New Mexico Lobos vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Final — October 17, 2026
UNMOffense2026 regular season to dateHAW
UNMDefenseHAWUNMLast 10 gamesHAWRest & travelrest and travel
UNMRest & travelHAWAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
New Mexico (3-1) visited Hawai'i (1-5) on Saturday, October 17 at 10:30 PM ET.
New Mexico has the 81st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 3rd-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Hawai'i has the 93rd-ranked offense and the 100th-ranked defense. When New Mexico has the ball, a 81st-ranked offense (+0.029 EPA per play) meets a 100th-ranked defense (+0.151 allowed); when Hawai'i has it, a 93rd-ranked offense (−0.003) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.206 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the New Mexico offense is at 49.5% (43rd) and the Hawai'i offense at 44.0% (95th). New Mexico scores 36.8 points per game (18th) and allows 11.5 (3rd); Hawai'i scores 16.7 (120th) and allows 25.7 (66th).
New Mexico is 4-1 and 5-0 against the spread; its last game was a 61-7 win over UTEP.
New Mexico closed as a 14.5-point road favorite, with Hawai'i getting the points at home. The spread opened at New Mexico -15.5. The total closed at 45.5, down from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (New Mexico -700, Hawai'i +500) prices New Mexico at 84% and Hawai'i at 16%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New Mexico Lobos 21, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 10
New Mexico Lobos won by 11.
- Against the closing spread (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +14.5): Hawaii Rainbow Warriors covered.
- Combined score 31 vs the closing total of 45.5: Under.
- New Mexico Lobos closed at -700 on the moneyline (a 84% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New Mexico Lobos 84%, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 16%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 11:39 — New Mexico Lobos ball, 4th & 2 at HAW 40Shotgun #81 B.George pass complete short right to #13 T.Fa'avae caught at Hawaii28, for 35 yards to the Hawaii05 (#5 J.Edmond), 1ST DOWNNew Mexico Lobos 46% → 61% (+15 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 0:29 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 3rd & 6 at HAW 45No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep middle to #83 J.Fetui caught at UNM08, for 47 yards to the UNM08 (#8 O.Arnold), 1ST DOWNHawaii Rainbow Warriors 42% → 62% (+20 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 14:01 — Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ball, 3rd & 12 at UNM 12No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Alejado rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNM00 fumbled by #12 M.Alejado at UNM01 forced by #12 D.Speech recovered by UNM #2 M.Swaim a…New Mexico Lobos 46% → 62% (+16 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 8:24 — New Mexico Lobos ball, 4th & 6 at HAW 34Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short middle to #0 M.Williams caught at Hawaii26, for 8 yards to the Hawaii26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNNew Mexico Lobos 58% → 73% (+14 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:57 — New Mexico Lobos ball, 3rd & 5 at HAW 21Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush middle for 21 yards gain to the Hawaii00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:57, 1ST DOWN #31 G.Glasgow kick attempt good (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #53 C.Be…New Mexico Lobos 68% → 81% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
New Mexico Lobos won after falling as low as 38% (Q4 14:51).
Game DNA
| New Mexico | Points added | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 | Passingdropbacks | -8.1 |
| -5.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.9 |
| +20.3 | Explosive plays5 plays · 2 plays | +1.9 |
| -6.0 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -8.8 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.8 |
| -3.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +7.8 |
| +1.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 1 of 4 | -1.2 |
| +2.5 | All plays | -16.5 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 18.3 points to New Mexico Lobos. The final margin was 11.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
New Mexico Lobos closed as the market favourite at 84% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
New Mexico -15.5 (-110)
New Mexico -14.5 (-110)
Hawai'i +525 15%
Hawai'i +500 16%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts52
- Completion %59.6%
- Passing yards444
- Yards per attempt8.5
- TD–INT4–1
- Rushing yards33293rd
- Season line70 carries, 332 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards218239th
- Season line11 catches, 218 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles25496th
- Attempts265
- Completion %59.2%173rd
- Passing yards1,61327th
- Yards per attempt6.1214th
- TD–INT5–4
- Rushing yards304121st
- Season line65 carries, 304 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards33592nd
- Season line29 catches, 335 yds
- Tackles4643rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | New Mexico | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNew Mexico offense vs Hawai'i defense | 43.8%64th | 45.1%89th |
| Early-down success rateHawai'i offense vs New Mexico defense | 29.8%1st | 39.1%114th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNew Mexico offense vs Hawai'i defense | 45.0%38th | 40.8%75th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateHawai'i offense vs New Mexico defense | 40.0%68th | 38.5%85th |
| Explosive play rateNew Mexico offense vs Hawai'i defense | 6.3%84th | 6.6%63rd |
| Explosive play rateHawai'i offense vs New Mexico defense | 5.0%17th | 5.2%109th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 39.8%127th-highest | 68.4%1st-highest |
On 3rd down New Mexico converts 45.0% (38th) against a Hawai'i defense allowing 40.8% (75th).
On 3rd down Hawai'i converts 38.5% (85th) against a New Mexico defense allowing 40.0% (68th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | New Mexico | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jason Eck | Timmy Chang |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 13–5 | 23–34 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 13–5 | 23–34 |
| Offensive coordinator | Luke Schleusner | Anthony Arceneaux |
| Defensive coordinator | Spence Nowinsky | Dennis Thurman |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: New Mexico won 1 and Hawai'i 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | New Mexico 30, Hawai'i 38 Hawai'i won | ||
| Oct 21, 2023 | Hawai'i 21, New Mexico 42 New Mexico won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
New Mexico Lobos
- New Mexico Lobos team stats
- New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans (Oct 31)
- North Dakota State Bison 16, New Mexico Lobos 21 (Oct 24)
- UTEP Miners 7, New Mexico Lobos 61 (Oct 3)
- Central Michigan Chippewas 7, New Mexico Lobos 38 (Sep 5)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
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