New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs Final — November 8, 2026
NYJStarting quarterbacksexpected startersKC
NYJOffense2026 regular season to dateKCNYJDefenseKCNYJRecent formKCNYJHome and roadseason to dateKCInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYJRest & travelKCNYJKey injuriesKCAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Jets (2-6) visited the Chiefs (5-2) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 9.
The Jets have the 11th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 19th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have the 4th-ranked offense and the 11th-ranked defense. When the Jets have the ball, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.044 EPA per play) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.034 allowed); when the Chiefs have it, a 4th-ranked offense (+0.126) meets a 19th-ranked defense (+0.023 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Jets offense is at 45.8% (10th) and the Chiefs offense at 47.7% (6th). Through the air, the Jets average +0.133 EPA per dropback (11th) against a Chiefs pass defense ranked 14th; the Chiefs average +0.150 (8th) against a Jets pass defense ranked 26th. The Jets score 21.2 points per game (25th) and allow 23.5 (16th); the Chiefs score 23.9 (11th) and allow 18.7 (4th).
Over the last five games, the Jets rank 13th on offense and 23rd on defense by EPA per play; the Chiefs rank 8th and 11th.
Patrick Mahomes has a 49.6% success rate (10th of 35 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Geno Smith's 48.4% (13th). Per dropback, Mahomes is at +0.154 EPA to Smith's +0.131, with 12 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions to Smith's 12 and 3.
The Jets are 2-6 and 3-3-2 against the spread; their last game was a 38-33 loss to the Raiders. The Chiefs are 5-2 and 3-4 against the spread; their last game was a 28-24 loss to the Broncos.
The Chiefs closed as 9.5-point favorites at home against the Jets. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 47.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jets +385, Chiefs -500) prices the Jets at 20% and the Chiefs at 80%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Jets 12, Kansas City Chiefs 35
Kansas City Chiefs won by 23.
- Against the closing spread (Kansas City Chiefs -9.5): Kansas City Chiefs covered.
- Combined score 47 vs the closing total of 47.5: Under.
- Kansas City Chiefs closed at -500 on the moneyline (a 80% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Jets 20%, Kansas City Chiefs 80%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:40 — Kansas City Chiefs ball, 3rd & 1 at KC 3464-H.Nourzad reportedNew York Jets 23% → 32% (+9 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:29 — New York Jets ball, 1st & 10 at NYJ 210-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 26 for 5 yards (32-N.Bolton). FUMBLES (32-N.Bolton), RECOVERED by KC-17-A.Gilman at NYJ 26. 17-A.Gilman to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (7-G.Smith).Kansas City Chiefs 72% → 83% (+11 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:45 — Kansas City Chiefs ball, 2nd & 11 at NYJ 25(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 9-K.Walker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Kansas City Chiefs 81% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:41 — Kansas City Chiefs ball, 2nd & 10 at KC 37(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 27 for -10 yards (31-D.Bailey). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey) [31-D.Bailey], RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at KC 30. KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play.New York Jets 15% → 25% (+10 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:37 — New York Jets ball, 4th & 15 at KC 3519-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.Kansas City Chiefs 81% → 86% (+6 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Jets | Points added | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| -8.4 | Passingdropbacks | -3.0 |
| -6.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.1 |
| +5.7 | Explosive plays5 plays · 11 plays | +15.9 |
| -4.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -9.1 |
| +7.5 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.7 |
| -1.9 | Penalties9 for 57 yds · 3 for 20 yds | +1.4 |
| -5.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 0 of 1 · 4 of 4 | +8.0 |
| -13.1 | All plays | +9.3 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 13.2 points to Kansas City Chiefs. The final margin was 23.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Kansas City Chiefs closed as the market favourite at 80% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Jets +9.5 (-108)
Jets +9.5 (-110)
Chiefs -522 81%
Chiefs -500 80%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Matchup
Players to watch
Adonai Mitchell has 265 receiving yards for the Jets (47th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 22.7%. Braelon Allen has 565 rushing yards on 112 carries (10th of 42 qualified running backs). Xavier Worthy has 230 receiving yards for the Chiefs (63rd of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 18.9%. Kenneth Walker III has 770 rushing yards on 141 carries (3rd of 42 qualified running backs).
