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NHL · October 8, 2026

Colorado Avalanche vs Calgary Flames Final — October 8, 2026

Colorado Avalanche

2-1-0

Goalie Scott Wedgewood Confirmed

FINAL

Calgary Flames

0-3-0

Goalie Devin Cooley Confirmed

Thursday, October 8 · 9:10 PM ET

COLStarting goaliesCGY

This season

—

Starts

—

Sv%

.880

—

HDSv%

1.000

—

GSAx

−0.3

Last season

Starts

.921

Sv%

.909

.850

HDSv%

.854

+22.3

GSAx

+15.0

COLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CGY

1st3.68

GF/G

2.5932nd

30th5.91

PP GF/60

5.7531st

COLDefenseCGY

1st2.48

GA/G

3.1621st

1st5.55

PK GA/60

7.1312th

COLTeamCGY

1st73.8%

Pts%

47.0%29th

1st56.6%

xGF%

47.2%27th

2nd56.7%

CF%

49.2%17th

6th54.8%

HDCF%

46.9%23rd

COL5-on-5CGY

2nd3.02

xGF/60

2.3524th

6th2.32

xGA/60

2.6324th

13th9.8%

Sh%

7.8%31st

1st92.2%

Sv%

90.6%13th

1st122.7

CF/60 (both)

118.25th

12th+0.09

GAx/G

−0.2429th

3rd+0.37

GSAx/G

+0.149th

21st10.0%

Sh%

8.5%32nd

1st91.4%

Sv%

90.3%6th

3rd57.4%

xGF% (L20)

42.4%30th

COLSpecial teamsCGY

25th7.09

PP xG/60

6.6830th

10th81.3

PP FF/60

71.628th

1st5.4

PP min/G

4.621st

6th6.95

PK xGA/60

7.8118th

20th4.8

PK min/G

4.716th

COLRecent formCGY

Wvs LAK 8-4Wvs STL 6-1L@ WPG 2-3

Resultsoldest to newest

Lvs SEA 1-6L@ VAN 1-4L@ SEA 1-6

Game by game

2-1-0

Record

0-3-0

2-1

Over–under

2-1

COLHome and roadseason to dateCGY

2-0-0

Home record

0-1-0

Road record

0-2-0

2-0

Home O/U

1-0

0-1

Road O/U

1-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

COLRest & travelCGY

1 dayback-to-back

Days of rest

4 days

746 mi1,201 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

COLKey injuriesCGY

None listed

Players out or limited

Jonathan Huberdeau LWIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 8, 8:10 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Avalanche (2-1-0) visited the Flames (0-3-0) on Thursday, October 8 at 9:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Flames scored 2.59 goals per game (32nd of 32) and allowed 3.16 (21st). The Avalanche earned 73.8% of available standings points (1st) and the Flames 47.0% (29th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Avalanche 56.6% (1st), Flames 47.2% (27th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Avalanche 56.7% (2nd), Flames 49.2% (17th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Avalanche 54.8% (6th), Flames 46.9% (23rd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Avalanche -245, Flames +195) prices the Avalanche at 68% and the Flames at 32%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Colorado Avalanche 7, Calgary Flames 3

Colorado Avalanche won by 4.

Against the closing spread (Calgary Flames +1.5): Colorado Avalanche covered.
Combined score 10 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Colorado Avalanche closed at -245 on the moneyline (a 68% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Colorado Avalanche 7
Calgary Flames 3

Decided

In regulation

Colorado Avalanche won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

68%Market at the close32%

Colorado AvalancheCalgary Flames

67%Market at the open33%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Colorado Avalanche.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Colorado Avalanche 67%, Calgary Flames 33%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 15:54 — Colorado Avalanche goal (1-0)Colorado Avalanche 65% → 80% (+15 pts)
1st 17:30 — Calgary Flames goal (1-1)Calgary Flames 20% → 35% (+15 pts)
2nd 6:45 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-1)Colorado Avalanche 63% → 81% (+17 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

51%COL

Share of G&W replays won

49%CGY

2.5

Expected goals

2.4

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Colorado Avalanche won 51% of G&W replays (Calgary Flames 49%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Avalanche	Goals	Flames
2.1	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.2
0.2	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.1
0.2	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
2.5	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.4
0.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.5
+4.5	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.6
-0.6	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Scott Wedgewood 26/29 · Devin Cooley 23/30	-4.5

Bar left: Avalanche gainedBar right: Flames gained

How the margin was built, from Colorado Avalanche's side:

Chances +0.1Finishing & goaltending +3.9Colorado Avalanche by 4

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 68% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenFlames +1.5 (-126)
Avalanche -1.5 (+105)

CloseFlames +1.5 (-125)
Avalanche -1.5 (+101)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +106 / u -131)

Close6.5 (o +104 / u -127)

Moneyline

OpenAvalanche -230 67%
Flames +190 33%

CloseAvalanche -245 68%
Flames +195 32%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Avalanche won 14 and the Flames 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Apr 14, 2026	Avalanche 3, Flames 1 Avalanche won
Apr 9, 2026	Flames 1, Avalanche 3 Avalanche won
Mar 30, 2026	Flames 2, Avalanche 9 Avalanche won	Avalanche -375 favorite won	6 over
Mar 31, 2025	Flames 3, Avalanche 2 SO Flames won	Avalanche -275 underdog won	6.5 under
Mar 14, 2025	Avalanche 4, Flames 2 Avalanche won	Avalanche -210 favorite won	5.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams