Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers Final — October 3, 2026
AUBOffense2026 regular season to dateTENN
AUBDefenseTENNAUBLast 10 gamesTENNRest & travelrest and travel
AUBRest & travelTENNAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Auburn (3-1) visited Tennessee (2-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET.
Auburn has the 65th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 48th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Tennessee has the 48th-ranked offense and the 41st-ranked defense. When Auburn has the ball, a 65th-ranked offense (+0.024 EPA per play) meets a 41st-ranked defense (−0.080 allowed); when Tennessee has it, a 48th-ranked offense (+0.073) meets a 48th-ranked defense (−0.050 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Auburn offense is at 45.1% (46th) and the Tennessee offense at 46.6% (33rd). Auburn scores 30.0 points per game (50th) and allows 20.8 (39th); Tennessee scores 34.7 (22nd) and allows 17.7 (27th).
Auburn is 3-1 and 1-3 against the spread; its last game was a 21-15 win over Vanderbilt.
Tennessee closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against Auburn. The spread opened at Tennessee -7.5. The total closed at 54.5, down from 56.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Auburn +190, Tennessee -235) prices Auburn at 33% and Tennessee at 67%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Auburn Tigers 14, Tennessee Volunteers 24
Tennessee Volunteers won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Tennessee Volunteers -6.5): Tennessee Volunteers covered.
- Combined score 38 vs the closing total of 54.5: Under.
- Tennessee Volunteers closed at -235 on the moneyline (a 67% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Auburn Tigers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Auburn Tigers 33%, Tennessee Volunteers 67%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 14:46 — Auburn Tigers ball, 4th & 6 at AUB 5#14 H.Kaak punt 37 yards to the AUBURN42 #17 D.Morris return 0 yards to the AUBURN42 (#59 H.Powell; #6 D.Riddick)Auburn Tigers 24% → 36% (+11 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:01 — Tennessee Volunteers ball, 1st & 10 at TENN 11No Huddle-Shotgun #11 F.Brandon pass intercepted by #17 X.Atkins at TENN20 #17 X.Atkins return 1 yard to the TENN19, out of bounds at TENN19Auburn Tigers 29% → 40% (+11 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:48 — Auburn Tigers ball, 3rd & 7 at TENN 7Shotgun #17 B.Brown rush right for 7 yards gain to the TENN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:48 #38 A.McPherson kick attempt good (H: #14 H.Kaak, LS: #59 H.Powell)Auburn Tigers 39% → 50% (+11 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:25 — Auburn Tigers ball, 2nd & 16 at TENN 45Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass intercepted by #10 D.Lane at TENN24 QB hurried by #2 X.Gilliam and #5 D.Hobbs #10 D.Lane return 32 yards to the AUBURN44 (#55 K.McManus…Tennessee Volunteers 69% → 80% (+11 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:34 — Auburn Tigers ball, 4th & 1 at AUB 24#29 O.Mabson II rush left for 0 yards to the AUBURN24 (#22 J.Telander; #19 N.Robinson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSTennessee Volunteers 76% → 88% (+12 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Tennessee Volunteers would win 88% of the time (Auburn Tigers 12%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Tennessee Volunteers. Here is where that came from.
| Auburn | Points added | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| -6.1 | Passingdropbacks | -10.3 |
| -3.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.9 |
| +7.4 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +10.9 |
| -7.3 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -6.7 |
| -2.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.3 |
| -7.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.6 |
| +3.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 1 of 2 | +0.3 |
| -14.9 | All plays | -8.0 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 5.2 points to Tennessee Volunteers. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Tennessee Volunteers closed as the market favourite at 67% and won.
The line moved toward Auburn Tigers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Auburn +7.5 (-110)
Auburn +6.5 (-112)
Tennessee -302 72%
Tennessee -235 67%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts125
- Completion %64.8%94th
- Passing yards89394th
- Yards per attempt7.1142nd
- TD–INT6–5
- Rushing yards23796th
- Season line62 carries, 237 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards26871st
- Season line22 catches, 268 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles3432nd
- Attempts93
- Completion %62.4%119th
- Passing yards697167th
- Yards per attempt7.5111th
- TD–INT7–0
- Rushing yards32046th
- Season line54 carries, 320 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards26179th
- Season line14 catches, 261 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles27121st
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Auburn | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateAuburn offense vs Tennessee defense | 40.1%62nd | 43.0%105th |
| Early-down success rateTennessee offense vs Auburn defense | 40.0%75th | 41.8%44th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateAuburn offense vs Tennessee defense | 47.4%29th | 36.4%47th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTennessee offense vs Auburn defense | 34.9%37th | 40.5%66th |
| Explosive play rateAuburn offense vs Tennessee defense | 7.8%46th | 3.7%4th |
| Explosive play rateTennessee offense vs Auburn defense | 6.2%55th | 4.6%113th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.5%47th-highest | 43.6%108th-highest |
On 3rd down Auburn converts 47.4% (29th) against a Tennessee defense allowing 36.4% (47th).
On 3rd down Tennessee converts 40.5% (66th) against a Auburn defense allowing 34.9% (37th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Auburn | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Alex Golesh | Josh Heupel |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 3–1 | 48–21 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 26–16 | 76–29 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kodi Burns / Joel Gordon | Joey Halzle |
| Defensive coordinator | D.J. Durkin | Jim Knowles |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Teams
Auburn Tigers
- Auburn Tigers team stats
- Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (Oct 31)
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Auburn Tigers 27, Georgia Bulldogs 24 (Oct 17)
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
Tennessee Volunteers
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
- Memphis Tigers 59, Charlotte 49ers 8 (Oct 3)
- Navy Midshipmen 9, Air Force Falcons 14 (Oct 3)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Iowa State Cyclones 45 (Oct 3)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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