- Carries112
- Rush yards56510th
- Yards per carry5.07th
- EPA per rush+0.00712th
- Rush success rate43.8%13th
- Targets / catches27 / 16
- Receiving yards26547th
- Target share22.7%24th
- Yards per target9.816th
- EPA per target+0.7155th
- Targets / catches23 / 17
- Receiving yards13635th
- Target share16.3%17th
- Yards per target5.933rd
- EPA per target+0.17025th
- Carries141
- Rush yards7703rd
- Yards per carry5.52nd
- EPA per rush+0.0755th
- Rush success rate44.7%11th
- Targets / catches41 / 27
- Receiving yards23063rd
- Target share18.9%40th
- Yards per target5.671st
- EPA per target−0.06070th
- Targets / catches42 / 29
- Receiving yards4105th
- Target share19.4%9th
- Yards per target9.83rd
- EPA per target+0.5156th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Jets | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJets offense vs Chiefs defense | 46.4%10th | 39.3%4th |
| Early-down success rateChiefs offense vs Jets defense | 45.3%26th | 48.1%5th |
| Early-down EPA per playJets offense vs Chiefs defense | +0.03716th | −0.0499th |
| Early-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Jets defense | +0.02817th | +0.0957th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJets offense vs Chiefs defense | 38.0%22nd | 39.2%13th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateChiefs offense vs Jets defense | 41.4%19th | 40.5%13th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playJets offense vs Chiefs defense | −0.04215th | +0.02819th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playChiefs offense vs Jets defense | +0.05322nd | +0.1976th |
| Red-zone TD rateJets offense vs Chiefs defense | 45.8%32nd | 42.1%5th |
| Red-zone TD rateChiefs offense vs Jets defense | 64.3%19th | 57.7%18th |
| Red-zone success rateJets offense vs Chiefs defense | 36.2%29th | 31.6%5th |
| Red-zone success rateChiefs offense vs Jets defense | 46.9%21st | 37.3%27th |
On early downs the Jets succeed on 46.4% of plays (10th) against a Chiefs defense that allows 39.3% (4th); on 3rd down they convert 38.0% (22nd) against a defense allowing 39.2% (13th). On early downs the Chiefs succeed on 48.1% of plays (5th) against a Jets defense that allows 45.3% (26th); on 3rd down they convert 40.5% (13th) against a defense allowing 41.4% (19th). The Jets score touchdowns on 45.8% of red-zone trips (32nd). The Chiefs score touchdowns on 57.7% of red-zone trips (18th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Jets | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Aaron Glenn | Andy Reid |
| Offensive coordinator | Frank Reich | Eric Bieniemy |
| Defensive coordinator | Brian Duker | Steve Spagnuolo |
| Offense tendencies | Jets | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −2.8%20th-highest | 3.9%2nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 59.4%18th-highest | 60.6%15th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 53.0%21st-highest | 56.2%13th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 57.4%22nd-highest | 61.4%17th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 3.5%26th-highest | 0.7%31st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.810th-slowest | 32.622nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 18.5%8th | 17.1%11th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.6%9th | 7.8%22nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 13.4%3rd | 13.9%2nd |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.2% | 8.4%27th | 3.5%3rd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.30%10th | 0.95%4th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.4 | 57.527th-most | 60.021st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.3% | 7 of 10 | 9 of 14 |
| Defense | Jets | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.2% | 7.2%9th | 3.4%31st |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 13.2%8th | 13.7%9th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 8.6%14th | 7.8%10th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 8.2%10th | 7.6%6th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.40%27th | 2.04%12th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.6% | 15.2%18th | 12.8%27th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.6% | 16.9%23rd | 16.1%17th |
The Jets run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.8% pass rate over expected, 20th-highest), while the Chiefs sit at 3.9% (2nd-highest). In neutral situations the Jets take 33.8 seconds between snaps and the Chiefs 32.6, so the Chiefs play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Jets have gone for it 7 of 10 times and the Chiefs 9 of 14.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2015: the Jets won 1 and the Chiefs 3. In the most recent meeting (October 1, 2023), the Chiefs won 23-20; the Chiefs averaged +0.169 EPA per play; the Jets averaged +0.020 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2023 | Chiefs 23, Jets 20 Chiefs won | Chiefs -9.5 Jets covered | 41.5 over | Chiefs +0.169 · Jets +0.020 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | Jets 9, Chiefs 35 Chiefs won | Chiefs -20 Chiefs covered | 49 under | Chiefs +0.297 · Jets −0.252 |
| Dec 3, 2017 | Chiefs 31, Jets 38 Jets won | Chiefs -3.5 Jets covered | 44 over | Chiefs +0.468 · Jets +0.224 |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Jets 3, Chiefs 24 Chiefs won | Chiefs -3 Chiefs covered | 44.5 under | Chiefs −0.105 · Jets −0.414 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New York Jets
- New York Jets team stats
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Nov 15)
- Las Vegas Raiders 38, New York Jets 33 (Nov 1)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- New York Jets 19, New England Patriots 26 (Oct 18)
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs team stats
- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (Nov 15)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Denver Broncos 28 (Nov 1)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Chargers 6, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (Oct 18)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on November 8, 2026
- Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17 (Nov 8)
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Nov 8)
- Detroit Lions 19, Miami Dolphins 9 (Nov 8)
- Cleveland Browns 22, New Orleans Saints 23 (Nov 8)
- New York Giants 19, Philadelphia Eagles 11 (Nov 8)
- Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13 (Nov 8)
- Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22 (Nov 8)
- Green Bay Packers 45, New England Patriots 27 (Nov 8)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, San Francisco 49ers 38 (Nov 8)
- Arizona Cardinals 3, Seattle Seahawks 17 (Nov 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Chicago Bears 27 (Nov 8)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results