Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Arizona State Sun Devils Final — October 10, 2026
HAWOffense2026 regular season to dateASU
HAWDefenseASUHAWLast 10 gamesASURest & travelrest and travel
HAWRest & travelASUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Hawai'i (1-4) visited Arizona State (1-2) on Saturday, October 10 at 10:30 PM ET.
Hawai'i has the 87th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 90th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arizona State has the 126th-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When Hawai'i has the ball, a 87th-ranked offense (+0.027 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (−0.074 allowed); when Arizona State has it, a 126th-ranked offense (−0.159) meets a 90th-ranked defense (+0.116 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Hawai'i offense is at 45.8% (77th) and the Arizona State offense at 39.4% (130th). Hawai'i scores 17.6 points per game (112th) and allows 24.8 (58th); Arizona State scores 21.0 (95th) and allows 40.0 (131st).
Arizona State is 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread; its last game was a 55-19 loss to Baylor.
Arizona State closed as a 20.5-point favorite at home against Hawai'i. The spread opened at Arizona State -17.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hawai'i +885, Arizona State -1600) prices Hawai'i at 10% and Arizona State at 90%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 12, Arizona State Sun Devils 30
Arizona State Sun Devils won by 18.
- Against the closing spread (Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5): Hawaii Rainbow Warriors covered.
- Combined score 42 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Arizona State Sun Devils closed at -1600 on the moneyline (a 90% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Arizona State Sun Devils.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 10%, Arizona State Sun Devils 90%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:54 — Arizona State Sun Devils ball, 2nd & 4 at ASU 26No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at ASU24, for 6 yards to the ASU32 (#2 K.Moore), 1ST DOWNHawaii Rainbow Warriors 6% → 11% (+5 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Hawai'i | Points added | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| -15.5 | Passingdropbacks | -2.9 |
| +2.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +8.4 |
| +12.5 | Explosive plays3 plays · 3 plays | +10.0 |
| -6.0 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -5.7 |
| +5.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +3.4 |
| -3.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 2 of 4 | +2.8 |
| -3.6 | All plays | +16.1 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 12.6 points to Arizona State Sun Devils. The final margin was 18.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Arizona State Sun Devils closed as the market favourite at 90% and won.
The line moved toward Arizona State Sun Devils before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Hawai'i +17.5 (-110)
Hawai'i +20.5 (-105)
Arizona State -998 87%
Arizona State -1600 90%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts216
- Completion %61.1%144th
- Passing yards1,36140th
- Yards per attempt6.3204th
- TD–INT4–3
- Rushing yards276106th
- Season line59 carries, 276 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards249133rd
- Season line22 catches, 249 yds
- Tackles3849th
- Attempts127
- Completion %61.4%137th
- Passing yards1,040106th
- Yards per attempt8.274th
- TD–INT10–3
- Rushing yards261120th
- Season line50 carries, 261 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards49911th
- Season line26 catches, 499 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles3849th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Hawai'i | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateHawai'i offense vs Arizona State defense | 40.4%100th | 40.6%37th |
| Early-down success rateArizona State offense vs Hawai'i defense | 42.6%59th | 41.5%87th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateHawai'i offense vs Arizona State defense | 37.7%88th | 42.1%86th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArizona State offense vs Hawai'i defense | 42.4%91st | 29.7%116th |
| Explosive play rateHawai'i offense vs Arizona State defense | 4.9%115th | 7.6%93rd |
| Explosive play rateArizona State offense vs Hawai'i defense | 6.9%77th | 7.5%50th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 67.2%1st-highest | 51.1%67th-highest |
On 3rd down Hawai'i converts 37.7% (88th) against a Arizona State defense allowing 42.1% (86th).
On 3rd down Arizona State converts 29.7% (116th) against a Hawai'i defense allowing 42.4% (91st).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Hawai'i | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Timmy Chang | Kenny Dillingham |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 23–33 | 24–18 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 23–33 | 24–18 |
| Offensive coordinator | Anthony Arceneaux | Marcus Arroyo |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennis Thurman | Brian Ward |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Teams
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 56, Northern Illinois Huskies 21 (Oct 24)
- New Mexico Lobos 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 10 (Oct 17)
- San Jose State Spartans 20, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 16 (Oct 3)
Arizona State Sun Devils
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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