Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers Final — November 8, 2026
DENStarting quarterbacksexpected startersCAR
DENOffense2026 regular season to dateCARDENDefenseCARDENRecent formCARDENHome and roadseason to dateCARInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DENRest & travelCARDENKey injuriesCARAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Broncos (6-2) visited the Panthers (3-4) at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 9.
The Broncos have the 20th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers have the 12th-ranked offense and the 21st-ranked defense. When the Broncos have the ball, a 20th-ranked offense (−0.022 EPA per play) meets a 21st-ranked defense (+0.029 allowed); when the Panthers have it, a 12th-ranked offense (+0.031) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.023 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Broncos offense is at 38.5% (29th) and the Panthers offense at 42.2% (18th). Through the air, the Broncos average −0.003 EPA per dropback (22nd) against a Panthers pass defense ranked 16th; the Panthers average +0.071 (16th) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 9th. The Broncos score 21.5 points per game (22nd) and allow 20.6 (11th); the Panthers score 25.4 (9th) and allow 27.6 (28th).
Over the last five games, the Broncos rank 17th on offense and 9th on defense by EPA per play; the Panthers rank 18th and 24th.
Bryce Young has a 42.9% success rate (25th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bo Nix's 37.7% (33rd). Per dropback, Young is at +0.060 EPA to Nix's −0.015, with 13 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions to Nix's 9 and 3.
The Broncos are 6-2 and 6-2 against the spread; their last game was a 28-24 win over the Chiefs. The Panthers are 3-4 and 3-4 against the spread; their last game was a 27-19 loss to the Packers.
The Broncos closed as 3-point road favorites, with the Panthers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Broncos -2.5. The total closed 44.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Broncos -161, Panthers +135) prices the Broncos at 59% and the Panthers at 41%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21
Denver Broncos won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Carolina Panthers +3): Denver Broncos covered.
- Combined score 47 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- Denver Broncos closed at -161 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Denver Broncos.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Denver Broncos 59%, Carolina Panthers 41%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 11:36 — Carolina Panthers ball, 3rd & 9 at DEN 15(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 88-D.Waller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Carolina Panthers 30% → 44% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:35 — Carolina Panthers ball, 1st & 1 at DEN 173-S.Forsythe reported in as eligDenver Broncos 27% → 55% (+28 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:01 — Denver Broncos ball, 3rd & 6 at CAR 31(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at CAR 19 for 12 yards (35-M.Wilson).Denver Broncos 63% → 72% (+9 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:49 — Carolina Panthers ball, 1st & 10 at CAR 44(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to DEN 36 for 20 yards (34-J.Skinner).Carolina Panthers 19% → 27% (+8 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:24 — Carolina Panthers ball, 1st & 10 at DEN 36(No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and theDenver Broncos 73% → 96% (+23 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Denver Broncos won after falling as low as 27% (Q3 1:35).
Game DNA
| Broncos | Points added | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| +4.3 | Passingdropbacks | -2.8 |
| -7.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.9 |
| +8.0 | Explosive plays4 plays · 10 plays | +17.5 |
| -4.4 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -10.3 |
| +3.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -1.5 |
| +7.8 | Penalties8 for 50 yds · 13 for 119 yds | -1.0 |
| +2.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 4 | +6.3 |
| +14.1 | All plays | +5.2 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 9.5 points to Carolina Panthers. The final margin was 5.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Denver Broncos closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.
