Dallas Stars vs Buffalo Sabres Final — October 8, 2026
DALStarting goaliesBUF
DALOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)BUFDALDefenseBUFDALTeamBUFDAL5-on-5BUFDALSpecial teamsBUFDALRecent formBUFDALHome and roadseason to dateBUFInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelBUFDALKey injuriesBUFAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 8, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Stars (1-2-0) visited the Sabres (2-1-0) on Thursday, October 8 at 7:09 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Stars earned 68.3% of available standings points (3rd) and the Sabres 66.5% (4th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Stars 50.8% (13th), Sabres 50.5% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Stars 47.5% (27th), Sabres 49.3% (16th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Stars 55.9% (5th), Sabres 51.7% (13th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Stars -123, Sabres +100) prices the Stars at 52% and the Sabres at 48%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Stars 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Dallas Stars won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Buffalo Sabres +1.5): Dallas Stars covered.
- Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Dallas Stars closed at -123 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Buffalo Sabres 0
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Dallas Stars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Stars 53%, Buffalo Sabres 47%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 9:03 — Dallas Stars goal (1-0)Dallas Stars 52% → 68% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 9:36 — Dallas Stars goal (2-0)Dallas Stars 72% → 87% (+14 pts)
- 2nd 13:57 — Dallas Stars goal (3-0)Dallas Stars 89% → 96% (+8 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Buffalo Sabres won 51% of G&W replays (Dallas Stars 49%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Stars | Goals | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.1 |
| 1.0 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.7 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| +1.2 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -2.8 |
| +2.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jake Oettinger 26/26 · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 14/18 | -1.2 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
The line moved toward Dallas Stars before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Stars +1.5 (-252)
Stars -1.5 (+199)
Sabres -115 51%
Sabres +100 48%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Stars won 9 and the Sabres 5.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Stars 4, Sabres 3 SO Stars won | ||
| Dec 31, 2025 | Sabres 4, Stars 1 Sabres won | Stars -155 underdog won | 6 under |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Sabres 2, Stars 4 Stars won | Stars -220 favorite won | 6 push |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Stars 2, Sabres 4 Sabres won | Stars -155 underdog won | 6 push |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Sabres 2, Stars 3 Stars won | Stars -220 favorite won | 6 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Dallas Stars
- Dallas Stars team stats
- New Jersey Devils 5, Dallas Stars 1 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
Buffalo Sabres
More NHL games on October 8, 2026
- Utah Mammoth 1, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 8)
- Vancouver Canucks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 7 (Oct 8)
- Nashville Predators 5, Montréal Canadiens 2 (Oct 8)
- Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 8)
- Minnesota Wild 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (Oct 8)
- Chicago Blackhawks 1, New York Islanders 4 (Oct 8)
- San Jose Sharks 3, St Louis Blues 2 (Oct 8)
- Colorado Avalanche 7, Calgary Flames 3 (Oct 8)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 8)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results