Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers Final — September 13, 2026
CHIOffenseFull 2025 regular season (last season)CAR
CHIDefenseCARInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CHIRest & travelCARCHIKey injuriesCARAbout these numbers
Full 2025 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Bears visited the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday, September 13 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 1.
Last season (2025), the Bears had the 8th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 19th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers had the 26th-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When the Bears have the ball, a 8th-ranked offense (+0.079 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.067 allowed); when the Panthers have it, a 26th-ranked offense (−0.039) meets a 19th-ranked defense (+0.018 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bears offense was at 45.8% (9th) and the Panthers offense at 43.1% (21st). Through the air, the Bears averaged +0.116 EPA per dropback (9th) against a Panthers pass defense ranked 24th; the Panthers averaged −0.028 (26th) against a Bears pass defense ranked 17th. The Bears scored 25.9 points per game (9th) and allowed 24.4 (23rd); the Panthers scored 18.3 (27th) and allowed 22.4 (15th). The new season has no games yet, so these are last season's full-season numbers; rosters change over the offseason.
The Bears closed as 3-point road favorites, with the Panthers getting the points at home. The spread opened at Bears -2.5. The total closed at 46.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bears -163, Panthers +136) prices the Bears at 59% and the Panthers at 41%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37
Chicago Bears won by 22.
- Against the closing spread (Carolina Panthers +3): Chicago Bears covered.
- Combined score 96 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- Chicago Bears closed at -163 on the moneyline (a 59% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Chicago Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Chicago Bears 59%, Carolina Panthers 41%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 14:06 — Chicago Bears ball, 2nd & 7 at CHI 23(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to CHI 30 for 7 yards (55-D.Lloyd, 58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at CHI 33, RECOVERED by CAR-24-W.Lee at CHI 42.Carolina Panthers 42% → 51% (+9 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:07 — Chicago Bears ball, 4th & 5 at CHI 3019-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.Chicago Bears 53% → 66% (+13 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 3:41 — Carolina Panthers ball, 2nd & 10 at CAR 26(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 25-J.Brooks to CHI 26 for 48 yards (1-J.Johnson).Carolina Panthers 36% → 46% (+10 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:17 — Chicago Bears ball, 3rd & 11 at CHI 19(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 47 for 28 yards (21-N.Scott).Chicago Bears 52% → 62% (+9 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:32 — Chicago Bears ball, 1st & 10 at CAR 29(Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Chicago Bears 66% → 76% (+10 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
Chicago Bears won after falling as low as 37% (Q1 9:49).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Chicago Bears would win 81% of the time (Carolina Panthers 19%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Chicago Bears. Here is where that came from.
| Bears | Points added | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| +2.7 | Passingdropbacks | -9.1 |
| -8.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.6 |
| +30.8 | Explosive plays11 plays · 12 plays | +19.9 |
| +1.4 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -4.2 |
| +1.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.5 |
| -1.1 | Penalties12 for 57 yds · 11 for 84 yds | -3.7 |
| +7.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 4 · 4 of 4 | +9.4 |
| +34.0 | All plays | +7.1 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 11.8 points to Chicago Bears. The final margin was 22.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Chicago Bears closed as the market favourite at 59% and won.
The line moved toward Chicago Bears before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Bears -2.5 (-119)
Bears -3 (-105)
Panthers +128 42%
Panthers +136 41%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bears | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ben Johnson | Dave Canales |
| Offensive coordinator | Press Taylor | Brad Idzik |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennis Allen | Ejiro Evero |
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Bears won 4 and the Panthers 0. In the most recent meeting (October 6, 2024), the Bears won 36-10; the Panthers averaged −0.260 EPA per play; the Bears averaged +0.214 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2024 | Panthers 10, Bears 36 Bears won | Bears -4 Bears covered | 40 over | Panthers −0.260 · Bears +0.214 |
| Nov 9, 2023 | Panthers 13, Bears 16 Bears won | Bears -3 push | 38 under | Panthers −0.138 · Bears −0.059 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | Bears 23, Panthers 16 Bears won | Panthers -2 Bears covered | 45 under | Panthers −0.282 · Bears +0.002 |
| Oct 22, 2017 | Panthers 3, Bears 17 Bears won | Panthers -2.5 Bears covered | 39.5 under | Panthers −0.432 · Bears −0.336 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Chicago Bears
- Chicago Bears team stats
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (Nov 2)
- New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30 (Oct 22)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
Carolina Panthers
- Carolina Panthers team stats
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Oct 29)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 (Oct 4)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 13, 2026
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 (Sep 13)
- Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31 (Sep 13)
- Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Sep 13)
- Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 (Sep 13)
- Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Sep 13)
- Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 13)
- Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 (Sep 13)
- Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 (Sep 13)
- Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 (Sep 13)
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