Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Final — September 13, 2026
GBOffenseFull 2025 regular season (last season)MIN
GBDefenseMINInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
GBRest & travelMINGBKey injuriesMINAbout these numbers
Full 2025 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Packers visited the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 1.
Last season (2025), the Packers had the 4th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 22nd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings had the 28th-ranked offense and the 4th-ranked defense. When the Packers have the ball, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.115 EPA per play) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.099 allowed); when the Vikings have it, a 28th-ranked offense (−0.116) meets a 22nd-ranked defense (+0.034 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Packers offense was at 47.7% (5th) and the Vikings offense at 42.6% (23rd). Through the air, the Packers averaged +0.256 EPA per dropback (2nd) against a Vikings pass defense ranked 2nd; the Vikings averaged −0.155 (29th) against a Packers pass defense ranked 22nd. The Packers scored 23.0 points per game (16th) and allowed 21.2 (11th); the Vikings scored 20.2 (26th) and allowed 19.6 (7th). The new season has no games yet, so these are last season's full-season numbers; rosters change over the offseason.
The Vikings closed as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Packers. The spread opened at Vikings -1.5. The total closed 45.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Packers +116, Vikings -139) prices the Packers at 44% and the Vikings at 56%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39
Minnesota Vikings won by 17.
- Against the closing spread (Minnesota Vikings -2.5): Minnesota Vikings covered.
- Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 45.5: Over.
- Minnesota Vikings closed at -139 on the moneyline (a 56% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Minnesota Vikings.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Green Bay Packers 44%, Minnesota Vikings 56%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 7:54 — Green Bay Packers ball, 2nd & 10 at GB 19(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.Green Bay Packers 56% → 69% (+12 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 15:00 — Green Bay Packers ball, 2nd & 20 at GB 32(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 0-M.Golden to MIN 26 for 42 yards (44-J.Metellus).Green Bay Packers 71% → 84% (+13 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:17 — Green Bay Packers ball, 4th & 1 at MIN 1710-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).Minnesota Vikings 19% → 31% (+12 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 6:49 — Minnesota Vikings ball, 3rd & 5 at GB 6(Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [98-J.Hargrave] at GB -4. 33-E.Williams to GB 13 for 17 yards (33-A.Jones). PENALTY on GB-29-X.McKinney, Defensive HoldiMinnesota Vikings 44% → 57% (+13 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 5:01 — Green Bay Packers ball, 3rd & 17 at GB 23(Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by 43-A.Van Ginkel and 51-B.Cashman). FUMBLES (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-43-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. 43-A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7Minnesota Vikings 75% → 95% (+19 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Minnesota Vikings won after falling as low as 10% (Q3 5:59).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Green Bay Packers would win 57% of the time (Minnesota Vikings 43%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Packers | Points added | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Passingdropbacks | -5.7 |
| -6.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.0 |
| +25.3 | Explosive plays10 plays · 4 plays | +8.6 |
| -12.4 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.1 |
| +3.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.0 |
| -1.5 | Penalties12 for 98 yds · 3 for 15 yds | +5.5 |
| -10.3 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 4 · 4 of 4 | +4.1 |
| -9.7 | All plays | +7.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 16.7 points to Green Bay Packers. The final margin was 17.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Minnesota Vikings closed as the market favourite at 56% and won.
The line moved toward Minnesota Vikings before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Packers +1.5 (-115)
Packers +2.5 (-110)
Vikings -118 52%
Vikings -139 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Matt LaFleur | Kevin O'Connell |
| Offensive coordinator | Adam Stenavich | Wes Phillips |
| Defensive coordinator | Jonathan Gannon | Brian Flores |
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Packers won 9 and the Vikings 12, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Vikings won 16-3; the Packers averaged −0.329 EPA per play; the Vikings averaged −0.043 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Packers 3, Vikings 16 Vikings won | Vikings -12.5 Vikings covered | 37.5 under | Packers −0.329 · Vikings −0.043 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Vikings 6, Packers 23 Packers won | Packers -6.5 Packers covered | 41.5 under | Packers +0.025 · Vikings −0.429 |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Packers 25, Vikings 27 Vikings won | Packers -1 Vikings covered | 49 over | Packers −0.030 · Vikings +0.092 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Vikings 31, Packers 29 Vikings won | Packers -2.5 Vikings covered | 44 over | Packers −0.124 · Vikings +0.033 |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Packers 33, Vikings 10 Packers won | Vikings -1 Packers covered | 42.5 over | Packers +0.273 · Vikings −0.339 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Green Bay Packers
- Green Bay Packers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Oct 29)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings team stats
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Nov 1)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 13, 2026
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 (Sep 13)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 (Sep 13)
- Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 (Sep 13)
- Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Sep 13)
- Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 (Sep 13)
- Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Sep 13)
- Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 13)
- Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 (Sep 13)
- Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 (Sep 13)
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