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NHL · October 6, 2026

Nashville Predators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Final — October 6, 2026

Nashville Predators

1-1-0

Goalie Juuse Saros Likely

FINAL

Toronto Maple Leafs

1-2-0

Goalie Anthony Stolarz Likely

Tuesday, October 6 · 7:10 PM ET

NSHStarting goaliesTOR

This season

Starts

.933

Sv%

.963

.857

HDSv%

.800

+1.6

GSAx

+1.9

Last season

Starts

.894

Sv%

.893

.799

HDSv%

.871

−11.0

GSAx

−5.3

NSHOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TOR

21st3.01

GF/G

3.0916th

11th8.39

PP GF/60

6.9021st

NSHDefenseTOR

25th3.28

GA/G

3.6531st

5th6.27

PK GA/60

6.386th

NSHTeamTOR

22nd52.4%

Pts%

47.6%28th

22nd48.5%

xGF%

45.5%29th

14th50.1%

CF%

44.8%32nd

16th49.0%

HDCF%

45.2%28th

NSH5-on-5TOR

18th2.47

xGF/60

2.2828th

23rd2.63

xGA/60

2.7427th

26th8.7%

Sh%

10.3%8th

18th90.5%

Sv%

90.0%22nd

19th114.8

CF/60 (both)

117.110th

20th−0.05

GAx/G

+0.207th

16th−0.01

GSAx/G

−0.1124th

23rd10.0%

Sh%

10.9%10th

14th89.7%

Sv%

89.7%15th

28th43.2%

xGF% (L20)

40.5%31st

NSHSpecial teamsTOR

21st7.24

PP xG/60

7.3319th

18th77.4

PP FF/60

73.325th

16th4.7

PP min/G

4.131st

14th7.50

PK xGA/60

8.7831st

26th5.0

PK min/G

4.819th

NSHRecent formTOR

Lvs MIN 1-3Wvs DAL 2-1

Resultsoldest to newest

Lvs MTL 2-3Wvs NYI 2-1Lvs OTT 2-3

Game by game

1-1-0

Record

1-2-0

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

NSHRest & travelTOR

3 days

Days of rest

3 days

648 mi1,044 km

Travel to the game

Home

+1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

NSHKey injuriesTOR

None listed

Players out or limited

Max Domi CIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 6, 9:40 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Predators (1-1-0) visited the Maple Leafs (1-2-0) on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Predators scored 3.01 goals per game (21st of 32) and allowed 3.28 (25th). The Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Predators earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Maple Leafs 47.6% (28th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Predators 48.5% (22nd), Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Predators 50.1% (14th), Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Predators 49.0% (16th), Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Predators +138, Maple Leafs -165) prices the Predators at 40% and the Maple Leafs at 60%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5

Toronto Maple Leafs won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5): Nashville Predators covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
Toronto Maple Leafs closed at -165 on the moneyline (a 60% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Nashville Predators 4
Toronto Maple Leafs 5

Decided

In overtime

Toronto Maple Leafs won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

40%Market at the close60%

Nashville PredatorsToronto Maple Leafs

42%Market at the open58%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Toronto Maple Leafs.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Nashville Predators 41%, Toronto Maple Leafs 59%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 6:58 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (3-2)Toronto Maple Leafs 21% → 38% (+18 pts)
3rd 8:54 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (4-4)Toronto Maple Leafs 22% → 55% (+33 pts)
OT 4:46 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (4-5)Toronto Maple Leafs 50% → 100% (+50 pts)

Toronto Maple Leafs won after falling as low as 10% (2nd 4:56).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

38%NSH

Share of G&W replays won

62%TOR

2.6

Expected goals

3.4

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Toronto Maple Leafs won 62% of G&W replays (Nashville Predators 38%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Toronto Maple Leafs. Here is where that came from.

Predators	Goals	Maple Leafs
1.8	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.3
0.8	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.1
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.0
2.6	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.4
0.2	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.9
0.6	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.4
+1.2	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.6
-0.6	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Juuse Saros 32/37 · Anthony Stolarz 21/25	-1.2

Bar left: Predators gainedBar right: Maple Leafs gained

How the margin was built, from Toronto Maple Leafs's side:

Chances +1.6Finishing & goaltending -0.6Toronto Maple Leafs by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Jessica's HandicapNashville Predators ML +1442.00uLOSS -2.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Toronto Maple Leafs closed as the market favourite at 60% and won.

The line moved toward Toronto Maple Leafs before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenMaple Leafs -1.5 (+152)
Predators +1.5 (-189)

CloseMaple Leafs -1.5 (+148)
Predators +1.5 (-188)

Totalno move

Open5.5 (o -129 / u +104)

Close5.5 (o -137 / u +112)

Moneyline

OpenPredators +130 42%
Maple Leafs -155 58%

ClosePredators +138 40%
Maple Leafs -165 60%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Predators won 6 and the Maple Leafs 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Dec 20, 2025	Maple Leafs 3, Predators 5 Predators won		6 over
Oct 14, 2025	Predators 4, Maple Leafs 7 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -175 favorite won	6.5 over
Mar 22, 2025	Maple Leafs 2, Predators 5 Predators won	Maple Leafs -170 underdog won	5.5 over
Dec 4, 2024	Predators 2, Maple Leafs 3 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -141 favorite won	6 under
Dec 9, 2023	Predators 0, Maple Leafs 4 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -161 favorite won	6.5 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams