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NFL · Week 1 · September 13, 2026

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Final — September 13, 2026

Sunday, September 13 · 4:25 PM ETLincoln Financial Field · outdoorsWeek 1
WSHOffenseFull 2025 regular season (last season)PHI
18th+0.006
EPA/play
+0.02616th
10th45.7%
Success %
43.1%20th
18th+0.038
EPA/dropback
+0.07314th
12th−0.037
EPA/rush
−0.03913th
22nd20.9
PPG
22.319th
WSHDefensePHI
30th+0.143
EPA/play allowed
−0.0798th
27th47.6%
Success % allowed
41.7%9th
30th+0.223
EPA/dropback allowed
−0.0697th
28th+0.034
EPA/rush allowed
−0.0947th
27th26.5
Opp PPG
19.15th
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
WSHRest & travelPHI
114 mi183 km
Travel to the game
Home
VenueLincoln Financial Field
Outdoors
WSHKey injuriesPHI
None listed
Players out or limited
None listed
About these numbers

Full 2025 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).

Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed out, doubtful or questionable.

Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.

The pre-game matchup

The Commanders visited the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 1.

Last season (2025), the Commanders had the 18th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 30th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Eagles had the 16th-ranked offense and the 8th-ranked defense. When the Commanders have the ball, a 18th-ranked offense (+0.006 EPA per play) meets a 8th-ranked defense (−0.079 allowed); when the Eagles have it, a 16th-ranked offense (+0.026) meets a 30th-ranked defense (+0.143 allowed).

By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Commanders offense was at 45.7% (10th) and the Eagles offense at 43.1% (20th). Through the air, the Commanders averaged +0.038 EPA per dropback (18th) against a Eagles pass defense ranked 7th; the Eagles averaged +0.073 (14th) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 30th. The Commanders scored 20.9 points per game (22nd) and allowed 26.5 (27th); the Eagles scored 22.3 (19th) and allowed 19.1 (5th). The new season has no games yet, so these are last season's full-season numbers; rosters change over the offseason.

The Eagles closed as 6-point favorites at home against the Commanders. The spread opened at Eagles -4.5. The total closed at 43.5, down from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Commanders +215, Eagles -267) prices the Commanders at 30% and the Eagles at 70%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24

Philadelphia Eagles won by 2.

  • Against the closing spread (Philadelphia Eagles -6): Washington Commanders covered.
  • Combined score 46 vs the closing total of 43.5: Over.
  • Philadelphia Eagles closed at -267 on the moneyline (a 70% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

30%Market at the close70%
Washington CommandersPhiladelphia Eagles
34%Market at the open66%

From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Philadelphia Eagles.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Washington Commanders 30%, Philadelphia Eagles 70%) and moving with every snap until the final.

100%75%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Market start1Q4 12:12: Washington Commanders 11% to 22%2Q4 10:04: Washington Commanders 18% to 28%3Q4 8:03: Philadelphia Eagles 63% to 79%4Q4 6:12: Philadelphia Eagles 75% to 91%5Q4 2:04: Washington Commanders 9% to 22%■ Eagles■ Commanders
 

Biggest swings

  1. Q4 12:12 — Washington Commanders ball, 3rd & 14 at PHI 42(Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 14-A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 14 for 33 yards (11-J.Campbell).Washington Commanders 11% → 22% (+11 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
  2. Q4 10:04 — Washington Commanders ball, 3rd & 6 at PHI 10(Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.Washington Commanders 18% → 28% (+10 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
  3. Q4 8:03 — Philadelphia Eagles ball, 3rd & 18 at PHI 31(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (2-A.Robertson).Philadelphia Eagles 63% → 79% (+16 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
  4. Q4 6:12 — Philadelphia Eagles ball, 3rd & 6 at WAS 43(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Philadelphia Eagles 75% → 91% (+16 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
  5. Q4 2:04 — Washington Commanders ball, 4th & 2 at PHI 10(Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (29-M.Epps).Washington Commanders 9% → 22% (+13 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

34%WAS
Chance to win, from chances created
66%PHI
19.8
Expected points
22.7
22
Final score
24

Based on the quality of each team's plays, Philadelphia Eagles would win 66% of the time (Washington Commanders 34%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Philadelphia Eagles. Here is where that came from.

CommandersPoints addedEagles
-9.1Passingdropbacks
-14.0
-3.1Rushingdesigned runs
-3.5
+9.9Explosive plays7 plays · 6 plays
+18.1
+0.0Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways
+0.0
+0.2Special teamskicks, punts and returns
+1.1
-2.6Penalties6 for 45 yds · 5 for 40 yds
-2.6
+6.3Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 3
+3.1
+1.6All plays
+2.1
Bar left: Commanders gainedBar right: Eagles gained

The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 8.2 points to Philadelphia Eagles. The final margin was 2.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Jessica's HandicapWashington Commanders 1H +3.5 -1151.00uLOSS -1.15u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Philadelphia Eagles closed as the market favourite at 70% and won.

The line moved toward Philadelphia Eagles before kickoff, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 1.5
OpenEagles -4.5 (-109)
Commanders +4.5 (-110)
CloseEagles -6 (-107)
Commanders +6 (-110)
Totaldown 3
Open46.5 (o -105 / u -115)
Close43.5 (o -115 / u -105)
Moneyline
OpenCommanders +183 34%
Eagles -227 66%
CloseCommanders +215 30%
Eagles -267 70%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %

Matchup

Coaching and tendencies

Commanders head coachDan Quinn
Eagles head coachNick Sirianni
StaffCommandersEagles
Head coachDan QuinnNick Sirianni
Offensive coordinatorDavid BloughSean Mannion
Defensive coordinatorDaronte JonesVic Fangio

Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Commanders won 9 and the Eagles 14. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Commanders won 24-17; the Eagles averaged −0.103 EPA per play; the Commanders averaged −0.025 EPA per play.

DateScoreSpreadTotalEPA/play
Jan 4, 2026Commanders 24, Eagles 17
Commanders won
Eagles -3
Commanders covered
38.5
over
Eagles −0.103 · Commanders −0.025
Dec 20, 2025Eagles 29, Commanders 18
Eagles won
Eagles -7
Eagles covered
43.5
over
Eagles +0.290 · Commanders −0.125
Jan 26, 2025 playoffsCommanders 23, Eagles 55
Eagles won
Eagles -6
Eagles covered
46.5
over
Eagles +0.399 · Commanders −0.089
Dec 22, 2024Eagles 33, Commanders 36
Commanders won
Eagles -4
Commanders covered
47
over
Eagles +0.026 · Commanders −0.066
Nov 14, 2024Commanders 18, Eagles 26
Eagles won
Eagles -4.5
Eagles covered
49.5
under
Eagles +0.201 · Commanders −0.117

The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.

Teams

Washington Commanders

Philadelphia Eagles

Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.

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