Carolina Panthers vs Philadelphia Eagles Final — October 18, 2026
CARStarting quarterbacksexpected startersPHI
CAROffense2026 regular season to datePHICARDefensePHICARRecent formPHICARHome and roadseason to datePHIInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CARRest & travelPHICARKey injuriesPHIAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Panthers (2-2) visited the Eagles (2-3) at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 6.
The Panthers have the 8th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Eagles have the 30th-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When the Panthers have the ball, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.115 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (+0.069 allowed); when the Eagles have it, a 30th-ranked offense (−0.127) meets a 21st-ranked defense (+0.028 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Panthers offense is at 44.2% (14th) and the Eagles offense at 36.2% (31st). Through the air, the Panthers average +0.230 EPA per dropback (6th) against a Eagles pass defense ranked 24th; the Eagles average −0.083 (24th) against a Panthers pass defense ranked 20th. The Panthers score 30.2 points per game (4th) and allow 27.2 (26th); the Eagles score 18.4 (29th) and allow 22.4 (14th).
Bryce Young has a 46.3% success rate (17th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Andy Dalton's 0.0% (35th). Per dropback, Young is at +0.225 EPA to Dalton's −5.569, with 9 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Dalton's 0 and 1. Andy Dalton is in line to start in place of Jalen Hurts, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Panthers are 2-2 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 32-26 win over the Lions. The Eagles are 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread; their last game was a 19-17 loss to the Jaguars. The Panthers are coming off a bye.
The Panthers closed as 3-point road favorites, with the Eagles getting the points at home. The spread opened with Eagles favored by 1.5. The total closed at 39.5, down from 42.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Panthers -161, Eagles +134) prices the Panthers at 59% and the Eagles at 41%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14
Carolina Panthers won by 11.
- Against the closing spread (Philadelphia Eagles +3): Carolina Panthers covered.
- Combined score 39 vs the closing total of 39.5: Under.
- Carolina Panthers closed at -161 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 11 points toward Carolina Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Carolina Panthers 59%, Philadelphia Eagles 41%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 8:33 — Carolina Panthers ball, 2nd & 20 at PHI 40(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to PHI 24 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun; 11-J.Campbell). PENALTY on PHI-90-J.Davis, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 24.Carolina Panthers 74% → 81% (+6 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:56 — Carolina Panthers ball, 3rd & 15 at CAR 15(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 21 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).Carolina Panthers 67% → 75% (+7 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:27 — Carolina Panthers ball, 3rd & 8 at CAR 10(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 42 for 32 yards (24-A.Mukuba).Carolina Panthers 76% → 84% (+8 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:48 — Philadelphia Eagles ball, 2nd & 6 at CAR 19(No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Philadelphia Eagles 11% → 16% (+6 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:32 — Philadelphia Eagles ball, 1st & 10 at PHI 48(Shotgun) 16-T.McKee Aborted. 75-J.Majors FUMBLES at PHI 43, recovered by PHI-16-T.McKee at PHI 36. ** Injury Update: PHI-13-D.Wicks has returned to the game.Carolina Panthers 71% → 80% (+9 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Panthers | Points added | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| -15.4 | Passingdropbacks | -18.8 |
| -4.0 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.8 |
| +22.3 | Explosive plays13 plays · 5 plays | +7.4 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.1 |
| +1.1 | Penalties13 for 149 yds · 11 for 84 yds | +1.4 |
| +5.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 4 · 2 of 2 | +3.6 |
| +10.8 | All plays | -11.1 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 14.8 points to Carolina Panthers. The final margin was 11.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Carolina Panthers closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.
The line moved toward Carolina Panthers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Panthers +1.5 (-113)
Panthers -3 (-111)
Eagles -122 52%
Eagles +134 41%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Tetairoa McMillan has 385 receiving yards for the Panthers (10th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.5%. Chuba Hubbard has 306 rushing yards on 61 carries (14th of 41 qualified running backs). Dontayvion Wicks has 260 receiving yards for the Eagles (27th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.6%.
