Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Final — September 13, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31
Buffalo Bills won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Houston Texans +1.5): Buffalo Bills covered.
- Combined score 67 vs the closing total of 44.5: Over.
- Buffalo Bills closed at -117 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Bills visited the Texans at NRG Stadium on Sunday, September 13 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 1.
Last season (2025), the Bills had the 3rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 13th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Texans had the 21st-ranked offense and the 1st-ranked defense. When the Bills have the ball, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.136 EPA per play) meets a 1st-ranked defense (−0.131 allowed); when the Texans have it, a 21st-ranked offense (−0.013) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.016 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Bills offense was at 48.5% (2nd) and the Texans offense at 41.3% (28th). Through the air, the Bills averaged +0.194 EPA per dropback (4th) against a Texans pass defense ranked 1st; the Texans averaged +0.062 (15th) against a Bills pass defense ranked 8th. The Bills scored 28.3 points per game (4th) and allowed 21.5 (12th); the Texans scored 23.8 (13th) and allowed 17.4 (2nd). The new season has no games yet, so these are last season's full-season numbers; rosters change over the offseason.
The Bills closed as 1.5-point road favorites, with the Texans getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed 44.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Bills -117, Texans -102) prices the Bills at 52% and the Texans at 48%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
BillsFull 2025 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Brady | DeMeco Ryans |
| Offensive coordinator | Pete Carmichael | Nick Caley |
| Defensive coordinator | Jim Leonhard | Matt Burke |
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- T.J. Sanders DEQuestionableKnee
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Bills travel about 1,290 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour back.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the Bills won 2 and the Texans 4. In the most recent meeting (November 20, 2025), the Texans won 23-19; the Bills averaged −0.164 EPA per play; the Texans averaged −0.064 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | Bills 19, Texans 23 Texans won | Bills -5.5 Texans covered | 43.5 under | Bills −0.164 · Texans −0.064 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Bills 20, Texans 23 Texans won | Texans -1 Texans covered | 48 under | Bills −0.015 · Texans −0.058 |
| Oct 3, 2021 | Texans 0, Bills 40 Bills won | Bills -19 Bills covered | 47.5 under | Bills +0.117 · Texans −0.832 |
| Jan 4, 2020 playoffs | Bills 19, Texans 22 Texans won | Texans -2.5 Texans covered | 43 under | Bills +0.019 · Texans −0.043 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | Bills 13, Texans 20 Texans won | Texans -10.5 Bills covered | 40.5 under | Bills −0.261 · Texans −0.404 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Bills -1.5 (-104)
Bills -1.5 (-105)
Texans -105 49%
Texans -102 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Buffalo Bills
- Buffalo Bills team stats
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Oct 4)
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 (Sep 17)
Houston Texans
- Houston Texans team stats
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (Oct 4)
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6 (Sep 20)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 13, 2026
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37 (Sep 13)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33 (Sep 13)
- Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Sep 13)
- Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 (Sep 13)
- Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27 (Sep 13)
- Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 (Sep 13)
- Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39 (Sep 13)
- Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 (Sep 13)
- Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 (Sep 13)
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