Mean Green Final — October 10, 2026
CLTOffense2026 regular season to dateUNT
CLTDefenseUNTCLTRecent formUNTCLTHome and roadseason to dateUNTCLTLast 10 gamesUNTRest & travelrest and travel
CLTRest & travelUNTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Charlotte (0-4) visited North Texas (2-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Charlotte has the 138th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 88th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, North Texas has the 15th-ranked offense and the 107th-ranked defense. When Charlotte has the ball, a 138th-ranked offense (−0.358 EPA per play) meets a 107th-ranked defense (+0.178 allowed); when North Texas has it, a 15th-ranked offense (+0.272) meets a 88th-ranked defense (+0.107 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Charlotte offense is at 34.1% (138th) and the North Texas offense at 48.6% (52nd). Charlotte scores 11.2 points per game (132nd) and allows 40.0 (131st); North Texas scores 35.0 (24th) and allows 37.8 (121st).
Charlotte is 0-5 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 59-8 loss to Memphis. North Texas is 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 45-44 win over Tulsa.
North Texas closed as a 27.5-point favorite at home against Charlotte. The spread opened at North Texas -24.5. The total closed at 57.5, down from 62.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Charlotte +1400, North Texas -5000) prices Charlotte at 6% and North Texas at 94%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Charlotte 49ers 10, North Texas Mean Green 50
North Texas Mean Green won by 40.
- Against the closing spread (North Texas Mean Green -27.5): North Texas Mean Green covered.
- Combined score 60 vs the closing total of 57.5: Over.
- North Texas Mean Green closed at -5000 on the moneyline (a 94% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Charlotte 49ers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Charlotte 49ers 6%, North Texas Mean Green 94%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Game DNA
| Charlotte | Points added | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| -11.0 | Passingdropbacks | -4.1 |
| +4.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +6.5 |
| +13.8 | Explosive plays2 plays · 6 plays | +9.8 |
| -9.5 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.5 |
| +0.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -5.7 |
| +0.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 0 · 3 of 5 | +8.9 |
| -0.4 | All plays | +13.9 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 9.5 points to North Texas Mean Green. The final margin was 40.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
North Texas Mean Green closed as the market favourite at 94% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Charlotte +24.5 (-118)
Charlotte +27.5 (-110)
North Texas -4737 95%
North Texas -5000 94%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts127
- Completion %62.2%123rd
- Passing yards802174th
- Yards per attempt6.3203rd
- TD–INT3–7
- Rushing yards201188th
- Season line44 carries, 201 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards249133rd
- Season line26 catches, 249 yds
- Tackles4227th
- Attempts168
- Completion %71.4%16th
- Passing yards1,51014th
- Yards per attempt9.039th
- TD–INT10–4
- Rushing yards5829th
- Season line84 carries, 582 yds, 8 TD
- Receiving yards33160th
- Season line24 catches, 331 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4227th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Charlotte | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCharlotte offense vs North Texas defense | 35.9%131st | 48.9%121st |
| Early-down success rateNorth Texas offense vs Charlotte defense | 50.5%134th | 41.5%88th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCharlotte offense vs North Texas defense | 16.2%138th | 42.6%94th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorth Texas offense vs Charlotte defense | 42.5%92nd | 54.5%5th |
| Explosive play rateCharlotte offense vs North Texas defense | 3.5%133rd | 7.6%92nd |
| Explosive play rateNorth Texas offense vs Charlotte defense | 6.3%57th | 8.5%31st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 57.2%17th-highest | 53.0%50th-highest |
On 3rd down Charlotte converts 16.2% (138th) against a North Texas defense allowing 42.6% (94th).
On 3rd down North Texas converts 54.5% (5th) against a Charlotte defense allowing 42.5% (92nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Charlotte | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tim Albin | Neal Brown |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 1–16 | 3–2 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 34–35 | 75–53 |
| Offensive coordinator | Todd Fitch | Mike Bloesch |
| Defensive coordinator | Nate Faanes | Bradley Dale Peveto / Matt Powledge |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Charlotte won 0 and North Texas 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2025 | North Texas 54, Charlotte 20 North Texas won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Charlotte 49ers
- Charlotte 49ers team stats
- Tulane Green Wave at Charlotte 49ers (Oct 30)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Charlotte 49ers 9, Ole Miss Rebels 41 (Sep 12)
North Texas Mean Green
- North Texas Mean Green team stats
- Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green (Oct 29)
- North Texas Mean Green 49, Navy Midshipmen 39 (Oct 24)
- North Texas Mean Green 45, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 44 (Oct 1)
- Houston Baptist Huskies 14, North Texas Mean Green 63 (Sep 26)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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