Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Northern Illinois Huskies Final — October 24, 2026
HAWOffense2026 regular season to dateNIU
HAWDefenseNIUHAWLast 10 gamesNIURest & travelrest and travel
HAWRest & travelNIUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Hawai'i (1-6) visited Northern Illinois (0-5) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET.
Hawai'i has the 111th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 96th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has the 70th-ranked offense and the 135th-ranked defense. When Hawai'i has the ball, a 111th-ranked offense (−0.058 EPA per play) meets a 135th-ranked defense (+0.328 allowed); when Northern Illinois has it, a 70th-ranked offense (+0.049) meets a 96th-ranked defense (+0.144 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Hawai'i offense is at 42.7% (109th) and the Northern Illinois offense at 47.2% (66th). Hawai'i scores 15.7 points per game (125th) and allows 25.0 (64th); Northern Illinois scores 12.2 (135th) and allows 37.2 (127th).
Northern Illinois is 0-6 and 1-5 against the spread; its last game was a 41-23 loss to Wyoming.
Hawai'i closed as a 3-point road favorite, with Northern Illinois getting the points at home. The spread opened at Hawai'i -6.5. The total closed at 49.5, up from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hawai'i -150, Northern Illinois +127) prices Hawai'i at 58% and Northern Illinois at 42%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 56, Northern Illinois Huskies 21
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won by 35.
- Against the closing spread (Northern Illinois Huskies +3): Hawaii Rainbow Warriors covered.
- Combined score 77 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors closed at -150 on the moneyline (a 58% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 8 points toward Northern Illinois Huskies.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 58%, Northern Illinois Huskies 42%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:49 — Northern Illinois Huskies ball, 1st & 10 at HAW 49Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete deep left to #1 D.Rogers caught at HAW03, for 49 yards to the HAW00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:49, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY HAW Holding decl…Northern Illinois Huskies 33% → 43% (+10 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:57 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 2nd & 5 at HAW 30Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep right to #2 A.Harris caught at NIU25, for 46 yards to the NIU24 (#5 Y.Falke), 1ST DOWNHawaii Rainbow Warriors 57% → 65% (+8 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 13:46 — Northern Illinois Huskies ball, 2nd & 7 at HAW 25Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete deep left to #1 D.Rogers caught at HAW01, for 25 yards to the HAW00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:46, 1ST DOWN #33 J.Schlenhardt kick at…Northern Illinois Huskies 35% → 44% (+9 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:17 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 1st & 10 at NIU 33Shotgun #1 D.Rice rush middle for 33 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17, 1ST DOWN #98 S.Olvera-Harle kick attempt good (H: #47 G.Heil, LS: #33 J.Mowr…Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 63% → 71% (+8 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:14 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 3rd & 10 at HAW 35Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short middle to #0 C.Barfield caught at HAW35, for 62 yards to the NIU03 (#2 A.Jones), 1ST DOWNHawaii Rainbow Warriors 74% → 86% (+12 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Hawai'i | Points added | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7 | Passingdropbacks | +3.9 |
| +0.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +5.6 |
| +11.0 | Explosive plays5 plays · 3 plays | +9.7 |
| -2.2 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 4 giveaways | -15.0 |
| +4.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.1 |
| +2.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.1 |
| +10.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 5 of 6 · 1 of 1 | +1.4 |
| +24.1 | All plays | +1.2 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 12.9 points to Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. The final margin was 35.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors closed as the market favourite at 58% and won.
The line moved toward Northern Illinois Huskies before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Hawai'i -6.5 (-109)
Hawai'i -3 (-108)
Northern Illinois +180 34%
Northern Illinois +127 42%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts305
- Completion %59.0%172nd
- Passing yards1,86319th
- Yards per attempt6.1220th
- TD–INT6–5
- Rushing yards314154th
- Season line70 carries, 314 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards38485th
- Season line32 catches, 384 yds
- Tackles5158th
- Attempts184
- Completion %65.8%66th
- Passing yards1,193147th
- Yards per attempt6.5204th
- TD–INT4–3
- Rushing yards43961st
- Season line81 carries, 439 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards42264th
- Season line49 catches, 422 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles43144th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Hawai'i | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateHawai'i offense vs Northern Illinois defense | 38.6%123rd | 47.1%117th |
| Early-down success rateNorthern Illinois offense vs Hawai'i defense | 44.1%88th | 47.6%19th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateHawai'i offense vs Northern Illinois defense | 37.0%94th | 66.7%138th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorthern Illinois offense vs Hawai'i defense | 40.4%70th | 30.8%121st |
| Explosive play rateHawai'i offense vs Northern Illinois defense | 5.3%111th | 8.5%116th |
| Explosive play rateNorthern Illinois offense vs Hawai'i defense | 6.9%70th | 6.0%92nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 68.1%1st-highest | 62.1%6th-highest |
On 3rd down Hawai'i converts 37.0% (94th) against a Northern Illinois defense allowing 66.7% (138th).
On 3rd down Northern Illinois converts 30.8% (121st) against a Hawai'i defense allowing 40.4% (70th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Hawai'i | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Timmy Chang | Rob Harley (interim) (interim) |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 23–35 | 0–6 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 23–35 | 0–6 |
| Offensive coordinator | Anthony Arceneaux | Tony Petersen |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennis Thurman | D. J. Bland |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- New Mexico Lobos 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 10 (Oct 17)
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 12, Arizona State Sun Devils 30 (Oct 10)
- San Jose State Spartans 20, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 16 (Oct 3)
Northern Illinois Huskies
- Northern Illinois Huskies team stats
- Northern Illinois Huskies at UNLV Rebels (Oct 31)
- Northern Illinois Huskies 23, Wyoming Cowboys 41 (Oct 17)
- Air Force Falcons 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 7 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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