Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Navy Midshipmen Final — October 10, 2026
TLSAOffense2026 regular season to dateNAVY
TLSADefenseNAVYTLSARecent formNAVYTLSAHome and roadseason to dateNAVYTLSALast 10 gamesNAVYRest & travelrest and travel
TLSARest & travelNAVYAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Tulsa (2-2) visited Navy (0-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Tulsa has the 81st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 48th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Navy has the 113th-ranked offense and the 72nd-ranked defense. When Tulsa has the ball, a 81st-ranked offense (+0.037 EPA per play) meets a 72nd-ranked defense (+0.063 allowed); when Navy has it, a 113th-ranked offense (−0.086) meets a 48th-ranked defense (+0.002 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Tulsa offense is at 44.0% (97th) and the Navy offense at 42.9% (106th). Tulsa scores 24.2 points per game (78th) and allows 26.5 (72nd); Navy scores 19.7 (100th) and allows 25.3 (62nd).
Tulsa is 3-2 and 3-2 against the spread; its last game was a 45-44 loss to North Texas. Navy is 1-3 and 0-4 against the spread; its last game was a 14-9 loss to Air Force.
Navy closed as a 2.5-point favorite at home against Tulsa. The spread opened at Navy -3.5. The total closed at 47.5, down from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Tulsa +120, Navy -145) prices Tulsa at 43% and Navy at 57%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26, Navy Midshipmen 34
Navy Midshipmen won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (Navy Midshipmen -2.5): Navy Midshipmen covered.
- Combined score 60 vs the closing total of 47.5: Over.
- Navy Midshipmen closed at -145 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tulsa Golden Hurricane 43%, Navy Midshipmen 57%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:42 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 3rd & 2 at NAVY 44Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 56 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:42, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R…Navy Midshipmen 57% → 69% (+12 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 9:47 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 2nd & 2 at TLSA 20#8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa14 fumbled by #8 J.Gutierrez at Tulsa17 forced by #19 R.Leathers recovered by Tulsa #12 D.Scott at Tulsa1…Tulsa Golden Hurricane 66% → 77% (+11 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:17 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 3rd & 6 at NAVY 42Truman Brasfield 58 Yd pass from Jackson Gutierrez (Nolan Bartley Kick)Navy Midshipmen 15% → 32% (+17 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:56 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 1st & 10 at TLSA 44#8 J.Gutierrez pass intercepted by #4 T.Williams at Tulsa14, End Of PlayTulsa Golden Hurricane 61% → 73% (+12 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:55 — Navy Midshipmen ball, 3rd & 9 at TLSA 31Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Tulsa17 (#11 J.George), 1ST DOWNNavy Midshipmen 33% → 45% (+11 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
Navy Midshipmen won after falling as low as 13% (Q2 1:27).
Game DNA
| Tulsa | Points added | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| -2.4 | Passingdropbacks | +3.5 |
| -4.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | +11.4 |
| +14.5 | Explosive plays6 plays · 3 plays | +13.0 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 4 giveaways | -17.7 |
| -0.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.0 |
| -0.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.0 |
| +4.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 3 of 5 | +7.4 |
| +10.9 | All plays | +17.6 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 17.7 points to Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Navy Midshipmen closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
The line moved toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Tulsa +3.5 (-110)
Tulsa +2.5 (-108)
Navy -175 61%
Navy -145 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts96
- Completion %60.4%153rd
- Passing yards564230th
- Yards per attempt5.9228th
- TD–INT4–1
- Rushing yards29293rd
- Season line68 carries, 292 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards30677th
- Season line26 catches, 306 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles495th
- Attempts40
- Completion %42.5%
- Passing yards344
- Yards per attempt8.6
- TD–INT3–0
- Rushing yards29986th
- Season line38 carries, 299 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards107480th
- Season line2 catches, 107 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles33115th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Tulsa | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTulsa offense vs Navy defense | 40.2%104th | 37.5%13th |
| Early-down success rateNavy offense vs Tulsa defense | 36.1%9th | 41.9%83rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTulsa offense vs Navy defense | 21.4%136th | 53.5%132nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNavy offense vs Tulsa defense | 42.2%87th | 31.4%115th |
| Explosive play rateTulsa offense vs Navy defense | 4.7%117th | 4.7%17th |
| Explosive play rateNavy offense vs Tulsa defense | 5.3%26th | 6.3%86th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.6%57th-highest | 34.8%133rd-highest |
On 3rd down Tulsa converts 21.4% (136th) against a Navy defense allowing 53.5% (132nd).
On 3rd down Navy converts 31.4% (115th) against a Tulsa defense allowing 42.2% (87th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Tulsa | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tre Lamb | Brian Newberry |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 7–10 | 27–15 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 7–10 | 27–15 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kevin Barbay / Ty Darlington | Drew Cronic |
| Defensive coordinator | Mike Gray / Josh Reardon | Ricky Brown / Eric Lewis |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Tulsa won 0 and Navy 3.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2025 | Navy 42, Tulsa 23 Navy won | ||
| Oct 8, 2022 | Tulsa 21, Navy 53 Navy won | ||
| Oct 29, 2021 | Navy 20, Tulsa 17 Navy won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane team stats
- Army Black Knights 38, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 35 (Oct 23)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane 38, Rice Owls 17 (Oct 17)
- North Texas Mean Green 45, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 44 (Oct 1)
Navy Midshipmen
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
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