The line moved toward Denver Broncos before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Broncos -2.5 (-115)
Broncos -3 (-111)
Panthers +125 43%
Panthers +135 41%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Jaylen Waddle has 315 receiving yards for the Broncos (39th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.7%. J.K. Dobbins has 306 rushing yards on 94 carries (29th of 42 qualified running backs). Tetairoa McMillan has 569 receiving yards for the Panthers (11th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.4%. Chuba Hubbard has 540 rushing yards on 118 carries (13th of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries94
- Rush yards30629th
- Yards per carry3.337th
- EPA per rush−0.19335th
- Rush success rate28.7%40th
- Targets / catches51 / 29
- Receiving yards31539th
- Target share22.7%25th
- Yards per target6.265th
- EPA per target+0.04360th
- Targets / catches25 / 13
- Receiving yards13635th
- Target share11.1%31st
- Yards per target5.434th
- EPA per target−0.08132nd
- Carries118
- Rush yards54013th
- Yards per carry4.614th
- EPA per rush+0.0676th
- Rush success rate46.6%6th
- Targets / catches65 / 42
- Receiving yards56911th
- Target share26.4%13th
- Yards per target8.828th
- EPA per target+0.36430th
- Targets / catches24 / 17
- Receiving yards15533rd
- Target share9.8%36th
- Yards per target6.524th
- EPA per target+0.18024th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs Panthers defense | 38.3%27th | 43.9%20th |
| Early-down success ratePanthers offense vs Broncos defense | 38.8%3rd | 42.2%19th |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Panthers defense | +0.04114th | +0.05324th |
| Early-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Broncos defense | +0.01013th | +0.1015th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs Panthers defense | 30.0%32nd | 46.4%28th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePanthers offense vs Broncos defense | 42.5%23rd | 38.5%19th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs Panthers defense | −0.38832nd | +0.00416th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Broncos defense | −0.1708th | −0.13923rd |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs Panthers defense | 68.2%8th | 80.0%31st |
| Red-zone TD ratePanthers offense vs Broncos defense | 48.0%8th | 66.7%11th |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs Panthers defense | 39.7%20th | 50.0%26th |
| Red-zone success ratePanthers offense vs Broncos defense | 35.9%8th | 49.3%6th |
On early downs the Broncos succeed on 38.3% of plays (27th) against a Panthers defense that allows 43.9% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 30.0% (32nd) against a defense allowing 46.4% (28th). On early downs the Panthers succeed on 42.2% of plays (19th) against a Broncos defense that allows 38.8% (3rd); on 3rd down they convert 38.5% (19th) against a defense allowing 42.5% (23rd). The Broncos score touchdowns on 68.2% of red-zone trips (8th). The Panthers score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (11th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean Payton | Dave Canales |
| Offensive coordinator | Davis Webb | Brad Idzik |
| Defensive coordinator | Vance Joseph | Ejiro Evero |
| Offense tendencies | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.8%15th-highest | 3.3%4th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 60.0%16th-highest | 66.0%3rd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 53.2%19th-highest | 62.9%2nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 65.4%12th-highest | 66.0%11th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 5.8%14th-highest | 6.1%13th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.019th-slowest | 28.632nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 11.2%29th | 17.1%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.8%23rd | 8.9%16th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 7.3%23rd | 10.3%11th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 3.7%5th | 7.5%23rd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.11%5th | 1.73%15th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 56.032nd-most | 65.64th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 9 |
| Defense | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 6.8%13th | 4.1%29th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 12.7%7th | 11.3%3rd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 7.0%7th | 5.4%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 10.7%24th | 10.4%22nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.83%18th | 1.77%19th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 21.8%2nd | 10.8%30th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 9.7%1st | 16.5%22nd |
The Broncos run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.8% pass rate over expected, 15th-highest), while the Panthers sit at 3.3% (4th-highest). In neutral situations the Broncos take 33.0 seconds between snaps and the Panthers 28.6, so the Panthers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Broncos have gone for it 3 of 12 times and the Panthers 6 of 9.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Broncos won 4 and the Panthers 1. In the most recent meeting (October 27, 2024), the Broncos won 28-14; the Panthers averaged −0.146 EPA per play; the Broncos averaged +0.035 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | Panthers 14, Broncos 28 Broncos won | Broncos -13 Broncos covered | 40.5 over | Panthers −0.146 · Broncos +0.035 |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Broncos 10, Panthers 23 Panthers won | Broncos -1 Panthers covered | 36.5 under | Panthers +0.083 · Broncos −0.267 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Broncos 32, Panthers 27 Broncos won | Panthers -4 Broncos covered | 46 over | Panthers +0.059 · Broncos +0.147 |
| Sep 8, 2016 | Panthers 20, Broncos 21 Broncos won | Panthers -3 Broncos covered | 40.5 over | Panthers +0.039 · Broncos +0.003 |
| Feb 7, 2016 playoffs | Panthers 10, Broncos 24 Broncos won | Panthers -4.5 Broncos covered | 43 under | Panthers −0.264 · Broncos −0.362 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Denver Broncos 28 (Nov 1)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (Oct 15)
Carolina Panthers
- Carolina Panthers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (Nov 15)
- Carolina Panthers 19, Green Bay Packers 27 (Oct 29)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
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