- Carries61
- Rush yards30614th
- Yards per carry5.09th
- EPA per rush+0.04410th
- Rush success rate47.5%4th
- Targets / catches39 / 26
- Receiving yards38510th
- Target share26.5%12th
- Yards per target9.920th
- EPA per target+0.40831st
- Targets / catches19 / 13
- Receiving yards14822nd
- Target share12.9%26th
- Yards per target7.812th
- EPA per target+0.4449th
- Carries28
- Rush yards91
- Yards per carry3.2
- EPA per rush−0.171
- Rush success rate35.7%
- Targets / catches28 / 17
- Receiving yards26027th
- Target share19.6%40th
- Yards per target9.330th
- EPA per target+0.51023rd
- Targets / catches16 / 11
- Receiving yards11928th
- Target share17.2%14th
- Yards per target7.416th
- EPA per target+0.4547th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Panthers | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePanthers offense vs Eagles defense | 45.6%12th | 43.4%17th |
| Early-down success rateEagles offense vs Panthers defense | 43.4%16th | 36.2%30th |
| Early-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Eagles defense | +0.1923rd | +0.00216th |
| Early-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Panthers defense | +0.05522nd | −0.08227th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePanthers offense vs Eagles defense | 38.0%20th | 38.4%14th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEagles offense vs Panthers defense | 42.6%21st | 36.8%22nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Eagles defense | −0.08316th | +0.19926th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Panthers defense | −0.05417th | −0.09817th |
| Red-zone TD ratePanthers offense vs Eagles defense | 68.8%8th | 55.6%12th |
| Red-zone TD rateEagles offense vs Panthers defense | 72.7%26th | 64.3%12th |
| Red-zone success ratePanthers offense vs Eagles defense | 45.7%9th | 49.3%26th |
| Red-zone success rateEagles offense vs Panthers defense | 41.0%14th | 39.0%20th |
On early downs the Panthers succeed on 45.6% of plays (12th) against a Eagles defense that allows 43.4% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 38.0% (20th) against a defense allowing 38.4% (14th). On early downs the Eagles succeed on 36.2% of plays (30th) against a Panthers defense that allows 43.4% (16th); on 3rd down they convert 36.8% (22nd) against a defense allowing 42.6% (21st). The Panthers score touchdowns on 68.8% of red-zone trips (8th). The Eagles score touchdowns on 64.3% of red-zone trips (12th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Panthers | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dave Canales | Nick Sirianni |
| Offensive coordinator | Brad Idzik | Sean Mannion |
| Defensive coordinator | Ejiro Evero | Vic Fangio |
| Offense tendencies | Panthers | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | 4.2%2nd-highest | −4.3%24th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 66.8%5th-highest | 62.7%14th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 62.1%6th-highest | 54.3%17th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 65.9%13th-highest | 69.3%6th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 6.1%14th-highest | 12.2%3rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 28.932nd-slowest | 32.916th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 18.6%6th | 13.2%25th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 10.8%4th | 6.6%30th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 12.6%6th | 4.7%30th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.7%14th | 7.2%25th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 1.13%9th | 1.74%15th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 66.04th-most | 57.427th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 2 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
| Defense | Panthers | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 4.7%25th | 3.1%30th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 11.9%6th | 15.9%18th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 6.9%4th | 7.9%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 10.2%21st | 7.5%5th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 2.25%11th | 0.91%29th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 10.7%31st | 10.3%32nd |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.5%22nd | 15.6%18th |
The Panthers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (4.2% pass rate over expected, 2nd-highest), while the Eagles sit at −4.3% (24th-highest). In neutral situations the Panthers take 28.9 seconds between snaps and the Eagles 32.9, so the Panthers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Panthers have gone for it 2 of 4 times and the Eagles 5 of 7.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Panthers won 2 and the Eagles 3. In the most recent meeting (December 8, 2024), the Eagles won 22-16; the Panthers averaged +0.019 EPA per play; the Eagles averaged +0.142 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | Panthers 16, Eagles 22 Eagles won | Eagles -14 Panthers covered | 44.5 under | Panthers +0.019 · Eagles +0.142 |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Eagles 21, Panthers 18 Eagles won | Panthers -2.5 Eagles covered | 46 under | Panthers −0.299 · Eagles −0.256 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | Panthers 21, Eagles 17 Panthers won | Eagles -5 Panthers covered | 45 under | Panthers +0.252 · Eagles +0.102 |
| Oct 12, 2017 | Eagles 28, Panthers 23 Eagles won | Panthers -3 Eagles covered | 44 over | Panthers −0.206 · Eagles −0.005 |
| Oct 25, 2015 | Eagles 16, Panthers 27 Panthers won | Panthers -3 Panthers covered | 46 under | Panthers +0.014 · Eagles −0.115 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Carolina Panthers
- Carolina Panthers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Oct 29)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 (Sep 13)
Philadelphia Eagles
- Philadelphia Eagles team stats
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Nov 1)
- Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Oct 26)
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 18, 2026
- Houston Texans 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 (Oct 18)
- Tennessee Titans 26, Indianapolis Colts 20 (Oct 18)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 (Oct 18)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
- Buffalo Bills 33, Las Vegas Raiders 30 (Oct 18)
- Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 (Oct 18)
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