Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars Final — September 13, 2026
CLEOffenseFull 2025 regular season (last season)JAX
CLEDefenseJAXInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CLERest & travelJAXCLEKey injuriesJAXAbout these numbers
Full 2025 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Browns visited the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, September 13 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 1.
Last season (2025), the Browns had the 31st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 5th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had the 14th-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense. When the Browns have the ball, a 31st-ranked offense (−0.190 EPA per play) meets a 3rd-ranked defense (−0.105 allowed); when the Jaguars have it, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.031) meets a 5th-ranked defense (−0.096 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Browns offense was at 34.5% (32nd) and the Jaguars offense at 44.4% (15th). Through the air, the Browns averaged −0.252 EPA per dropback (32nd) against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 3rd; the Jaguars averaged +0.084 (11th) against a Browns pass defense ranked 4th. The Browns scored 16.4 points per game (31st) and allowed 22.3 (14th); the Jaguars scored 27.9 (6th) and allowed 19.8 (8th). The new season has no games yet, so these are last season's full-season numbers; rosters change over the offseason.
The Jaguars closed as 8.5-point favorites at home against the Browns. The spread opened at Jaguars -7.5. The total closed 40.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Browns +345, Jaguars -450) prices the Browns at 22% and the Jaguars at 78%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34
Jacksonville Jaguars won by 24.
- Against the closing spread (Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5): Jacksonville Jaguars covered.
- Combined score 44 vs the closing total of 40.5: Over.
- Jacksonville Jaguars closed at -450 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Jacksonville Jaguars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Cleveland Browns 22%, Jacksonville Jaguars 78%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 12:17 — Cleveland Browns ball, 2nd & 5 at JAX 284-D.Watson pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun [52-D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (74-E.Jenkins).Jacksonville Jaguars 74% → 83% (+9 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Jacksonville Jaguars would win 98% of the time (Cleveland Browns 2%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Jacksonville Jaguars. Here is where that came from.
| Browns | Points added | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1 | Passingdropbacks | +1.6 |
| -2.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.7 |
| +9.2 | Explosive plays5 plays · 11 plays | +16.3 |
| -10.7 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +6.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.0 |
| -4.1 | Penalties11 for 75 yds · 4 for 25 yds | -1.1 |
| -5.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 2 · 2 of 2 | +3.8 |
| -7.1 | All plays | +19.8 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 10.7 points to Jacksonville Jaguars. The final margin was 24.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Jacksonville Jaguars closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
The line moved toward Jacksonville Jaguars before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Browns +7.5 (-107)
Browns +8.5 (-109)
Jaguars -400 77%
Jaguars -450 78%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Browns | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Todd Monken | Liam Coen |
| Offensive coordinator | Travis Switzer | Grant Udinski |
| Defensive coordinator | Mike Rutenberg | Anthony Campanile |
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Browns won 3 and the Jaguars 1. In the most recent meeting (September 15, 2024), the Browns won 18-13; the Browns averaged +0.022 EPA per play; the Jaguars averaged −0.034 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2024 | Browns 18, Jaguars 13 Browns won | Jaguars -3 Browns covered | 41.5 under | Browns +0.022 · Jaguars −0.034 |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Jaguars 27, Browns 31 Browns won | Browns -2.5 Browns covered | 37.5 over | Browns −0.118 · Jaguars −0.188 |
| Nov 29, 2020 | Browns 27, Jaguars 25 Browns won | Browns -7.5 Jaguars covered | 48.5 over | Browns +0.209 · Jaguars +0.145 |
| Nov 19, 2017 | Jaguars 19, Browns 7 Jaguars won | Jaguars -7.5 Jaguars covered | 37 under | Browns −0.629 · Jaguars −0.202 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Cleveland Browns
- Cleveland Browns team stats
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Nov 1)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jacksonville Jaguars team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (Nov 1)
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 13, 2026
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 (Sep 13)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 (Sep 13)
- Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 (Sep 13)
- Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Sep 13)
- Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Sep 13)
- Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 13)
- Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 (Sep 13)
- Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 (Sep 13)
- Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 (Sep 13)
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